CDC Director: Impending Doom

[Nabas]

I explained this on a thread a few months past. Statistically speaking the chances that someone will catch Covid and have a bad outcome are very small. The chances that someone will either not catch it, or catch it and it won’t be a big deal for them, are much much much higher. Therefor I’m not “fortunate” to be ok, I would just be extremely unlucky if I wasn’t. No one goes around after a storm saying how lucky they were that they didn’t get struck by lightening. The chances of being struck are very low, therefor you would be incredibly unlucky if you were struck.

"Small" is a relative term.

Statistically speaking, you are about 12,000 times more likely to die from COVID than lightning.

Statistically speaking, COVID is about 20 times more deadly than the flu.

Statistically speaking, you are 15 times more likely to die from COVID than in an auto accident.

In the United States, over 500,000 people have died from COVID.

By these statistics, COVID is one of the most lethal causes of death in decades.

There is nothing "very small" or "unfortunate" or "incredibly unlucky" about COVID.

There is nothing "very small" or "unfortunate" or "incredibly unlucky" about 500,000 people dying.

We're only a few months away from having a sufficient number of people vaccinated to resume normal lives.

Now is not the time to lose focus.

 

[b2k1121]

That argument doesn’t apply here though. Wearing seatbelts only helps if you’re actually in a crash. Anyone who says “I never wore a seatbelt and I’m fine” should be smart enough to figure out the only reason they are fine is because they were never in a serious accident. I survived my childhood in the 80s because I was never in an accident, but you can bet I put my own children in much safer seats and always had them wear seatbelts when they outgrew their car seats.

The thing with Covid is that I, and everyone I know, are out and about being exposed every single day and going to get togethers and restaurants etc and we’re still fine. We haven’t just somehow managed to avoid it. As I said I know at least 30 people who have been positive, but not one has had an even moderate case. Some have felt crappy, but no one has needed any care other than rest.

So following your logic by exposing myself I am putting myself in an “accident” everyday. And if I and everyone I know has been doing that for the past year and we’re all just fine, then yes, I definitely doubt that we need any safety devices.

'I, personally, have not experienced anything bad, so what's the big deal? Who cares?'

There is no way we would ever survive a virus with a higher death rate, it's over for us if that happens.

 

[b2k1121]

"Small" is a relative term.

Statistically speaking, you are about 12,000 times more likely to die from COVID than lightning.

Statistically speaking, COVID is about 20 times more deadly than the flu.

Statistically speaking, you are 15 times more likely to die from COVID than in an auto accident.

In the United States, over 500,000 people have died from COVID.

By these statistics, COVID is one of the most lethal causes of death in decades.

There is nothing "very small" or "unfortunate" or "incredibly unlucky" about COVID.

There is nothing "very small" or "unfortunate" or "incredibly unlucky" about 500,000 people dying.

We're only a few months away from having a sufficient number of people vaccinated to resume normal lives.

Now is not the time to loose focus.

You don't understand. It didn't happen to them, so none of that matters.

 

[KingAugie]

You don't understand. It didn't happen to them, so none of that matters.

It didn't happen to 300,000,000 people.
People want to keep bringing up the 500,000 that died. It's terrible but what do people expect when a novel virus makes its way through the population? Let's remember nobody ever expected people to not get it or not die from it.
You all can continue with your impending doom but the stats don't warrant it.
People need to get back to their lives and livelihoods. The vaccine makes that possible but people are still going to get sick and people are still going to die. I consider those people the unlucky ones. Some of you are way too sensitive over words and facts.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

There is no way we would ever survive a virus with a higher death rate, it's over for us if that happens.

A virus with a high death rate probably would burn out faster. No one wants that of course not at all. But the fact that the death rate is what it is means the virus can stick around longer as it finds hosts to continue to spread it to, and those hosts can spread it to others and so on. That is actually working against us. I don't at all agree with what the other person is talking about so please don't think me responding with what I'm saying means I agree with them.

 

[b2k1121]

It didn't happen to 300,000,000 people.
People want to keep bringing up the 500,000 that died. It's terrible but what do people expect when a novel virus makes its way through the population? Let's remember nobody ever expected people to not get it or not die from it.
You all can continue with your impending doom but the stats don't warrant it.

Most people fall somewhere in between 'impending doom' and 'I don't care because it didn't effect me personally'. You can be concerned with how your actions might impact other people while not believing in 'impending doom'.

 

[KingAugie]

Most people fall somewhere in between 'impending doom' and 'I don't care because it didn't effect me personally'. You can be concerned with how your actions might impact other people while not believing in 'impending doom'.

Who here has said that they aren't concerned with how their actions might impact others?

 

[b2k1121]

Who here has said that they aren't concerned with how their actions might impact others?

Uh, the person that has been proudly exclaimly that they have not changed anything about their day to day life because they don't personally know anyone that has been negatively effected.

 

[KingAugie]

Uh, the person that has been proudly exclaimly that they have not changed anything about their day to day life because they don't personally know anyone that has been negatively effected.

You mean the person who said that they have been going about their daily life and hasn't contracted or spread COVID to anyone in the last year?
300,000,000 people not infected. I'm sure there are people who have shut down living but I think it's safe to assume that there are many in that 300 million who are doing the same as the OP.

 

[Nabas]

It didn't happen to 300,000,000 people.
People want to keep bringing up the 500,000 that died. It's terrible but what do people expect when a novel virus makes its way through the population? Let's remember nobody ever expected people to not get it or not die from it.
You all can continue with your impending doom but the stats don't warrant it.

The stats do not warrant "impending doom" but they do warrant great concern.

80 million people died in 5 years of war during WW2. 2.2 billion people survived. By your logic, ho hum, so what? Less than 3% of the World's population died. No big deal. Those 80 million people were just "incredibly unlucky".

In the U.S., 500,000 people died in 1 year even though much of the country shut down for months at a time. A year later, a vaccine is available and mask requirements are in place at all major stores and workplaces, yet thousands still die.

500,000 died in the United States despite many states taking extreme measures. 500,000 died despite most large businesses and chain stores requiring masks, despite extra cleaning, despite social distancing. What would the death toll be without these precautions? 2 million? 3 million? How many have to die before you stop using phrases such as "very small" or "unfortunate" or "incredibly unlucky"?

I think I understand where you are coming from. Yes, there are far too many people like the CDC director using irresponsible phrases such as "impending doom". Yes, we need to move on eventually. We are not there yet.

With vaccines available, we are getting close. IMO, we're going to have to get used to 36,000 dying every year from COVID, just like we are used to 36,000 dying every year from the flu and another 36,000 dying every year in motor vehicle accidents. We cannot remain in endless lockdowns. We cannot wear masks forever.

But we are still well above 36,000 annual COVID deaths. At the moment, the rolling average is about 700 deaths per day in the U.S. That's 250,000 per year. We still have a ways to go to reach 36,000 annual deaths.

We all need to get vaccinated as quickly as possible so we can get back to normal as quickly as possible.

 

[Tiggerette]

The percentage of asymptomatic spread is astounding to me, compared to other diseases. (At first, I questioned that data!) In my reasoning about this type of transmission, for those who say they've never contracted or spread covid to anyone without having an antibody test, are speaking from hope or ignorance, but not fact.


In a way, I hope the variants cause more symptoms to appear. It may help to reduce transmission from the spreaders who are ignorant of their infection status. Of course, that is a high price to pay for the people who aren't just carriers of disease, but are symptomatically sick from it. It's not a good situation, either way.

Once we figure out how to demonstrate that transmission is occurring for asymptomatic people much more easily than we have now, and which people are at-risk for severe disease beyond the co-morbidities we know now, I think we will fear less and make more "good choices" about our behavior. At least, this is my hope for 2-3 years from now. Right now, I'm hoping we might think with kindness and generosity to preserve the health of strangers we interact with as we go about our day.

 

[KingAugie]

The stats do warrant great concern but not "impending doom".

80 million people died in WW2. 2.2 billion people survived. By your logic, ho hum, so what? Less than 3% of the World's population died. No big deal. Those 80 million people were just "incredibly unlucky".

In the U.S., 500,000 people have died even though much of the country shut down for months at a time. A year later, a vaccine is available and mask requirements are in place at all major stores and workplaces, yet thousands still die.

500,000 died in the United States despite many states taking extreme measures. 500,000 died despite most large businesses and chain stores requiring masks, despite extra cleaning, despite social distancing. What would the death toll be without these precautions? 2 million? 3 million? How many have to die before you stop using phrases such as "very small" or "unfortunate" or "incredibly unlucky"?

Anyone who contracts a virus and dies is unlucky. It is unfortunate and it isn't going to change no matter how small the amount of people who do.

I think I understand where you are coming from. Yes, there are far too many people like the CDC director using irresponsible phrases such as "impending doom". Yes, we need to move on eventually. We are not there yet.

I disagree, we are there. It is time, it's been a year and people are being vaccinated. That doesn't mean we move on to 100% pre-COVID but it means we start opening more and more.

With vaccines available, we are getting close. IMO, we're going to have to get used to 36,000 dying every year from COVID, just like we are used to 36,000 dying every year from the flu and another 36,000 dying in motor vehicle accidents every year. We can't remain in an endless lockdown. We cannot wear masks forever.

But we are still well above 36,000 annual COVID deaths. At the moment, the rolling average is about 700 deaths per day in the U.S. That's 250,000 per year. We still have a ways to go to reach 36,000 annual deaths.

I thought it was a no-no to compare anything about COVID to the Flu. It's a novel virus, it may be many year, perhaps decades until the death rate is the same.

We all need to get vaccinated as quickly as possible so we can get back to normal as quickly as possible.

Yes, people need to get vaccinated to get back to normal, however there are places where they have been doing that throughout the last year. That was without a vaccine, now that we have one it's time for more and more places to get rolling IMO.

 

[b2k1121]

You mean the person who said that they have been going about their daily life and hasn't contracted or spread COVID to anyone in the last year?
300,000,000 people not infected. I'm sure there are people who have shut down living but I think it's safe to assume that there are many in that 300 million who are doing the same as the OP.

Oh wow, they know they didn't spread it to anyone in the last year? Considering that that is impossible to know, that's an amazing feat.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Oh wow, they know they didn't spread it to anyone in the last year? Considering that that is impossible to know, that's an amazing feat.

You don't think the people ignoring a pandemic are rushing to get tested anytime they display mild symptoms?

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

We're only a few months away from having a sufficient number of people vaccinated to resume normal lives.

Now is not the time to lose focus.

What sucks is every transmission is a chance for a virus to mutate. Given enough opportunities, a mutation that is resistant to vaccination could develop.

It's crazy to me that we're seeing states remove all restrictions with 15% of their population vaccinated. I understand that many areas of these states weren't exactly taking precautions prior to the mandates being lifted but it's only going to encourage that behavior.

 

[godisney14]

My county’s health director sent out a notice today saying there was a pediatric death due to COVID for the very first time of a county resident. No further details released (HIPAA and maybe because it was a pediatric patient). It apparently happened before schools began hybrid a few weeks ago in my county.

This news brings me back to our (virtual) school board meetings from last year. There was a high school student advocating for very strict safety protocols when schools return because he was infected and had long haul symptoms. This same student came online during the next school board meeting because there were parents berating him and calling him a liar on Facebook in response to his initial comment, and he felt like he had to state his innocence. I mean he wasn’t even anti-reopening. He just wanted the board to know that the virus is real and can affect children, and thus he wanted schools to be safe. Weird.

 

[tinkerdorabelle]

Just got first shot but husband and I had to drive an hour away after trying for weeks and trying to maneuver through the internet for endless tries. Why aren't vaccines available at local doctors at least by me hard to get and harder for poorer people or those not internet savvy. NJ had large increase spike. So no I don't think doom but there is a mismanagement of sorts why CVS can get but to get at docs you have to go to a base place in NYC instead of local doc and had to make appt on internet and I was getting no where on site. News said trying to get more vaccines to Northeast

 

[Christine]

Just got first shot but husband and I had to drive an hour away after trying for weeks and trying to maneuver through the internet for endless tries. Why aren't vaccines available at local doctors at least by me hard to get and harder for poorer people or those not internet savvy. NJ had large increase spike. So no I don't think doom but there is a mismanagement of sorts why CVS can get but to get at docs you have to go to a base place in NYC instead of local doc and had to make appt on internet and I was getting no where on site. News said trying to get more vaccines to Northeast

If your talking about the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, it is very hard for a small medical practice to hold and administer those vaccines due to the low freezer temps required and the necessity to use all of the doses once removed from the freezer. I would say that most medical practices don't own freezers like that. No medical practice in my area is giving vaccines for that reason. Now, with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine coming on, I think you're going to see many more local medical practices obtaining that vaccine but they aren't there yet with distribution.

 

[dvcgirl67]

If your talking about the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, it is very hard for a small medical practice to hold and administer those vaccines due to the low freezer temps required and the necessity to use all of the doses once removed from the freezer. I would say that most medical practices don't own freezers like that. No medical practice in my area is giving vaccines for that reason. Now, with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine coming on, I think you're going to see many more local medical practices obtaining that vaccine but they aren't there yet with distribution.

I think it's the long term storage, and also lack of supply right now keeping it out of many smaller medical practices. I did read however, that both mRNA vaccines can survive after thawing....in regular refrigerators for up to two weeks. So hopefully that will help getting the vaccine out, in particular to rural areas, when the supply builds.

https://observer.com/2021/02/pfizer-covid-vaccine-no-freeze-normal-temperatures-stable/
I also read yesterday that J&J announced that 15 million vaccines need to be tossed out because of quality concerns. But, these types of setbacks are to be expected. This is why it's good to buy more vaccine than we need, because these types of issues are going to occur.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/world/johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-mixup.html.

 

[sam_gordon]

Oh wow, they know they didn't spread it to anyone in the last year? Considering that that is impossible to know, that's an amazing feat.

When I donate blood, they test for covid antibodies. I've donated twice in the last year. Both antibody tests have come back negative. In between, I took a rapid test for work. It came back negative. Based on those factors, I feel pretty safe saying I haven't had Covid. Since I haven't had Covid, I couldn't spread it to anyone. While that may not be 100%, I'd say it's at least 95%, which most people seem to find acceptable.