CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[LuvOrlando]

For people who wonder if the economy will come back when this ends, the day I found out I was getting vaxxed, I booked a ten day vacation.

I bet there would be more confidence if data was more revealing about the sorts of jobs that were lost & suspect many jobs lost are more tertiary and dependant on disposable income. This is no less tragic for those who have lost jobs, but it would point to the idea that these lost jobs will be quickly recovered once the vaccines take root, people begin to feel safe and we all start spending again into a new roaring 20's. Those who have steady jobs will start the ball rolling as people venture out slowly, locally at first and then spread out.

Well, I think that travel will certainly get a big bounce from the vaccines. Overall though, I believe consumer spending was down a bit for the year in the U.S.....albeit rebounding in a big way in Q3. I think what we're going to see if money moving from one bucket to another within that consumer spending umbrella. So...like you, we'll definitely spend more on services once we're vaccinated, but less on consumer goods as we did throughout the pandemic.

I own a decent sized pet care business in my area (pet-sitting and dog walking), and so I can definitely tell you that people in my area, for the most part....are not taking vacations. This past week is always the busiest of the year for me with respect to vacation travelers....this year.....not so much. And because I service so many homes with NYC commuters....I can tell you they're not doing that either in large numbers. So I have hard data on that kind of thing in my area anyway.

Where are they spending? They're spending on "stuff" for their homes. People are doing big home upgrades, both inside and out. And just buying lots and lots of stuff. We did the same here, with lots of spending on our back yard, front porch, etc. We didn't spend nearly as much as we would have on vacations, but we spent much more than we normally would have on our home in a regular year.

So I feel like money, for those who have not suffered big job losses/financial difficulties, will move from one bucket....to another. But...being on the service side of this economy, I for one am happy to hear that you're planning on a 10 day vacation....as are the people who work for me. I've only been able to bring back two of my six people, and just part-time.

This is why I feel the doom and gloom for 2021 is nonsense, once the vaccine is in place we will be the roaring 20'S.

Service spending is good because it's immediate and greases the wheels in someone's immediate community and then those people continue to move it within the local area, since we don't manufacture here buying stuff doesn't help a local community.

I expect contractors will be up for both remodels, (2 neighbors just redid bathrooms) and new home construction (I can see 3 complexes going up near me now, two are 55 + and one is a huge collection of colonials, not to mention the new builds within existing newer communities) and these are just the places I see as I go on my weekend drives. There are also no more homes for sale in my neighborhood and when they hit the ground in the area they are gobbled up, this is great because the tax authorities won't suffer the downturn, new owners mean no lost revenues since taxes are often paid within the sale (certainly liens must be settled) & buying a home usually means at least enough liquidity to make it through the year. Suspect the new buyers will be bringing in contractors, decorators, painters and such as soon as it's a bit safer to have workers in the house, landscapers will see a buzz in April. Also great because those who lost jobs will be able to sell their homes before they get underwater and then ride out the hiccup until the services sector completely recovers, best guess is around July because these are quick hires, cash in cash out to employee type businesses. I'm seeing lots of people picking up small jobs through Nextdoor, stuff a real contractor would never agree to do because they are high touch but low money. Seeing businesses pop up to clean out homes and reorganize, others running errands sort of like couriers because they can adapt their prices in a text. The blue collar work is what makes the world go round. As long as the payments come through to float people from now until the vaccines are mainstream there will likely be an incredibly robust recovery, I see no reason for doom and gloom for the future we just need to let the dust settle.

The vaccines will change everything.

 

[skeeter31]

Been reading this morning about another new strain, the South African strain, that’s more infectious and has a different protein setup and is showing to be resistant to antibodies. Hopefully that one stays under control and doesn’t become widespread. Otherwise vaccine could be useless until its retooled.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/south-african-coronavirus-variant-more-of-a-problem-than-uk-one.html

 

[dvcgirl67]

Been reading this morning about another new strain, the South African strain, that’s more infectious and has a different protein setup and is showing to be resistant to antibodies. Hopefully that one stays under control and doesn’t become widespread. Otherwise vaccine could be useless until its retooled.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/south-african-coronavirus-variant-more-of-a-problem-than-uk-one.html

I just saw a thread about this on Twitter. Feels like we’re being set up for the sequel.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Been reading this morning about another new strain, the South African strain, that’s more infectious and has a different protein setup and is showing to be resistant to antibodies. Hopefully that one stays under control and doesn’t become widespread. Otherwise vaccine could be useless until its retooled.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/south-african-coronavirus-variant-more-of-a-problem-than-uk-one.html

This is from last week.
Seems enough is not known, also seems would should avoid toying with herd immunity because it can end up leading to the mutations in people who can't quite eradicate the infection, so avoiding transmission should be the primary objective.

We should calmly wait for the CDC et.al to give us the rundown before relying on possibly flawed info from other places that maybe enjoy seeing us flustered

https://virological.org/t/prelimina...defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563
and
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-mutation-no-reason-to-panic-virologist/a-56008220
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...earch/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...ant-of-coronavirus-and-what-we-need-to-find-o
Might matter, might not but really waiting on info from CDC and such is the best way to go, doubtful we'll be blindsided a second time. Too many eyes on it this time around, thank goodness.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Been reading this morning about another new strain, the South African strain, that’s more infectious and has a different protein setup and is showing to be resistant to antibodies. Hopefully that one stays under control and doesn’t become widespread. Otherwise vaccine could be useless until its retooled.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/south-african-coronavirus-variant-more-of-a-problem-than-uk-one.html

Yeah on a different thread here it was being discussed just before Christmas. Flights from south africa were being halted at least between that area and the UK due to this strain.

 

[Colleen27]

I bet there would be more confidence if data was more revealing about the sorts of jobs that were lost & suspect many jobs lost are more tertiary and dependant on disposable income. This is no less tragic for those who have lost jobs, but it would point to the idea that these lost jobs will be quickly recovered once the vaccines take root, people begin to feel safe and we all start spending again into a new roaring 20's. Those who have steady jobs will start the ball rolling as people venture out slowly, locally at first and then spread out.


This is why I feel the doom and gloom for 2021 is nonsense, once the vaccine is in place we will be the roaring 20'S.

I think your comparison is unintentionally apt. We remember the Gatsby image of the Roaring 20s, but there is a dark side to that period - it was a time of vast income inequality, widespread poverty, and a working class putting in long hours at low wages just to hang on to a subsistence-level existence that could be shattered by any illness, injury or setback. And it does appear that we're headed back in that direction... which should be a cause for concern, not a mitigation of it.

 

[mom2rtk]

Did you read about that facility in TN where the health officials gave the vaccine to their friends and family members after turning away those who were of age to qualify under TN's plan all the while telling those people they turned away they didn't have enough vaccine left?

Yeah...

That's awful. I hadn't heard that one. I wish there was some way to let those decision makers how many die who should have been vaccinated.

 

[Mango7100]

Did you read about that facility in TN where the health officials gave the vaccine to their friends and family members after turning away those who were of age to qualify under TN's plan all the while telling those people they turned away they didn't have enough vaccine left?

Yeah...

Yea, that’s my state...par for the course, our vaccine distribution has been less than stellar. And it wasn’t just a few doses that were left and they needed to use them or lose them due to miscalculation. It was a lot. news interviewed one van that had 7 people in it who all got vaccinated because they “ had connections”. The people who called their relatives for doses should all be fired

 

[LuvOrlando]

I think your comparison is unintentionally apt. We remember the Gatsby image of the Roaring 20s, but there is a dark side to that period - it was a time of vast income inequality, widespread poverty, and a working class putting in long hours at low wages just to hang on to a subsistence-level existence that could be shattered by any illness, injury or setback. And it does appear that we're headed back in that direction... which should be a cause for concern, not a mitigation of it.

I suspect it's fairly accessible to read that my intent is about the desire for fun not the rest of it, and anyway there are stopgaps now in place to prevent the full scope of the 20's, such as the SEC, FDIC, minimum wage, child labor laws, mandatory education, social services and such, which were not around back then... it's all in the history books if you search by year.

 

[Colleen27]

I suspect it's fairly accessible to read that my intent is about the desire for fun not the rest of it, and anyway there are stopgaps now in place to prevent the full scope of the 20's, such as the SEC, FDIC, minimum wage, child labor laws, mandatory education, social services and such, which were not around back then... it's all in the history books if you search by year.

And yet... wealth and income inequality were already back to 1920s levels before the pandemic and most economists now are talking about a "K-shaped" recovery that leaves many behind entirely as those who were already thriving continue to prosper. The protections for the most vulnerable among us are so weakened now that they don't provide a meaningful backstop against poverty, homelessness and hunger for millions.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yea, that’s my state...par for the course, our vaccine distribution has been less than stellar. And it wasn’t just a few doses that were left and they needed to use them or lose them due to miscalculation. It was a lot. news interviewed one van that had 7 people in it who all got vaccinated because they “ had connections”. The people who called their relatives for doses should all be fired

I didn't realize it was so many. I agree on losing their job, wonder if technically anything criminal happened or not but I wish there was if it isn't.

I wonder how many people who kept talking about how others were selfish like for example going inside a story (heaven's to betsy how dare you) during this pandemic realized that the selfishness they thought was occurring pales to what is going on now. Perhaps that puts all of that into perspective.

 

[Wakey]

Yeah on a different thread here it was being discussed just before Christmas. Flights from south africa were being halted at least between that area and the UK due to this strain.

The ’UK’ strain and ‘South African’ strain are two different strains (variants really, not strains). The UK one will not evade vaccines, the SA one may evade partially. This is the thing worrying me the most at the moment.
The real question is how many of these similar varients there are out there. The UK is the world leader in sequencing and SA is also one of the leaders, and thus it is no surprise these have been ‘discovered’ first in these countries. It’s been speculated the UK variant actually came from elsewhere, perhaps even the US and these variants or others could be rife already all over the world, just not detected yet. The US is quite poor on genetic sequencing it is going to have to get better.
The UK variant was first discovered in Kent- I personally guess this is no coincidence- it’s where much of the people and traffic come in from the continent on the Channel Tunnel. Both variants are likely spreading in the US as of now,
As Sir John Bell says (an expert really worth listening to and one of the people at Oxford) we are now in a game of cat and mouse with a constantly evolving virus. Our experts in this area also held an online meeting 2 weeks ago and they know from analysis the virus has ‘vaccine evading’ possibility to evolve. The whole meeting and presentations are on YouTube, but it’s heavy going.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The ’UK’ strain and ‘South African’ strain are two different strains (variants really, not strains). The UK one will not evade vaccines, the SA one may evade partially. This is the thing worrying me the most at the moment.
The real question is how many of these similar varients there are out there. The UK is the world leader in sequencing and SA is also one of the leaders, and thus it is no surprise these have been ‘discovered’ first in these countries. It’s been speculated the UK variant actually came from elsewhere, perhaps even the US and these variants or others could be rife already all over the world, just not detected yet. The US is quite poor on genetic sequencing it is going to have to get better.
The UK variant was first discovered in Kent- I personally guess this is no coincidence- it’s where much of the people and traffic come in from the continent on the Channel Tunnel. Both variants are likely spreading in the US as of now,
As Sir John Bell says (an expert really worth listening to and one of the people at Oxford) we are now in a game of cat and mouse with a constantly evolving virus. Our experts in this area also held an online meeting 2 weeks ago and they know from analysis the virus has ‘vaccine evading’ possibility to evolve.

Apologies but I'm not sure what you're discussing. I'm aware of what you are talking about and was only discussing the south africa strain (or variant if that is what you would prefer it to be referred to as by definition differences) as it pertained to the poster I quoted. On the COVID and the Rest of Us thread posters were already discussing the south africa strain (variant) prior to Christmas and the early attempt at mitigation from at least there to the UK by means of stopping flights. Maybe you thought I was confusing the two but that's not what I was saying.

The so-called south africa one yes that might present some issues, I'm concerned about that as well.

Either way I would agree that more are out there they we will likely ever know. Like I mentioned a few pages back, unbeknownst to me they had identified ones in my state named for Wisconsin and Utah.

 

[LuvOrlando]

And yet... wealth and income inequality were already back to 1920s levels before the pandemic and most economists now are talking about a "K-shaped" recovery that leaves many behind entirely as those who were already thriving continue to prosper. The protections for the most vulnerable among us are so weakened now that they don't provide a meaningful backstop against poverty, homelessness and hunger for millions.

OK, so I'm not sure how you got from roaring 20's free spirited mentality, which BTW was triggered by the success of Woman's Suffrage Movement and pushback against Victorian Era repression, to - well I'm not really sure what you are trying to say that I'm trying to say but it sounds bad. At any rate, the 20's were great because they were a celebration of the fact that women can do stuff like vote.

There is no time capsule that exists where there aren't negatives, that doesn't mean every mention of history has the intent to glorify every aspect of the past. I like books myself, and history can teach us what not to do, which is important.

Not really sure where you are aiming to bring me but I'd like to get off your train now.

 

[Farro]

I just can't with new strains, new problems, new anything anymore.

I'm trying so hard to fight my "covid fatigue" but even I find myself getting so sick of everything that eventually I'm afraid I'm going to just stop caring.

It's been almost a year and I'm slowly becoming numb to the media reporting/social media discussion of every possible worst-case scenario.

Obviously I'm not going to stop following the guidelines, but I can see where eventually people are just going to say forget it, we're all screwed anyways.

Just venting, ignore me.

 

[anniemae]

I just can't with new strains, new problems, new anything anymore.

I'm trying so hard to fight my "covid fatigue" but even I find myself getting so sick of everything that eventually I'm afraid I'm going to just stop caring.

It's been almost a year and I'm slowly becoming numb to the media reporting/social media discussion of every possible worst-case scenario.

Obviously I'm not going to stop following the guidelines, but I can see where eventually people are just going to say forget it, we're all screwed anyways.

Just venting.

I hear ya. It's like we are so tired of bad/dire news of the past year. Death. destruction of business etc. Then we get the vaccine news and it was like a new lease on life, hope on the horizon, allowing ourselves to dream, normalcy........Then. that hope is ripped out from under us. Oh wait, you were happy ?? You were hopeful???? You had dreams of going on vacation and hugging relatives???? Not so fast!!! UGH.

 

[Jonfw2]

I'd just caution everyone to not get ahead of ourselves with new strains. Viruses mutate. It's what they do. That's not new knowledge. Day by day, more people will get vaccinated and it will likely provide strong protection against even newly developed strains.

Not guarantees, but that's what the science says. I'll just try to keep focusing on that for now.

 

[LuvOrlando]

I just can't with new strains, new problems, new anything anymore.

I'm trying so hard to fight my "covid fatigue" but even I find myself getting so sick of everything that eventually I'm afraid I'm going to just stop caring.

It's been almost a year and I'm slowly becoming numb to the media reporting/social media discussion of every possible worst-case scenario.

Obviously I'm not going to stop following the guidelines, but I can see where eventually people are just going to say forget it, we're all screwed anyways.

Just venting, ignore me.

But we are not in more trouble, I know the info is dense and it's stressful but really we are in a very good place. The variants, in all likelihood, mean nothing of any significance and the news trumpting of the variations is just a means to get people worked up, drive up click count and sell advertising. So far nothing I read means everyday cautious people need to change anything else, people who are careless, however, might want to rethink things

 

[mom2rtk]

I just can't with new strains, new problems, new anything anymore.

I'm trying so hard to fight my "covid fatigue" but even I find myself getting so sick of everything that eventually I'm afraid I'm going to just stop caring.

It's been almost a year and I'm slowly becoming numb to the media reporting/social media discussion of every possible worst-case scenario.

Obviously I'm not going to stop following the guidelines, but I can see where eventually people are just going to say forget it, we're all screwed anyways.

Just venting, ignore me.

Same. Fingers in ears. La la la la la.

Following safety rules. But then la la la la la.

 

[RamblingMad]

I just can't with new strains, new problems, new anything anymore.

I'm trying so hard to fight my "covid fatigue" but even I find myself getting so sick of everything that eventually I'm afraid I'm going to just stop caring.

It's been almost a year and I'm slowly becoming numb to the media reporting/social media discussion of every possible worst-case scenario.

Obviously I'm not going to stop following the guidelines, but I can see where eventually people are just going to say forget it, we're all screwed anyways.

Just venting, ignore me.

Write off the first half of 2021 for sure. We should be in a better spot for the last half of 2021. Boris Johnson is going to address lock downs in the UK tonight.