CDC Level 4

DCLDVC1

DIS Veteran
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
Last edited:

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  • BartmanLA

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 26, 2013
    It's pretty obvious that they won't be able to contain outbreaks on closed environments like cruise ships or any vessel for that matter. Rushing to get back to cruise is just bringing with it a myriad of issues, including potentially quarantining entire ships of passengers if anyone on board tests positive or even worse tragically gets sick, along with the risk of contact infections from people in ports both on and off the ships, excursions that bring with them added exposure risks. I think delaying and banking on a rapid deployment of the vaccine globally would reflect more how the cruise lines can position themselves to be ready to restart as soon as there is enough saturation to make it safe for all guests, crews and shore personnel. Honestly in my opinion there's no real reason to rush out and try itineraries that are such high risk right now when, with some patience we can go cruising again safely.
     

    spiders

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Oct 19, 2019
    I wonder if you will need proof of vaccination AND a negative test initially, that sounds redundant but it may be the only thing that will be foolproof.
    I definitely think a negative test will be required as well even though I don’t really think it proves anything. But it’s a feel good/sounds good policy and I have no doubt you’ll need at least one, if not two tests.
     

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  • Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    A bit misleading. They are recalibrating ratings to insert more levels. Cruise ships were at the highest level, and they still are.

    Mexico is also at Level 4 - but that isn't stopping people from heading over to Cancun and Riviera Maya right now.

    It's important to recognize that cruising from the US ports isn't starting for another 3 or 4 months anyways regardless of the CDC ratings. The 200,000 daily cases in the country today are all cases on land.
     
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    o&smom

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 23, 2011
    PCR tests can be problematic for people who already had the virus. According to Dr. Jennifer Ashton on GMA, PCR tests can pick up “remnants” of virus, even if you had it months earlier, and are no longer positive. Do not know how this will work for our family since we got Covid on our last Disney Cruise.
     

    Snowwhyt

    I've felt the Magic each time I visit!
    Joined
    Nov 2, 2008
    Wow. I think that is why Royal Caribbean has canceled all their cruises of longer than 7 days until November 2021
    Wait I have two Royal Caribbean cruises and two Disney cruises. I guess my Disney cruises in January got canceled today. But when did the 7 day RC cruises get canceled? I need to look for a letter? Email?
     

    tvguy

    Question anything the facts don't support.
    Joined
    Dec 15, 2003
    Over 7 days in length are what was canceled until November 2021. I don't know how far in advance the 7 days and shorter cruises are canceled.
    Realistically any cruises from U.S. ports on any cruise line before about January 24 2021 HAVE to be canceled because no line I am aware of has filed for test cruises, and the CDC requires 60 days notice. Then they would need to evaluate how the cruise went, make any necessary changes, and test again. Not sure if that would take days or weeks or months and then they would need to get passengers in place. I think like a lot of other industries like mine, the reality is they won't even talk about returning to normal until the beginning of April........although some other industries like my son's have pushed back the earliest restart date to July 1. 2021
     
  • TiggerBouncy

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 4, 2013
    Technically, it's better for the industry than it was a month ago. They have gone from an outright ban to opening it up with a threat level and letting the carrier and the individual decide if the risk is worth it to them.

    That's a HUGE change and step toward getting the industry running again. I could care less if the system has 3 tiers, 4 tiers or 84.6 tiers. And rate it at the highest if you want. It's still not an outright ban.

    Personally, I won't be going quite yet. I would prefer a vaccine or to see some cruises come back without traces of covid. That's MY choice. But it IS a choice.
     

    sethschroeder

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2013
    I think proof of vaccination is going to be a requirement and I personally love the idea.
    Except even now vaccinations are 90-95% effective?

    I have tested positive and was happy to recover with what seems to be no long term impact. I will be skipping destinations that would require a fairly rushed vaccine, with what sounds like nasty side effects, and with no long term studies. Not saying I would never get a vaccine for COVID just not anytime soon. (Yes my kids have every suggested vaccine so not like I avoid vaccines)

    I just can't see Disney forcing vaccines when in reality you could still be contagious. 90-95% means on a ship of 3000 you have 150-300 people that could be sick passing it around. They also don't know if the vaccine will stop you from ever being contagious as well.

    Negative test prior to arrival and then another negative test at port is likely the strictest I would see a cruise line going possibly with testing daily while on ship. We will see though.
     

    spiders

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Oct 19, 2019
    Except even now vaccinations are 90-95% effective?

    I have tested positive and was happy to recover with what seems to be no long term impact. I will be skipping destinations that would require a fairly rushed vaccine, with what sounds like nasty side effects, and with no long term studies. Not saying I would never get a vaccine for COVID just not anytime soon. (Yes my kids have every suggested vaccine so not like I avoid vaccines)

    I just can't see Disney forcing vaccines when in reality you could still be contagious. 90-95% means on a ship of 3000 you have 150-300 people that could be sick passing it around. They also don't know if the vaccine will stop you from ever being contagious as well.

    Negative test prior to arrival and then another negative test at port is likely the strictest I would see a cruise line going possibly with testing daily while on ship. We will see though.
    I don’t really think a negative tests means anything but will be required - and as you said - I would imagine two tests. But that doesn’t mean you don’t have it and can provide a false sense of security such as what happened with that little yacht.

    But I do think all cruise lines are going to require it. I think travel is going to be severely restricted for those who won’t get it (and I don’t mean just restricted from cruising).
     
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    sethschroeder

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2013
    I travel is going to be severely restricted for those who won’t get it (and I don’t mean just restricted from cruising).
    Did you mean international travel? In the US its going to be extremely rare I think to force a vaccine for domestic travel of any sort. I doubt the Caribbean forces a vaccine either for US based cruises.
     

    spiders

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Oct 19, 2019
    Did you mean international travel? In the US its going to be extremely rare I think to force a vaccine for domestic travel of any sort. I doubt the Caribbean forces a vaccine either for US based cruises.
    I obviously don’t have a crystal ball but I think cruises will require it and I think some employers are going to require it as well. I expect mine will.
     

    TiggerBouncy

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 4, 2013
    Except even now vaccinations are 90-95% effective?

    I have tested positive and was happy to recover with what seems to be no long term impact. I will be skipping destinations that would require a fairly rushed vaccine, with what sounds like nasty side effects, and with no long term studies. Not saying I would never get a vaccine for COVID just not anytime soon. (Yes my kids have every suggested vaccine so not like I avoid vaccines)

    I just can't see Disney forcing vaccines when in reality you could still be contagious. 90-95% means on a ship of 3000 you have 150-300 people that could be sick passing it around. They also don't know if the vaccine will stop you from ever being contagious as well.

    Negative test prior to arrival and then another negative test at port is likely the strictest I would see a cruise line going possibly with testing daily while on ship. We will see though.
    The math is actually more complex that that. You do not need to have a vaccine that is 100% effective to achieve herd immunity. Depending on the virus and the R0, it's usually around 70% (and may be higher or lower depending on various factors).

    Remember all the things that enter in. Just because the vaccine is 90% effective, you would still have to have come in close contact with someone else who tested positive. That means you are now at 10% of 10%. plus, you had to come into contact with them for a prolonged time while they were contagious. To be contagious, they would have had to come into prolonged contact with someone else. Then you need to have the same prolonged contact with only someone else who was still vulnerable (meaning they have to be in that 10% as well) while you are still contagious.

    When you add in all those scenario's, it MAY be possible that you could end up contagious with COVID and pass it on, but even then you would likely only pass it on to one or two other people on the ship if all the factors lined up just so.

    That's a far cry from an outbreak. And overtime, that factor gets smaller and smaller as the number of people who are contagious that you might run into gets less and less.
     

    sethschroeder

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2013
    The math is actually more complex that that. You do not need to have a vaccine that is 100% effective to achieve herd immunity. Depending on the virus and the R0, it's usually around 70% (and may be higher or lower depending on various factors).

    Remember all the things that enter in. Just because the vaccine is 90% effective, you would still have to have come in close contact with someone else who tested positive. That means you are now at 10% of 10%. plus, you had to come into contact with them for a prolonged time while they were contagious. To be contagious, they would have had to come into prolonged contact with someone else. Then you need to have the same prolonged contact with only someone else who was still vulnerable (meaning they have to be in that 10% as well) while you are still contagious.

    When you add in all those scenario's, it MAY be possible that you could end up contagious with COVID and pass it on, but even then you would likely only pass it on to one or two other people on the ship if all the factors lined up just so.

    That's a far cry from an outbreak. And overtime, that factor gets smaller and smaller as the number of people who are contagious that you might run into gets less and less.
    Correct but testing multiple times before and during a cruise along with possibly historical positive test seems like in the confines of a DCL cruise would be fairly good.

    We are talking about a specific requirement to get on a DCL cruise not a larger country/global situation with COVID19.
     

    sethschroeder

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2013
    Quantas Airlines
    I couldn't find direct numbers but much of their air traffic that I see in 2021 in the US is operated by American Airlines actually checking their website.

    I never said other countries and international travel wouldn't require vaccines I think it will. I am talking specifically about the US and US companies and how it would apply to DCL out of US ports.
     
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