Close to DVC purchase - Need some advice

[TDS1]

Hi DVC experts - I think I am finally getting ready to purchase after months of research!
Here is where I am currently. I have decided I really want Boardwalk to be my home resort, despite the 2042 expiration date. For me, it's by far the best location. I have researched pricing, use year, etc. I found a contract that has my ideal use year, amount of points, and pricing per point, and have submitted an offer. Waiting to hear back - exciting!

Here is my question. My calculations are based on us making 2 trips per year, one around president's day and one around Christmas (not peak week but the week before or after). I understand that could change in the future, but will be that way for the next 8-10 years for sure. When I look at the point charts, I would stay in a studio for the President's day one trip and a 1 bedroom for the Christmas trip. I would have enough points to book 9 nights in a standard that way (4 nights standard studio around president's day, 5 nights 1 bedroom standard around Christmas), with some points left offer.

I have looked at the availability calendars for Boardwalk. I understand standards fill extremely quickly. If I book at exactly the 11 month mark (to the day), how likely would I be to get standards during this time? Or is 11 months to the day in a standard usually booked by people that have earlier check in dates. I wouldn't have quite enough points to cover my contract with Boardwalk/pool view for all 9 nights, but could if necessary for the President's day weekend.

So would the best approach be to try to have a reservation that covers a couple of extra nights before my ideal dates and then cancel those extra dates? Basically, what's the best strategy to get a standard room at a place like Boardwalk? And can you still book extra nights if you don't have the points for that use year to cover them (does Disney automatically assume you are borrowing from next use year)?

Sorry for the basic questions but appreciate the help! I feel it is somewhat unlikely that this contract will be accepted AND make it through ROFR, so this information is helpful as I continue to research! Was considering SSR as an alternative, but feels like it will be hard to ever get BWV during these dates.

 

[zavandor]

Yes, the standard view is a great deal, probably the best deal in the whole DVC system.
Yes, buying less points and book standard view makes a lot of sense.
It makes so much sense that a lot of people have done and will do it.
Will everyone be able to do it? Unfortunately no. There are very few rooms in that category and they are snatched very quickly. It's just a question of numbers, not everyone can get a standard view. So buying just enough points for a Standard view very year is very risky.
What you describe in your post is called "walking a reservation". And people might do it not just for a couple of nights, they might start days or even weeks in advance! Is it needed? Probably not. Will it be needed in the future? Who knows.
If I were you, I'd buy enough points to be able to book a garden view at least 50% of the time.

 

[disneynutz]

I would plan to stay in a preferred view and hope to get a standard. Any extra points, bank and add a night to your next reservation.

Bill

 

[_auroraborealis_]

That said, it is always easier to get a 1BR than a studio at any resort that has both. I think a 1BR without walking is far more likely than a studio without walking near Christmas.

 

[supersnoop]

I don't think you'll have any problem getting the standard room you want for those trips as long as you book at 11 months.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I wouldn't worry about getting the standard 1BR. And the standard studio in February will probably be ok too. However I don't recommend anyone every buy just enough to book the lowest point rooms unless they are willing to adjust vacations etc if they don't get them and have to book something that requires more points. It isn't booking more nights, but it's covering the possibility of not getting that standard.

If you didn't have banked or current points to cover a reservation then it's borrowing and that is a final transaction where the points stay in the UY that you borrow them into. Of course with a loaded resale contract though you might start out with extra points banked that could cover you for some time into the future if you need to book higher point cost rooms.

 

[gharter]

Getting the room you want in February, especially at 11 months should not be an issue.
We don't go around Christmas, but everyting I read says it is more challenging to get rooms. Reserving right at 11 months certainly increases your odds of getting the room you want.
I would purchase more points than you need for today. Most likely the points needed will only increase over the next few years. If you just purchase what you need today, you will either need to decrease your stay or borrow points.
Good luck with yor decision.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Most likely the points needed will only increase over the next few years.

However, points don't just increase arbitrarily. If there is an increase there has to be a corresponding decrease somewhere. It's good to have some leeway though - the time of year a person goes may change, sometimes they may want a larger villa but sometimes people also skip a trip. The fun of a points system and all the options you can play with.

 

[supersnoop]

Most likely the points needed will only increase over the next few years.

I don't think you understand how points work. The total number of points at a resort is locked in. One category can't increase without another decreasing.

 

[CarolMN]

However, points don't just increase arbitrarily. If there is an increase there has to be a corresponding decrease somewhere. It's good to have some leeway though - the time of year a person goes may change, sometimes they may want a larger villa but sometimes people also skip a trip. The fun of a points system and all the options you can play with.

I don't think you understand how points work. The total number of points at a resort is locked in. One category can't increase without another decreasing.

Perhaps gharter believes a reallocation is coming. Many believe that the points for December (one of the OP's preferred time to travel) will increase when/if that happens. (I hope not, but the odds don't favor my hopes).

 

[supersnoop]

Perhaps gharter believes a reallocation is coming. Many believe that the points for December (one of the OP's preferred time to travel) will increase when/if that happens. (I hope not, but the odds don't favor my hopes).

Except most theories say that a reallocation would lower one-bedroom rates and increase studio rates. Since the OP is planning more nights in a one bedrrom than the studio, a reallocation would cause the total necessary points to drop, not increase.

 

[CarolMN]

Except most theories say that a reallocation would lower one-bedroom rates and increase studio rates. Since the OP is planning more nights in a one bedrrom than the studio, a reallocation would cause the total necessary points to drop, not increase.

Maybe. I was thinking more of a seasonal reallocation that would take a good portion of December out of Adventure Season. It's all speculation at this point, of course.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Maybe. I was thinking more of a seasonal reallocation that would take a good portion of December out of Adventure Season. It's all speculation at this point, of course.

Agree. I think there is absolutely possibility that they address Fall Frenzy in some way.

 

[MrInfinity]

A seasonal reallocation is possible, but you have to consider why they did it the way it is now, in the first place.

Obviously they know that early December is a popular time. Certainly not appropriate to be in Adventure Season. And the 2nd half of Dec including the run-up to Christmas Eve as well as most of F&W is in Choice! Crazy. Meanwhile you've got much of Feb in Magic Season, the 2nd most expensive, for some of the deadest time. This isn't by accident, like someone actually thought Feb was more demanded than Oct-Dec, so I'm not sure the intent is to correct this. It's unconventional pricing, but by creating pockets of extremely high demand, you keep the value of buying direct, high.

For example. F&W. It falls entirely in Adventure and Choice season, and we all know this would book up if in Dream or Magic. But by doing it this way, they create an intentional imbalance in supply vs demand. If everything was more balanced... and things filled up evenly, then there would be less incentive to own at a more desirable home resort. It would effectively lower the value of BCV and BWV to shift to a better distribution. It would benefit SSR, but not really increase the retail value at SSR.

So I just wouldn't assume that because there is an imbalance, that Disney wants to fix this.

Let's say you swap Dec 1-14 with Feb 1-14. What impact would this have? Well, first off it would make more sense. Now, if you want to go on the cheap, you have to pick the rather unappealing month of Feb to do it. So cheap-stayers... would you suddenly stop going in Dec and start going in Feb? Some would shift, others would keep going in Dec. So now you've eased the difficulty of getting December trips. More people going at Dec w SSR points will be able to get Dec, because it now costs 20% more. The fact that it costs more to them doesn't matter because they're cheaper points. People who owned at BLT and used to get an advantage to book the awesome Dec stays, now, no longer have an "awesome" option. You can go cheap in Feb, or more expensive in Dec -- a mix of pros and cons. It's not the pro-pro of cheap Dec or the con-con of expensive Feb.

Since I think Disney wants to keep the retail price of BLT, Poly, VGF, VWL, BWV, BCV as high as possible, I don't think they're out to level the demand.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

A seasonal reallocation is possible, but you have to consider why they did it the way it is now, in the first place.

Obviously they know that early December is a popular time. Certainly not appropriate to be in Adventure Season. And the 2nd half of Dec including the run-up to Christmas Eve as well as most of F&W is in Choice! Crazy. Meanwhile you've got much of Feb in Magic Season, the 2nd most expensive, for some of the deadest time. This isn't by accident, like someone actually thought Feb was more demanded than Oct-Dec, so I'm not sure the intent is to correct this. It's unconventional pricing, but by creating pockets of extremely high demand, you keep the value of buying direct, high.

For example. F&W. It falls entirely in Adventure and Choice season, and we all know this would book up if in Dream or Magic. But by doing it this way, they create an intentional imbalance in supply vs demand. If everything was more balanced... and things filled up evenly, then there would be less incentive to own at a more desirable home resort. It would effectively lower the value of BCV and BWV to shift to a better distribution. It would benefit SSR, but not really increase the retail value at SSR.

So I just wouldn't assume that because there is an imbalance, that Disney wants to fix this.

......

Remember that DVC and those seasons started back in 1991. At that time the first couple of weeks of December were one of the slowest of the year and fall was not a big time. Food and Wine did not exist, nor Halloween or Christmas parties and so on and so on. Actually nothing was as big as it is now but the seasons did fit the crowds better although still not perfectly.

 

[TDS1]

Thank you everyone for the great advice!!! There always seem to be so many factors to consider with DVC.
I realize that this is cutting the point total very close with my example above, but I would still need a 25 point add on contract to get the AP discount, so that would help.
Also, it's simply a place to start (and what was available), so there is always the possibility of adding an additional contract at some point (would likely do BLT or SSR for a 2nd contract).
Also, if I had to get a Pool/Garden/BW view during Christmas , I could shorten the stay by a day on one end. So I am not locked into the idea 4 day standard studio at Presidents, 5 day standard 1 BR at Christmas. Was just trying to make sure I could try to predict how I might use the points.
I have really struggled with the decision over whether to get BW vs SSR or BLT. You would think that would be easy but it hasn't been!
With BW, I am paying a little over $2 per point per year vs SSR/BLT when you figure the shorter expiration and higher maintenance. I worry I won't "explore" the other DVC resorts because I will try to maximize my value by staying at BW. Perhaps that is shortsighted.
With SSR, I love that it's the lowest average cost per point, so would definitely explore other resorts (in fact that would be the primary goal). However, I worry though that the 7 month window will lead to frustration and it will be hard to get other options without split stays/wait lists/constantly checking.
Yes, I definitely have over researched this! Probably ultimately should have 2 contracts, but have to start with 1 first!

In any case - still waiting to hear back on the BWV offer. The broker hasn't been able to reach the seller yet.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You would likely be using the waitlist for both Christmas and Presidents Day, TBH, buying SSR but wanting to stay elsewhere.

If you want to stay at BWV, buy BWV.

 

[gharter]

Perhaps gharter believes a reallocation is coming. Many believe that the points for December (one of the OP's preferred time to travel) will increase when/if that happens. (I hope not, but the odds don't favor my hopes).

It only makes sense that at some point there will be a reallocation of points. Reading through the threads, each year DVC releases the point charts for the resorts. If they have no plans to ever change the points, why release a point chart for a specific year? If they will not change, you can release one point chart and be done.
I don't know that it will be a decrease for 1 bedroom and an increase for studios. I would expect to see higher points for the higher demand dates and lower points for lesser times.
Will it happen? Time will tell.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It only makes sense that at some point there will be a reallocation of points. Reading through the threads, each year DVC releases the point charts for the resorts. If they have no plans to ever change the points, why release a point chart for a specific year? If they will not change, you can release one point chart and be done.
I don't know that it will be a decrease for 1 bedroom and an increase for studios. I would expect to see higher points for the higher demand dates and lower points for lesser times.
Will it happen? Time will tell.

Due to holiday dates changing there are changes to the charts each year. Easter moves around by weeks and the day of the week that Christmas falls will affect when Premier season kicks in then.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Yep. Holi-dates are a major factor in seasons.