Comments on the Comcast Deal

[FantasticDisFamily]

Ok, let's take a deep breath here. Comcast doesn't have Disney yet! So while speculating on what might happen in implementation is an interesting intellectual exercise we shouldn't panic.

There have been some interesting theories as to the potential strategic purpose behind this raised. And it has already provided fodder for interesting classroom discussion for me and my students!

Carry on folks - I do love having your ideas to build on!

Deb
(a.k.a The Professor)

P.S. I've been away from this section of the boards except for some lurking for quite a while.

 

[Mr D]

Comcast should partner in with Oriental Land Company and sell the US Disney parks to them, or at the very least make an exchange offer of what OLC pays to Disco for the rights of the Disney name and do the same managment to the US Disney parks. in other words OLC buys the Disney parks but still pays the percentage of profits back to Comcast. Could be likely unless somebody else locally wants the theme parks.

 

[DisFlan]

We may all have a new take on what "Save Disney" means. Probably a whole lot more than poor 'ole Roy intended. This deal could likely spin way beyond anything he can control in any meaningful way.

BUT- as of this morning, the upshot of DIS stock looks to possibly make the Comcast deal too expensive per share. They might have to throw in real cash. So we can't see this as a done deal, yet.

If Comcast (or anyone else) persists and pays more than they'd like, it's MORE likely that we'd see a sell-off of some components and less near-term investment in what remains.

Whatever happens it'll be a good show.

DisFlan

 

[tfc3rid]

Right...

It will probably mean a lot more cash will be required t oclose the deal and as AV says on this post, the most likely scenario would be to spin off the parks, resorts, cruise line, etc...

Very sad.

 

[disneyfan551]

Sorry, but nothing about this is "a good show" to me. I'm really worried that we are going to lose the Disney magic...

 

[tfc3rid]

That which has not been lost already will soon be gone.

 

[DisneyKidds]

As for DIS stock going up and making the deal too expensive, or Comcast raising cash.....................Comcast has a lot of room to play with and can likely take their offer up quite a bit if need be. Comcast would save $10 billion over the next 5 years just on fees they wouldn't have to pay to carry ESPN on their system if they make this work.

 

[YoHo]

I'm probably going to have to repost this in another thread, but so what.

crusader and others poo pooing Jobs for this position based on time to market and so forth. What do you understand about Film production and Disney parks that I'm missing?
Finding Nemo didn't make all that money, because Pixar got it out the door first. Granted, When you release a picture during the year will influence that, but it isn't the same as the electronics industry where price and speed to market are the only things that matter.
Quality production and attention to detail are what matter in the entertainment industry. That's why it's a cottage industry. Theme parks are the same. The quality of the parks and the quality of the attractions is what is important. This is what Steve Jobs excels at. Further, whether it is The Woz, or ohn Lassiter, Jobs knows to get good creative and intelligent talent to do what they do best which is the HEART of what Walt Disney did. I think Jobs would be an excellent Hollywood CEO.

 

[DisFlan]

Originally posted by disneyfan551
Sorry, but nothing about this is "a good show" to me. I'm really worried that we are going to lose the Disney magic...

You don't like to see Eisner squirm?

 

[DisFlan]

Originally posted by DisneyKidds
As for DIS stock going up and making the deal too expensive, or Comcast raising cash.....................Comcast has a lot of room to play with and can likely take their offer up quite a bit if need be. Comcast would save $10 billion over the next 5 years just on fees they wouldn't have to pay to carry ESPN on their system if they make this work.

I don't think Comcast would have to raise cash, but they certainly can. A staight stock swap would be easier for them, if it isn't too expensive. It's not like there aren't lots of Eisner enemies who wouldn't want to kick in some bucks on the deal. Eisner has blown up a lot of bridges in his past. (Weinstein, Katzenberg, Jobs etc etc etc....)

And as the months go by, Disney stock may not stay up where it is. Disney's best defense is to keep it high - if they can. Comcast's best and cheapest offense is to get their own stock back up to pre-offer levels.

Look for Comcast to start seriously wooing DIS shareholders and the Board.

 

[YoHo]

Originally posted by disneyfan551
Sorry, but nothing about this is "a good show" to me. I'm really worried that we are going to lose the Disney magic...

There are plenty of here that think the magic has been gone for quite some time. That Comcast won't be any worse then private managment. Quite frankly, might as well enjoy the show.

 

[tfc3rid]

Jobs would be perfect. He's got what it takes to re-energize this company.

 

[KNWVIKING]

... but a of right now the is about 10 bil difference in market cap between Dis and Comcast. If Dis stock continues to rise on speculation, at what point is it feasible that Disney takeover Comcast ?

 

[raidermatt]

Disney's stock is only up in anticipation of a premium being paid by somebody. If they are no longer a target, the stock falls back.

 

[missydisney]

What are we as consumers to do? We followed Walt's Dream. Believed in the Magic. Eisner has taken that magic and turned it for his own use. How do we get back to Walt's Dream. Surely selling the company would not be the way. New Leadership is called for. Mergers are just another way of large Corporations taking over and losing sight of the original goals. I wish I was a stock holder. I think new leadership could, and should have the chance to save the dreams of so many. This is just my opinion. I love Disney World and have planned for 9 years to move there when my son finishes high school. I wanted to work there and be part of the magic. My oldest wanted to get into animation there. That dream is gone for him. We will still visit as long as we can. But can only pray that this will have a good outcome not be just a good show.

 

[crusader]

YoHo, my problem with Jobs is this:

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/78/jobs.html

There is a need to be fluid in a company. In Hollywood, production is assembly driven to sustain the industry. Every once in a while creativity becomes a substantial investment but it's volatile and audiences are fickle.

If you look at Pixar, they have the ability to afford the time and money necessary to perfect their work one project at a time, because they aren't burdened by the same financial demands other producers within the industry are - yet. And that's a major YET!!!

They're a 20 year old company with only 5 major releases to show for it. They exhaust their cash funding payroll. Their joint venture relieved them of a great deal of pressure but not anymore and now they have their hand out.

And don't discount Microsoft's beating Apple in the on-demand market. Why would you want Disney tied to a deal with a tech company who can't compete commercially in a worldwide user market? Do you really think Jobs will bow to Gates?

How do you prevent Disney from becoming the proverbial beta in a vhs market under this umbrella?

 

[KNWVIKING]

***"Disney's stock is only up in anticipation of a premium being paid by somebody. If they are no longer a target, the stock falls back."***

But what Comcast was offering was a share swap at 0.72 (or 0.78 ?) per share, meaning Disney shareholder would own 42% of the entire company. If Disney stock continues to climb, Comcast will have to increase that ratio considerably.

 

[warpdarkmatter]

i fear that comcast is trying to become a media giant.their focus will be on their cable networks owning more net works will help them monopolize the cable industry a big blow to direct tv and other dish networksthey will now own e! network,a&e,abc networks,espn,all the disney channels and more!!i feel this talk of them revitalizing the parks may just be a p.r. move to avoid a back lash from disney castmembers and the disney lovers plus the shareholders i fear they may start selling off the parks after the deal has been sealed

 

[Cricket2]

JC

 

[YoHo]

Assemply driven production sustains...barely.. media empires. The contention is that the model most companies are using with Hollywood is wrong.

Pixar and Lord of the Rings bare this out.

Originally posted by crusader
YoHo, my problem with Jobs is this:

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/78/jobs.html

There is a need to be fluid in a company. In Hollywood, production is assembly driven to sustain the industry. Every once in a while creativity becomes a substantial investment but it's volatile and audiences are fickle.

If you look at Pixar, they have the ability to afford the time and money necessary to perfect their work one project at a time, because they aren't burdened by the same financial demands other producers within the industry are - yet. And that's a major YET!!!

They're a 20 year old company with only 5 major releases to show for it. They exhaust their cash funding payroll. Their joint venture relieved them of a great deal of pressure but not anymore and now they have their hand out.

And don't discount Microsoft's beating Apple in the on-demand market. Why would you want Disney tied to a deal with a tech company who can't compete commercially in a worldwide user market? Do you really think Jobs will bow to Gates?

How do you prevent Disney from becoming the proverbial beta in a vhs market under this umbrella?