CDC Director: Impending Doom

I think the director of the CDC knows more then the general public.

She is most likely looking at the recent research, looking at places like MI and the UK, and seeing the survey data saying 30% don’t intend to get vaccinated and figuring from those items that we’re doomed. Makes perfect sense to me. Thus, I got more bread flour yesterday. And I’ll get more TP next week.
 
I’m not scared but I will say, in my county, just over 50% of school personnel chose to get the vaccine. I don’t understand it, but what can you do? I got my first shot Friday because I had to wait 90 days. I’m glad to have the chance to be vaccinated but not everyone I know sees it that way.
 
She is most likely looking at the recent research, looking at places like MI and the UK, and seeing the survey data saying 30% don’t intend to get vaccinated and figuring from those items that we’re doomed. Makes perfect sense to me. Thus, I got more bread flour yesterday. And I’ll get more TP next week.
Michigan is a hot spot right now.
 

Dr. Rochelle Walensky is scared.

Are you?

I am not. Every person over 65 that I know is vaccinated. Well, I know two eligible people that refused the vaccine. Oh well.

Every teacher that I know is vaccinated. I don't know any that have refused.

And, in fact, I am the opposite of scared. I have more hope now than in the last year.

Honestly, yes. Because every person I know over 65 is at least partially vaccinated. The teachers I know are fully vaccinated, with just one infuriating exception. The grocery store workers I know are all at least partially vaccinated. About half of my parent-friends are at least partially vaccinated. Every adult in my family except DH is at least partially vaccinated. And yet, my county is seeing daily case counts of more than double what they were at our previous peak back in November. Hospitalizations are rising faster in my state than they did then, with the median age of those hospitalized a full two decades younger. I'm hearing more people talking about their second case of covid, though that's purely anecdotal and not from the most reliable/verifiable sources. And these trends are happening in places where 25 to 50% of the population has had at least one shot and it is estimated that 40 to 50% have already had covid (using the CDC's multiplier on the confirmed case counts).

It is hard to see much cause for hope when we should theoretically be reaching a point, between vaccination and previous infection, of slowing spread but are instead seeing it accelerating. My fear right now is that either the vaccine simply isn't as effective as it needs to be or the newer variants are causing widespread reinfection or both, because I have a hard time seeing any other explanation for the level of spread we have right now. I think I'm actually more concerned now than I have been at any point in this thing, because the vaccine was supposed to be the light at the end of the tunnel but the current trend has somewhat undermined my confidence in that solution.
 
Tea leaves and incoming data do paint a picture of potential doom -- flattening of drop of cases currently at October levels (which weren't great numbers -- 50,000cases a day). Vaccination at 20% and large segments continue vaccine hesitancy or outright passing. The hopes of getting to 70% vaccination is still a very high bar. And the potential of the variants.

It isn't horrible. We're getting better; but we have stalled out a bit on the numbers despite 20% vaccinated. Guess it's like this: we're still down 14 points. Current drive was cruising and now we're in the red zone but last two plays were short gains and just had a 5 yard illegal motion. Now it's 3rd and 7 on the 18 and we're seeing people celebrating and talking about comebacks and way not just run another off tackle right play.
 
All I know is a friend of mine went to a family wedding a couple of weeks ago where nobody followed any of the guidelines, and so far 14 people have now fallen ill with Covid including her sister-in-law, two of her cousins, and the bride's father. Nobody was displaying any symptoms at the time of the wedding. It's *that* damn easy to spread around. This is all far from over, and although there's an element of fearmongering in the CDC director's statement I get where she's coming from. It must be so frustrating to see that people are just not coming together and doing what they're supposed to do.
 
Tea leaves and incoming data do paint a picture of potential doom -- flattening of drop of cases currently at October levels (which weren't great numbers -- 50,000cases a day). Vaccination at 20% and large segments continue vaccine hesitancy or outright passing. The hopes of getting to 70% vaccination is still a very high bar. And the potential of the variants.

It isn't horrible. We're getting better; but we have stalled out a bit on the numbers despite 20% vaccinated. Guess it's like this: we're still down 14 points. Current drive was cruising and now we're in the red zone but last two plays were short gains and just had a 5 yard illegal motion. Now it's 3rd and 7 on the 18 and we're seeing people celebrating and talking about comebacks and way not just run another off tackle right play.

Well put ..I hope some can grasp it. I think most people are just afraid of dying from a vaccine that has a .0018% chance of killing them.
 
Having come through the winter surge alive, most of us are breathing much easier based on March numbers, but remember that back in the summer, those same numbers were considered very bad, and the rules about masks and distance and indoor gatherings were considered necessary. We're on the down track of the coaster right now, and that's good, but we're still stuck on a hill, and the rescue ladder still isn't tall enough to reach to get us down.

So, *I'm* not scared, but I can see why she would be. If there is a significant uptick in cases it will be her job to fix it, and anticipating that you might have to personally deal with thousands and thousands of people unnecessarily dying on your watch is a scary prospect for most healthcare professionals. It doesn't mean that she won't rise to the occasion, and I have no problem with a health professional actually saying what she is thinking. I have a lot of friends and family who work on the front lines, and the stress that happens every time they lose a patient is cumulative. She was in charge of the response at Massachusetts General during the winter, so she was right in the thick of the storm. She probably sees those numbers and does math in her head that figures out what that means in man-hours, or even body bags. Remember that in real terms, those astronomical odds like one-hundredth of one percent still represent a potential loss of nearly 33,000 warm bodies in this country.

Several countries in Europe have had to lock down again as hospitals are once again overwhelmed, and I think that for front-line infectous disease workers, that's one heck of a dark cloud to see coming over the horizon. Granted, she didn't phrase it very elegantly, but I'm sure that what she meant about being scared was a reflection of worries about the resiliency of the health care system. It has been bent an awful lot lately, and she's worried it could finally break. If you look at news reports from medical facilities elsewhere in the world, there are several places where health care systems that are more robust than our own are showing clear signs of impending collapse.

I personally am remaining cautious for now, same as I mostly have been. Mask still on and still no eating indoors, probably for at least another 2 months; it won't hurt me, and there is a chance it might help someone else, so why not? DH will be vaccinated next week, but my DS23 probably won't be for a while. He doesn't live with us now, but he lives in a hot spot, and he's not changing any of his habits for now, even though his state government has abandoned all controls. He says that most businesses around him are voluntarily sticking with caution, too, just in case the CDC Director actually might be onto something.
 
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Honestly, yes. Because every person I know over 65 is at least partially vaccinated. The teachers I know are fully vaccinated, with just one infuriating exception. The grocery store workers I know are all at least partially vaccinated. About half of my parent-friends are at least partially vaccinated. Every adult in my family except DH is at least partially vaccinated. And yet, my county is seeing daily case counts of more than double what they were at our previous peak back in November. Hospitalizations are rising faster in my state than they did then, with the median age of those hospitalized a full two decades younger. I'm hearing more people talking about their second case of covid, though that's purely anecdotal and not from the most reliable/verifiable sources. And these trends are happening in places where 25 to 50% of the population has had at least one shot and it is estimated that 40 to 50% have already had covid (using the CDC's multiplier on the confirmed case counts).

It is hard to see much cause for hope when we should theoretically be reaching a point, between vaccination and previous infection, of slowing spread but are instead seeing it accelerating. My fear right now is that either the vaccine simply isn't as effective as it needs to be or the newer variants are causing widespread reinfection or both, because I have a hard time seeing any other explanation for the level of spread we have right now. I think I'm actually more concerned now than I have been at any point in this thing, because the vaccine was supposed to be the light at the end of the tunnel but the current trend has somewhat undermined my confidence in that solution.

The current science is previous infection provides up to 6 months of protection. But it provides really no protection against the South African variant.
 
I honestly don't know. Sadly, there has been a pattern of projections regarding vaccines being grossly optomistic . A local health department head yesterday responded to Dr. Walensky's concerns and said "we may have to come to the realization that having enough vaccine for everyone may not happen until December"


If there will be fewer vaccines coming in the near term, I wish they would just say that and be honest. It’s insulting for them to treat us like we are incompetent.
 
The current science is previous infection provides up to 6 months of protection. But it provides really no protection against the South African variant.
This is why I’m getting vaccinated next month even though I had covid a few weeks ago. My daughter had it twice.
 
I told my doctor about feeling a sense of doom at my last appointment and got offered Lexapro. lol.

Seriously, though, I'm not scared by what the CDC director is saying. I am a little confused. I would like to hear more data. Are the hospitalizations and deaths unvaccinated people in their 20-40s? The statistical breakdown would be helpful to know.
 
It's been said since the very beginning with all vaccines for Covid, that none of them will prevent you from getting it.
You can still get it, and spread it, but when you do get it, it shouldn't be as full on as it has been for the past year.

AND >>> " ...A more highly transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7, has been detected in start highlight12end highlight U.S. states... "

^^^ from >>> https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm
 
People are still dying of COVID here. One just this week was an 18 year old girl who was active and involved in sports, who had her whole life ahead of her. Only 18 years old!! I'm 47 and realistically it will probably be months before I can hunt down a vaccine, when I'm even eligible. My 14 year old won't be able to get a vaccine until one is approved for her age group, probably fall at the earliest. I'd love to be happy and hopeful and think this is all behind us, but I'm just exhausted and sad seeing the reality is different. I know people my age who had COVID and it was as mild as a cold for them, other friends my age were hospitalized, and three of my friends lost parents to COVID. I agree with previous posters saying they are concerned by the fact that numbers are going up so much even in light of how many have been vaccinated and have natural immunity. When will it all end?
 


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