CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[RamblingMad]

Interesting article about the effort underway to develop an app as a digital vaccination certificate. Industries such as cruise line, sports arenas, etc. are stating they will require a vaccination certificate (aka Vaccination Passport). If this gets things opened up quicker so we can travel, I am all for it!

‘Vaccine passports’ are on the way, but developing them won’t be easy (msn.com)

Just inject me with a microchip like my dog. Then, they could just scan me like my dog and let me through to places. Much easier. And I don't have to worry about losing my proof of vaccination.

 

[dvcgirl67]

This has already happened. The current vaccines offer limited protection against the South African variant. We'll need a booster for it in the future.

I know that our current vaccines are less effective against the SA variant....that's different than total vaccine escape. Remember, in any given year, if we get anywhere close to 50% efficacy in that year's influenza vaccine it's considered a big success. Also, cases are way, way down in SA....and they have no vaccine rollout to speak of at all and they've lifted most of their restrictions.

I think that there's just a ton that scientists still do not understand about this virus. And I was and am a fan of simple mitigation techniques that could still be in place in many states without greatly affecting business. I'm in that 30% that I spoke of earlier....DH and I will get vaccinated and we'll see how it goes with respect to fully jumping back into the pool. We'll see our elderly parents indoors. That's most important. Travel is next important for us, and we're thinking and looking at options that make sense to us.

But our government is propping this whole deal up to the tune of what...6 Trillion and counting at this point. We can't keep doing this indefinitely.

 

[helloconnie]

So, if the rate of vaccinations continue (and people get their 2nd dose), 2/3 of the adult US population will be fully vaccinated by the end of the first week of May. And if it continues after that, approximately 80% will be fully vaccinated by Memorial Day. The two big IFs are: (1) If J&J can deliver and (2) If we can get the 35% that say they won't get vaccinated to change their minds. The other issue is demographics. The percentage of whites getting vaccinated is in the high 60s (66% one dose and 69% fully) while every other demographic is in the single digits.

If this rate continues, then things might really open up by Memorial Day.

Date	Fully Vaccinated	% of Pop	Addtl J&J**
By 4/16	145,224,727​	43.7%​
By 4/23	162,651,727​	49.0%​
By 4/30	180,078,727​	54.2%​
By 4/30*	195,132,427​	58.8%​
By 5/7	212,559,427​	64.0%​	214,559,427​	64.6%​
By 5/14	229,986,427​	69.3%​	233,986,427​	70.5%​
By 5/21	247,413,427​	74.5%​	253,413,427​	76.3%​
By 5/28	264,840,427​	79.8%​	272,840,427​	82.2%​
By 6/4	282,267,427​	85.0%​	292,267,427​	88.0%​
By 6/11	299,694,427​	90.3%​	311,694,427​	93.9%​
*Assumes J&J delivers remaining 15,053,700 doses due by 3/2021
**Assumes J&J delivers 2,000,000 doses a week after initial 20M

 

[godisney14]

So, if the rate of vaccinations continue (and people get their 2nd dose), 2/3 of the adult US population will be fully vaccinated by the end of the first week of May. And if it continues after that, approximately 80% will be fully vaccinated by Memorial Day. The two big IFs are: (1) If J&J can deliver and (2) If we can get the 35% that say they won't get vaccinated to change their minds. The other issue is demographics. The percentage of whites getting vaccinated is in the high 60s (66% one dose and 69% fully) while every other demographic is in the single digits.

If this rate continues, then things might really open up by Memorial Day.

Date	Fully Vaccinated	% of Pop	Addtl J&J**
By 4/16	145,224,727​	43.7%​
By 4/23	162,651,727​	49.0%​
By 4/30	180,078,727​	54.2%​
By 4/30*	195,132,427​	58.8%​
By 5/7	212,559,427​	64.0%​	214,559,427​	64.6%​
By 5/14	229,986,427​	69.3%​	233,986,427​	70.5%​
By 5/21	247,413,427​	74.5%​	253,413,427​	76.3%​
By 5/28	264,840,427​	79.8%​	272,840,427​	82.2%​
By 6/4	282,267,427​	85.0%​	292,267,427​	88.0%​
By 6/11	299,694,427​	90.3%​	311,694,427​	93.9%​
*Assumes J&J delivers remaining 15,053,700 doses due by 3/2021
**Assumes J&J delivers 2,000,000 doses a week after initial 20M

“The percentage of whites getting vaccinated is in the high 60’s.”

What does that mean?

 

[helloconnie]

“The percentage of whites getting vaccinated is in the high 60’s.”

What does that mean?

High 60 percentage points. Out of all the 51,593,564 million people fully vaccinated, 69% are white. Out of those with one dose, 66% are white. Compare that to the other fully vaccinated numbers of 7.5% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 7.3% Black and 1.6% American Indian. One dose percentages are similar.

Here is a link to the CDC Tracking with the demographic information:
CDC COVID Data Tracker

 

[lovethesun12]

High 60 percentage points. Out of all the 51,593,564 million people fully vaccinated, 69% are white. Out of those with one dose, 66% are white. Compare that to the other fully vaccinated numbers of 7.5% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 7.3% Black and 1.6% American Indian. One dose percentages are similar.

Here is a link to the CDC Tracking with the demographic information:
CDC COVID Data Tracker

Could be an issue with accessibility?

 

[TLSnell1981]

Could be an issue with accessibility?

It could be. I think it may be more likely some populations do not trust the vaccine.

 

[Colleen27]

It could be. I think it may be more likely some populations do not trust the vaccine.

I think it is some of both. Polling about vaccine acceptance would suggest accessibility plays the bigger role, since the gap in doses administered exceeds the gap in willingness by a pretty large margin. But that isn't surprising for a number of reasons. Life expectancy is closely linked to socioeconomic status and there's a significant racial wealth gap in our country, so rolling out by age was bound to skew white. The current method of scheduling in most places isn't very worker-friendly, so groups that are overrepresented in the job categories that have the least ability to take time off for a relatively last-minute appointment are likely to hold out for an appointment at one of the handful of partners where you can choose your time (CVS, Kroger) or simply wait until the vaccine is easier to find rather than registering for the larger, take-it-or-leave-it vaccination "mega sites". And of course, the more one has on their plate, the less likely they are to devote the time and energy to appointment-stalking that is required to get a slot right now, so that is also likely to cause some to sit back and wait until it is more like getting a flu shot than like getting concert tickets for the latest pop superstar.

 

[godisney14]

High 60 percentage points. Out of all the 51,593,564 million people fully vaccinated, 69% are white. Out of those with one dose, 66% are white. Compare that to the other fully vaccinated numbers of 7.5% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 7.3% Black and 1.6% American Indian. One dose percentages are similar.

Here is a link to the CDC Tracking with the demographic information:
CDC COVID Data Tracker

60% of the American population identify themselves as non-Hispanic White. So....

It could be. I think it may be more likely some populations do not trust the vaccine.

There definitely is a difference in willingness by race, but the data being reported by helloconnie is the wrong dataset to use to try making an inference regarding how one race is willing relative to another.

Here’s a more focused data on willingness by race (survey by Pew):


Link to survey results showing willingness by other factors.

And, a link to what percentage of each race in each state has gotten a vaccine.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

Reconcile the data in those two links, and you can then make some inference of vaccine inequity.

 

[Jonfw2]

Hey everyone. Back from Disney World. Great trip, but the Covid protocols are indeed a bit frustrating. I will say I felt infinitely better being vaccinated than if I had not been.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Hey everyone. Back from Disney World. Great trip, but the Covid protocols are indeed a bit frustrating. I will say I felt infinitely better being vaccinated than if I had not been.

Welcome back. Glad you had a great trip. I've been listening to a oouple of Disney podcasts (to live vicariously through others), and they have been reporting that crowds are increasing and that the parks feel busy again. They say some of that is because the "people eater" attractions like Indiana Jones, Lion King...etc, aren't operating, but also that parks are reaching capacity on some days. And over the holiday break that some passes to even enter the parks are all gone.

I re-joined these forums in early 2020 because I was looking past the South Africa trip that we didn't take....to possibly fall of 2021 for a WDW trip. We haven't been in a long time and thought it would be fun. Now, even though we'll be vaxxed, I won't return until Disney is back to normal with longer hours, fast passes....etc.

 

[Jonfw2]

Welcome back. Glad you had a great trip. I've been listening to a oouple of Disney podcasts (to live vicariously through others), and they have been reporting that crowds are increasing and that the parks feel busy again. They say some of that is because the "people eater" attractions like Indiana Jones, Lion King...etc, aren't operating, but also that parks are reaching capacity on some days. And over the holiday break that some passes to even enter the parks are all gone.

I re-joined these forums in early 2020 because I was looking past the South Africa trip that we didn't take....to possibly fall of 2021 for a WDW trip. We haven't been in a long time and thought it would be fun. Now, even though we'll be vaxxed, I won't return until Disney is back to normal with longer hours, fast passes....etc.

I would concur. Wait until it looks more like pre-Covid times, til shows are back, etc.

 

[charmed59]

In any case the article did discuss rural aspects which got most of the priority in the beginning now slowing down in interest level but it also discussed how people can naturally convert to wanting a vaccine as they see more people get it. At least for my state they are really hoping opening up for doctor's offices will encourage more to get it. My mom was telling me the other day she's seen a few of her friends and acquaintances say they want to wait to get it at their doctor's office and they don't want to go to some big event to get it done.

There was a spike in our county of seniors getting the vaccine when their doctor’s were able to give it out and contacted all their patients to offer that. I think peer pressure might have also contributed, as indoor neighborhood gatherings were happening again but only those fully vaccinated were invited.

One lady I play tennis with was adamant she would not be vaccinated. When I mentioned the younger ones in my neighborhood were being left out of the mahjong games due to not being fully vaccinated she was incensed. “How could they do that!” We pointed out no one has to invite anyone they do not want to their home. She realized her choice may mean she will be left out of social situations.

 

[anniemae]

Hey everyone. Back from Disney World. Great trip, but the Covid protocols are indeed a bit frustrating. I will say I felt infinitely better being vaccinated than if I had not been.

How dare you leave us while cases are increasing. You have lots of posts to catch up on. Then come back and say something reassuring. Please. LOL !!!!!

 

[Jonfw2]

How dare you leave us while cases are increasing. You have lots of posts to catch up on. Then come back and say something reassuring. Please. LOL !!!!!

Scott Gottleib was just on CNBC. He believes that we're two weeks away from the level of vaccination plus warmer weather superseding any threat from variants. He also thinks they will remain regionalized.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Hey everyone. Back from Disney World. Great trip, but the Covid protocols are indeed a bit frustrating. I will say I felt infinitely better being vaccinated than if I had not been.

hope you had fun

 

[Colleen27]

Another data point on vaccine equality by race. The Detroit Lions stadium is now a vaccination site capable of handling about 6000 patients a day. So far, the people vaccinated there have been 72% white/14% black, in the heart of a city that is basically the inverse of that (78% black/14% white). Whether that is because of vaccine hesitancy among Black residents or because they are using take-it-or-leave-it scheduling and an online registration system is anyone's guess, but clearly just putting the sites in minority communities isn't enough to ensure equitable vaccination rates.

 

[Jonfw2]

Another data point on vaccine equality by race. The Detroit Lions stadium is now a vaccination site capable of handling about 6000 patients a day. So far, the people vaccinated there have been 72% white/14% black, in the heart of a city that is basically the inverse of that (78% black/14% white). Whether that is because of vaccine hesitancy among Black residents or because they are using take-it-or-leave-it scheduling and an online registration system is anyone's guess, but clearly just putting the sites in minority communities isn't enough to ensure equitable vaccination rates.

i have to suspect it's hesitancy. I'm hoping to see more and more media campaigns about vaccine safety and importance and I'm hopeful that leaders in minority communities like President and Michelle Obama, Dwayne Johnson, etc will participate in them.

 

[huskies90]

I would concur. Wait until it looks more like pre-Covid times, til shows are back, etc.

I would agree. Disney is a shell of what it was right now. It is still Disney so you can definitely have a great time but if you only go once in awhile, I would wait - especially since everything is still full price.

We have DVC and AP's and have been twice - Food and Wine in the Fall and Festival of Arts in February. The EPCOT festivals actually have not been too far from normal. We are planning to head down next week for another short trip for Flower and Garden. I had my first shot (Pfizer) last week and we are hoping to get the first shot for my wife before we leave on Sunday. CT is now opening up everyone on 4/1. It is gonna be tough to get her an appointment with the whole state open.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Another data point on vaccine equality by race. The Detroit Lions stadium is now a vaccination site capable of handling about 6000 patients a day. So far, the people vaccinated there have been 72% white/14% black, in the heart of a city that is basically the inverse of that (78% black/14% white). Whether that is because of vaccine hesitancy among Black residents or because they are using take-it-or-leave-it scheduling and an online registration system is anyone's guess, but clearly just putting the sites in minority communities isn't enough to ensure equitable vaccination rates.

The state next to me is now partnering up with transit options to provide predominately free options or to a lesser extent reduced fare because: "In Missouri, we recognize there is a significant amount of older adults, people with disabilities and low-income individuals who are at higher risk of contracting the virus and don’t have cars, don’t drive, don’t live near public transit and live in rural areas far from vaccination sites." Much of our area at least in KC is not really public transit outside of buses which are not an encompassing public transit to traverse the metro (I don't count the street car as that is just for a portion of Downtown) though STL has more options. The article I was reading within the last few days said that was also a main contributor for the minority community of the state next to me that transportation options were a roadblock.

I don't know the stats for when Arrowhead was used as a mass vaccination site for J&J but I bet you transportation was an issue there in addition to the fact that it was only used for those who were residents of Jackson County (which does have a high minority makeup in terms of percentages) or ones signed up through the state's vaccine locator. It was a good usage of J&J IMO but not in terms of targeting the minority community.