Concern about potential resale restrictions in coming years for older resorts

[Sandisw]

If 50% of the total amount of points used at 2042 resorts are foreign, doesn’t it mean that 50% of the “home” points are used at non 2042 resorts? I’m relatively new to this. So correct me if I am wrong.

In this situation, I guess, after 2042 points are gone, the availability before 7-months window at non 2042 resorts will reduce, but there might not be as much a demand for them after 7-months window. Or CCV, VGF, or whatever resorts will become the new 2042 resorts that everyone would want to stay at that are hard to book at 7-months. But there are resorts like SSR that will still be mostly available at 7-months.

I think that was the point. Not all resorts get equal demand at 7 months and BWV and BCV are two very popular ones.

With those gone, and the potential that resale buyers since 2019 can’t stay at newer resorts, the demand for places near parks that are left will increase.

People who want to stay at places like SSR buy SSR, they don’t buy VGF or BLT to stay there.

It’s why SSR has long been a good choice for SAP. At one time, we had 500 there for that purpose but sold 200 last year to replace with VGF to get VGF home resort priority.

As time goes on, with more restricted resorts those with direct points will find it easier to trade at 7 months to the more popular resorts.

 

[PrincessKL]

I think that was the point. Not all resorts get equal demand at 7 months and BWV and BCV are two very popular ones.

With those gone, and the potential that resale buyers since 2019 can’t stay at newer resorts, the demand for places near parks that are left will increase.

People who want to stay at places like SSR buy SSR, they don’t buy VGF or BLT to stay there.

It’s why SSR has long been a good choice for SAP. At one time, we had 500 there for that purpose but sold 200 last year to replace with VGF to get VGF home resort priority.

As time goes on, with more restricted resorts those with direct points will find it easier to trade at 7 months to the more popular resorts.

That’s probably what Disney wants to see and hence they implemented the resale restriction. We have some BLT resale points that we are going to replace by direct points in the future because of FOMO. Maybe I should keep them if BLT will be the next BWV.

 

[Bearval]

I am ready to add on! I am having a very hard time trying to decide how and where.

I am a current, direct owner at AKV. I want to add on in the EPCOT/Skyliner area.

My top choice would be to get a resale contract for Boardwalk, but I am concerned. It currently has an end date of 2042. I am betting that DVC will offer a contract extension, much like they did at OKW years ago, however, with the restrictions they have been adding to resale over the years, I am worried that this might not be available to resale owners. I don't want to spend this kind of $ to only have it 19 years.

My next choice would be direct with Riviera. I do not like the Riviera resale restrictions, so I really don't think I want resale. I want to be able to use my points anywhere.

I would appreciate everyone's thoughts on this.

There will never be another extension. With the exception of OKW the other 2042 WDW locations will most likely be torn down and rebuilt due to the aging infrastructure and the higher costs to maintain it. Also the points charts will skyrocket. The non- WDW 2042 locations most likely will be sold off.

 

[Cyberc1978]

If 50% of the total amount of points used at 2042 resorts are foreign, doesn’t it mean that 50% of the “home” points are used at non 2042 resorts? I’m relatively new to this. So correct me if I am wrong.

In this situation, I guess, after 2042 points are gone, the availability before 7-months window at non 2042 resorts will reduce, but there might not be as much a demand for them after 7-months window. Or CCV, VGF, or whatever resorts will become the new 2042 resorts that everyone would want to stay at that are hard to book at 7-months. But there are resorts like SSR that will still be mostly available at 7-months.

Potentially your are correct that 50% of 2042 points are used at foreign resorts. But I would also assume that some of those 50% is expiring points that go unused, others are banked to the year after.

Yeah after 2042 there will come new hard to book resorts - My best bet is that those resorts will be ones without restrictions because unrestricted resale points will have nowhere else to go.

Restricted resale points will be left at their home resort and eventually they will book up fast, because either you use them or lose them.

That will leave direct points back with less availability at their home resort but also at other resorts.

To put things in perspective BCV, BWV, HHI, VB and BRV have almost 13mio points total. SSR alone have 14mio points, and could fully book them all. Most owners at SSR are using them as SAP.

I foresee AKV(Jambo), BLT, CCV, VGF and PVB, resorts are being fully booked when the 7 months window opens after 2042.

That leaves AKV(Kidani), OKW and SSR. AUL have 11mio points and I dont know if they are being used at SAP too.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

You could consider Polynesian too. It's right next to the TTC, so you could take the Epcot monorail with no transfer.

 

[intamin]

That’s probably what Disney wants to see and hence they implemented the resale restriction. We have some BLT resale points that we are going to replace by direct points in the future because of FOMO. Maybe I should keep them if BLT will be the next BWV.

This is the thing though, if you own at the resorts you love, the ability to switch at 7 months doesn’t matter to you. You always have the option to buy some direct points to add on to stay at new resorts but places like VGF, BLT, Poly if you love staying there then who cares what expires when. That’s why for me the resorts I own if I only was able to use these points at their respective resorts I don’t really care. With me likely adding poly in the near future, doing a split stay between AKV, poly and RIV in any combination sounds great to me. The people who are really hurt by these restrictions are people who own resale SAP at a resort they don’t like. If I owned SAP at SSR I wouldn’t care because I love congress park but I know there are people on here who have bought SSR and have no intention of using those points there.

 

[Sandisw]

This is the thing though, if you own at the resorts you love, the ability to switch at 7 months doesn’t matter to you. You always have the option to buy some direct points to add on to stay at new resorts but places like VGF, BLT, Poly if you love staying there then who cares what expires when. That’s why for me the resorts I own if I only was able to use these points at their respective resorts I don’t really care. With me likely adding poly in the near future, doing a split stay between AKV, poly and RIV in any combination sounds great to me. The people who are really hurt by these restrictions are people who own resale SAP at a resort they don’t like. If I owned SAP at SSR I wouldn’t care because I love congress park but I know there are people on here who have bought SSR and have no intention of using those points there.

To add, I think that the buy where you want to stay is going to be more important for resale buyers as the new DVC product continues to grow...because those options for good trades will be less and less, with more and more people trying for them.

Direct buyers will at least continue to have nice options, assuming they stay on the trend of resale restrictions. So, in 2042, if those resorts all come out as new, at least as a direct buyer you have a chance to move to some of the other new resorts that offer close to park access!

 

[NEW-B]

There will never be another extension. With the exception of OKW the other 2042 WDW locations will most likely be torn down and rebuilt due to the aging infrastructure and the higher costs to maintain it. Also the points charts will skyrocket. The non- WDW 2042 locations most likely will be sold off.

They won't be torn down. Boardwalk was built in '96, Beach Club in '90. We're not talking about the 1890s. Unless there was a significant problem with a particular structure, its not going to fall apart.

 

[dioxide45]

There will never be another extension. With the exception of OKW the other 2042 WDW locations will most likely be torn down and rebuilt due to the aging infrastructure and the higher costs to maintain it. Also the points charts will skyrocket. The non- WDW 2042 locations most likely will be sold off.

I would tend to agree. If they just resell points at the 2042 resorts, those properties will be over 100 years old when the new HOAs expire. I suppose they could modernize them when they expire, but that is not a cheap endeavor. I wonder if DVC will jack up the maintenance fees in the last few years to try and bring the resorts up to newer standards before they expire?

 

[Sandisw]

I would tend to agree. If they just resell points at the 2042 resorts, those properties will be over 100 years old when the new HOAs expire. I suppose they could modernize them when they expire, but that is not a cheap endeavor. I wonder if DVC will jack up the maintenance fees in the last few years to try and bring the resorts up to newer standards before they expire?

They won’t be able to do that since any upgrades during those last few years have to be based on the condition is should be when returning to Disney.

For example, they can’t ask current owners to pay foe a full refurb when a typically one was done every 7 years.

Matter of fact, at some point toward the end, they will no longer be charging owners for capital reserves, and any left over money goes back to all owners in the end.

 

[dioxide45]

They won’t be able to do that since any upgrades during those last few years have to be based on the condition is should be when returning to Disney.

For example, they can’t ask current owners to pay foe a full refurb when a typically one was done every 7 years.

Matter of fact, at some point toward the end, they will no longer be charging owners for capital reserves, and any left over money goes back to all owners in the end.

Couldn't one say it should be returned to Disney in the same condition it was conveyed to the HOA in? Is the condition of the resort upon expiration specified in the POS?

 

[Sandisw]

Couldn't one say it should be returned to Disney in the same condition it was conveyed to the HOA in? Is the condition of the resort upon expiration specified in the POS?

No, there is no set language in that. But , you would not give it back in same condition but in the condition it should be in at expiration.

Basically, they can’t make an owner pay for something that they will no longer be elgible to use.

Capital reserves are to maintain the resort when it is owned, not to renovate it so Disney gets a brand new resort back.

Since DVCMC is an arm of Disney it will be a balancing act because they are not going to let it get run down, as owners wouldn’t want that..but if the normal life of, say a roof, is 30 years and it’s put on with 20 years left, they can’t turn around and do a new one a second time.

 

[kanerf]

2042 will not matter much to me as I am 63 now. That said, I think they may offer some kind of deal to owners to keep their points. It would be instant money for them.

 

[Bearval]

They won't be torn down. Boardwalk was built in '96, Beach Club in '90. We're not talking about the 1890s. Unless there was a significant problem with a particular structure, its not going to fall apart.

I will have to disagree with you on that, to sell "new 40 or 50 year" contracts will have the resorts pushing 100 years old. The infrastructure was never designed to last that long. Not a good look for disney if they are having to replace sewer lines and plumbing halfway thru the new contracts and having to send owners a "special assessment" for a few thousand for the repairs.

 

[supersnoop]

Couldn't one say it should be returned to Disney in the same condition it was conveyed to the HOA in? Is the condition of the resort upon expiration specified in the POS?

Wouldn't that be empty land? Other than the more recent conversions, weren't these all built from the ground up as DVC?

 

[Nursemanit]

I will have to disagree with you on that, to sell "new 40 or 50 year" contracts will have the resorts pushing 100 years old. The infrastructure was never designed to last that long. Not a good look for disney if they are having to replace sewer lines and plumbing halfway thru the new contracts and having to send owners a "special assessment" for a few thousand for the repairs

Are they tearing down the 50-year-old Contemporary and Poly?

 

[Cfabar1]

The people who will be the ones making these decisions at best are the ones who are earning their ears either at disney or somewhere else today….

It’s entirely possible they are even in high school Right now….

Buying a timeshare is great, but if you worry about the what-ifs of the future, there are so many more with a timeshare instead of a vacation home or just paying cash. To me, the unknowns are what in essence are baked into the savings premium as well.

 

[maui22]

Are they tearing down the 50-year-old Contemporary and Poly?

Poly DVC longhouses were originally hotel side. They gutted to the bones and rebuilt the interiors.
It would not surprise me if DVC did the same to WDW DVC resorts expiring in 2042. Too much money for Disney to not gut and modernize interiors of BCV and BWV and sell with higher point charts.

 

[Cfabar1]

Poly DVC longhouses were originally hotel side. They gutted to the bones and rebuilt the interiors.
It would not surprise me if DVC did the same to WDW DVC resorts expiring in 2042. Too much money for Disney to not gut and modernize interiors of BCV and BWV and sell with higher point charts.

Who says they have to touch an inch of it to resell with higher points charts?

My guess is they could do 30-50% increase without doing much, if any renovations and they would still sell through very quickly… the location is so good, especially in a country where all the millenials will be buying DVC with lots of $$s (peak earning years), with older or grown kids who they’ll want to take to EPCOT or go alone and enjoy EPCOT resort area….

There might be an extremely limited business case for substantial renovations at that time, espcially if they maintain the property through to the end.

 

[take36]

This is the thing though, if you own at the resorts you love, the ability to switch at 7 months doesn’t matter to you. You always have the option to buy some direct points to add on to stay at new resorts but places like VGF, BLT, Poly if you love staying there then who cares what expires when. That’s why for me the resorts I own if I only was able to use these points at their respective resorts I don’t really care. With me likely adding poly in the near future, doing a split stay between AKV, poly and RIV in any combination sounds great to me. The people who are really hurt by these restrictions are people who own resale SAP at a resort they don’t like. If I owned SAP at SSR I wouldn’t care because I love congress park but I know there are people on here who have bought SSR and have no intention of using those points there.

Love SSR! I don't own any points there and have used my GCV and BLT points there. No regrets and I'll do it again.

Any SSR room/section you recommend? I book at the 7 month window so I always just ask for the "best available" and so far got what I assume to be the regular rooms. Would love to hear suggestions and try it out.