Thanks everyone! We will take a tour on 8/16 and meet up with our guide afterwards. If we like what we see on the tour, we will discuss with him the advantages of buying a fixed week for 4th of July vs breaking our point total into 4 small contracts. (Any opinions on that are welcome!)
I did look to see what the current price for 10 nights next summer over the holiday would be ($5818 before tax) and applied the max possible discount of 30% ($4818) just to see what a cash stay might cost us. A preferred camp spot would run $2148 before tax, before any discount.
We have hope that future plans for the trust will make this less of a gamble for long term popularity/demand/whatever … but regardless, for us, in our specific situation, we think it will be worth it. I will definitely come back after our tour and give an update on what we end up doing!
Again, I appreciate everyone taking the time to chime in. The posts advising against made us think hard about what mattered to us, and the encouraging posts helped us realize that if it makes sense for us, we should do it. What’s a few more DVC points in the overall scheme of things!