*Confirmed* G+ Changes to Advanced Lightning Lane

[Brian Noble]

Disney probably makes the least on AP's, then children. I would guess their target moneymaker these days is Disney adults.

The good thing about children is that they generally come packaged with an adult.

 

[MJJME]

Lol. Sorry, I should have just made up a story to tell.

https://www.disneytouristblog.com/lower-attendance-hotel-occupancy-disney-world/


Sorry, i shouldnt have made it up.....oh wait, i didnt.....its real!

 

[Brian Noble]

Decreases from pandemic revenge travel to Florda (one of the first places to reopen) are so very shocking and unexpected.

 

[clarker99]

https://www.disneytouristblog.com/lower-attendance-hotel-occupancy-disney-world/


Sorry, i shouldnt have made it up.....oh wait, i didnt.....its real!

That story is from Earnings reported for July to Sept 2023. You have told us that bookings are down for 2024 and specifically deluxe bookings.

This is not true....hotel bookings are down in 2024 and thats with current promotions

And we will not have any data for 2024 until the next earning report.

We will never know if what hotel type is down/up and how well a promo worked. 100% things are less than peak revenge travel but so is everywhere in central FLA.

 

[mum2simon]

That is not a fair comparison. You probably have the Floridian Seasonal or Power Pass that gives you no access for months to their TWO parks. A more comparable AP to Disney's Incredipass would be the Premier, which is currently $905.00.

We aren't Florida residents, there were random blackout dates - but not whole months. We tend to travel in May, August or September so there were no blackout dates that affected our travel. We are paying $4620 for six 10 day park hopper tickets to Disney....we got over 20 days in at the Universal Parks (all three) for $2000 less...and the hotels (for my family of six) were also a fraction of the cost. First visit was a family suite for $99/night, second visit was a 2 bedroom family suite for $129/night. A family suite at Disney costs on average 450/night... I think in general it is a fair comparison. A two week trip at Universal with water parks cost me $3786 (that included the seasons passes that gave us a return trip for another couple of weeks), a two week trip to Disney (with water parks) is costing us $10,540 (staying in two value rooms, not even a family suite, that was more $)

 

[Brian Noble]

Decreases from pandemic revenge travel are so very shocking and unexpected.

More generally: A Thing Happens--attendance or room occupancy changes, revenues go up or down, etc.--and The Thing is due to a large set of factors that come together in a complex way. But, everyone rushes to explain The Thing with the One Reason For It All.

Usually the One Reason is in service of some narrative that each person is trying to put forward, consciously or not.

 

[MJJME]

That story is from Earnings reported for July to Sept 2023. You have told us that bookings are down for 2024 and specifically deluxe bookings.

And we will not have any data for 2024 until the next earning report.

We will never know if what hotel type is down/up and how well a promo worked. 100% things are less than peak revenge travel but so is everywhere in central FLA.

Trust me, they are down....thats why they have all these promotions....and deluxe is down more than every other category.....and this report directly contradicts your chart

 

[clarker99]

Trust me, they are down....thats why they have all these promotions....and deluxe is down more than every other category.....and this report directly contradicts your chart

Trust me? Lol. Guest spend is up $100/room night vs pre-Covid. That is a fact. If Deluxe are down a lot then value/moderate guests are spending like crazy at their hotel and I think Disney would be fine with the revenue generated.

 

[mum2simon]

Trust me? Lol. Guest spend is up $100/room night vs pre-Covid. That is a fact. If Deluxe are down a lot then value/moderate guests are spending like crazy on resort and I think Disney would be fine with the revenue generated.View attachment 836018

Guest spending might be up - but why and how?

There is so little data here to actually draw any meaningful conclusions. Guest spending can be up AND Deluxe resorts can be lower occupancy. Those can both be true! My general belief is that things are just costing more (no "free dining" until recently means that guests were spending more on food, genie+ at $25/pp per day etc).

 

[starlite_]

Trust me, they are down....thats why they have all these promotions....and deluxe is down more than every other category.....and this report directly contradicts your chart

Insert "Source? Trust me bro" meme.

 

[clarker99]

Guest spending might be up - but why and how?

There is so little data here to actually draw any meaningful conclusions. Guest spending can be up AND Deluxe resorts can be lower occupancy. Those can both be true! My general belief is that things are just costing more (no "free dining" until recently means that guests were spending more on food, genie+ at $25/pp per day etc).

I never claimed to know why it is up. It is just up and it has maintained. Almost like that is a number that Disney targeted.

I will admit that I am in deep on the data and the numbers. Post-covid Disney has been much more focused on maintaining margins in the parks/hotels. Less people in the parks has been a mandate and we still have not seen that lifted (maybe relaxed a bit). They are still limiting AP access and certain ticket types still need reservations. Steep discounts have not really come about to help replace the 50th/revenge travel crowds. My current feelings are that Disney is fine selling less hotel rooms and having less attendance as long as they can maintain margins. Things are still busy enough and they are making more money that ever from domestic theme parks.

Sorry for de-railing this thread. If people are interested in carrying on about this DM me.

 

[Brian Noble]

They are still limiting AP access and certain ticket types still need reservations.

For example, MK and EP are currently booked for any ticket requiring park reservations for the runDisney weekend this week. Which tickets require park reservaitons? APs, student groups, sports events, and convention tickets.

In other words, the tickets people use to get in for a discount.

 

[clarker99]

For example, MK and EP are currently booked for any ticket requiring park reservations for the runDisney weekend this week. Which tickets require park reservaitons? APs, student groups, sports events, and convention tickets.

In other words, the tickets people use to get in for a discount.

Yes and this is why people should be spending less time looking at attendance or hotel rooms sold. They are not cramming people into WDW like 2019. That is not the current business model.

 

[Brian Noble]

For example, MK and EP are currently booked for any ticket requiring park reservations for the runDisney weekend this week.

Correction: APs are only blocked for Saturday at MK. It's the group and convention tickets that are blocked the whole weekend.

 

[Philsfan77]

Trust me, they are down....thats why they have all these promotions....and deluxe is down more than every other category.....and this report directly contradicts your chart

They've always had these promotions. Mousesavers actually keeps track of promotions going back 5 years. If you check the ones that ran for 2019-2020 leading into covid they aren't much different than the current ones, except now they have added some Disney+ offers (didn't exist then). OrlandoParksGuy also tracks them going back even further going back over 10 years.

Year over Year data does nothing for me right now...it's data in a non-anniversary year compared to the 50th. Lets see what the numbers look like next year when we are comparing non-anniversary years against each other, but to your point...they should be down against the 50th.

 

[ChipnDale79]

They've always had these promotions. Mousesavers actually keeps track of promotions going back 5 years. If you check the ones that ran for 2019-2020 leading into covid they aren't much different than the current ones, except now they have added some Disney+ offers (didn't exist then). OrlandoParksGuy also tracks them going back even further going back over 10 years.

Year over Year data does nothing for me right now...it's data in a non-anniversary year compared to the 50th. Lets see what the numbers look like next year when we are comparing non-anniversary years against each other, but to your point...they should be down against the 50th.

i mean yeah...but a few years ago Iger stated that they didnt have a need for some of the promos they had and were going to start rolling them back. Dont ask me to find the article, if you dont believe me, thats fine. Covid and revenge travel gave them a chance to do just that.

the parks have been reopened from Covid for almost 4 years now, free dining hasnt been offered since the parks shut down for covid, until this summer. They're not offering free dining if attendance hasnt ticked down some.

I"m not saying is way down, but i'm saying revenge travel is probably over, and they arent getting as many guests as they did in 22 or 23.

 

[MJJME]

Trust me? Lol. Guest spend is up $100/room night vs pre-Covid. That is a fact. If Deluxe are down a lot then value/moderate guests are spending like crazy at their hotel and I think Disney would be fine with the revenue generated.View attachment 836018

Thats not spend on the room....Its spend overall.....mainly b of Genie+/ILL sales

 

[clarker99]

Thats not spend on the room....Its spend overall.....mainly b of Genie+/ILL sales

No, it is per room guest spend at hotel only. Genie+/ILL is put into 'Theme Park Admission'.

 

[Minnie1222]

We aren't Florida residents, there were random blackout dates - but not whole months.

I think it's great that Universal offers different AP levels. I don't think it's fair to mention an Universal AP for $400 without discussing its limitations. If you're not from Florida, then the rate you got is a renewal rate, since none of the non-Floridian passes are sold for $400 or less right now.

Regarding the block out dates, this is what's being shown right now on the Universal sites for their 15 month AP.


For a Power Pass, there are 42 guaranteed block out dates and 10 potential block out dates. That is almost 2 months of no access.

For a Seasonal Pass, there are 93 block outs plus another 10 concert dates. That's over 3 months with no access.

 

[Philsfan77]

i mean yeah...but a few years ago Iger stated that they didnt have a need for some of the promos they had and were going to start rolling them back. Dont ask me to find the article, if you dont believe me, thats fine. Covid and revenge travel gave them a chance to do just that.

the parks have been reopened from Covid for almost 4 years now, free dining hasnt been offered since the parks shut down for covid, until this summer. They're not offering free dining if attendance hasnt ticked down some.

I"m not saying is way down, but i'm saying revenge travel is probably over, and they arent getting as many guests as they did in 22 or 23.

In a way...we are saying the same thing. I just have no interest in comparing the current dip against what was ultimately Disney's super bowl years. Truly a perfect storm where everything that could go their way, went their way to spike attendance (revenge travel, the 50th, interest rate freezes on college loans, money literally handed out to families for thousands of dollars between the CARES ACT and American Rescue Plan, overseas travel restrictions). Trying to judge today against that backdrop from the end of 2021 to spring break 2023 is going to guarantee Disney looks like it's losing customers. Bringing back promotions that they regularly ran pre-covid doesn't spell doom or desperation to me which some of the posters seem to be feeling, rather just a return to normal, and its also a trend I see from some of the more sensationalized bloggers looking for clicks. Now if next year numbers dip again, and the year after that numbers dip again...maybe it's something to really look into.