Comparison between DVC resale inventory - '08 vs. '09

[checkwriter]

As an exercise, I made some comparisons between the Timeshare Store's available inventory lists from Jan. 22, 2008 and Jan. 22, 2009.

Available inventory (including pending sales):

2008: 250
2009: 344
Change: up 37%

So there is more for sale in 2009, which is not a big surprise given the economy.

I next looked at the range of per-point asking prices (not counting pending sales). They are generally down, though it's hard to make exact comparisons because of differences in banked or borrowed points; also, I didn't weight the asking prices, so if even one person was asking a very high or low amount I included it. This was meant only to be a rough look at the market.

So there appears to be more selection at better prices in '09 than there was a year ago.

This is probably not news, but it's interesting to see the numbers.

Here are the ranges for each property.

AK
2008: 94.50 - 104
2009: 86.90 - 97

BC
2008: 88-92
2009: 82-100

BW
2008: 80-88
2009: 74-85

HH
2008: 65-76
2009: 60-72

OKW
2008: 72-86
2009: 65-90

SS
2008: 78-94
2009: 68-86

VB
2008: 62.50 - 75
2009: 47.50 - 75

WL
2008: 78-87
2009: 77-82

 

[disneynutz]

Aren't you going to compute the price reductions as a percentage?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Aren't you going to compute the price reductions as a percentage?

On the ball there!!

 

[disneyeveryyear]

There may be more inventory for sale this year, but there is also more inventory that has been sold.

I think it would be more accurate to find out what % of total points are for sale for each year.

Of course, I have no idea where to get that information, but I would think it wouldn't show a 37% increase for 2009.

However, I do feel the economy has impacted new and resales also.

 

[blondietink]

I think to be fair on the prices, you would need to look at the individual contracts and figure out if they are stripped of points or if all points are available for the current use year and beyond. You can buy a contract relatively cheaply, but you might not have any points available until 2011. Of course, this would be difficult if not impossible to figure out, but thought I would throw it out there.

 

[DisneyWalker44]

Good info - with the caveats others have thrown out. Another caveat to consider is that their market share of the DVC Resale market may have changed.

 

[checkwriter]

All good points. Implementing them would take this from a "back of the envelope" exercise to one that might challenge someone with a Ph.d in statistical analysis.

Thanks!

 

[dd08]

Good work,
What I would like to see is another comparison a year from now and see the difference then.

Between the economy (which I think 2009 will be even worse overall ), changes, etc, I have a feeling it's going to be a bigger increase.

 

[deide71]

I'm not a number cruncher, speaking strictly anecdotally here, there are some very good contracts (not stripped) in the low to mid 70's for SSR resales. I haven't seen that before.

I have been considering adding on, but I was waiting until DVC released the prices and incentives for the new set of SSR points they have to sell with the Treehouse villas opening. However, I seriously doubt they will comapre to the resale market.

 

[Disney Todd]

Thanks for putting these figures together; very interesting and informative. When buying into AKV last year through Disney, I looked closely at the resale market and didn't find the price savings to be meaningful given the incentives ($8 off a pt), double points (via difficult to use developer pts) and a $500 gift card, and small closing costs.

I did recently speak with my DVC rep in considering the opportunity to buy a small amount of pts at the new BLT. She indicated that despite the economy, DVC sold 35-40% more contracts in 2008 than ever before with the offered explanation that people were less inclined to buy a second home. What I have been surprised by is the current rack rate pricing of $112 per pt. It seems there is now a significantly wider gap between reslaes at the Timeshare Store and the direct pricing. It certainly makes buying on resale a lot more compelling.

 

[kerickson]

something else to factor in is that each contract has one year's worth of points less than last year, so'd I'd expect the resale price to keep going down as you get closer to the expiration date. The new 100pt min will also impact resales. Some resorts (BLT, VGC) won't have many small contracts, and those that are resold may not make it to the boards.

 

[logan115]

something else to factor in is that each contract has one year's worth of points less than last year, so'd I'd expect the resale price to keep going down as you get closer to the expiration date.

Great point ! And since I'm not going to be able to go back to WDW until May 10 at the earliest my procrastination in buying DVC is working to my advantage

 

[OneMoreTry]

Prediction: One year from now there will be MORE resales yet AND DVC will be letting them go at lower prices.