Another way is all resorts (prior to Riviera) pay $1 to BVTC per member so you could look at resort budgets to see how many members there are with that info.
These seem really far off for the number of club members that Disney reports. Attached is the multi-site POS updated 9/2017 for number of club members which is very different then what was calculated above.
You are saying that the thought is they count a member in the first resort that a member owns, correct? I would think as the Multi-Site POS says it is the number of Club Members that own that resort. So what I think it would represent is the number of Membership IDs that own at the resort (not the number of contracts). I would then think the numbers reported in that thread and updated by you are the number of contracts, which an owner can own multiple contracts. I think this for a couple reasons I would think that a lot of the OKW owners would be owners where OKW is the resort they first bought into ever thus the difference between OKW counts in the multi-site POS and the numbers you present should be closest of all the resorts (though it is some of the furthest). Also OKW had a 210 minimum buy in for almost the entirety of the active sales period thus I would assume the average # of points should be close to 210 and above (as shown in another thread the resale turnover is much lower than expected for OKW, I think 10-15% of the resort only was found). If you divide by your number you get 170 points but by the number in the multi-site POS you get 290, which makes more sense with the minimum buy in.
So in the Multi-Site POS you are saying they are reporting unique member IDs at the resort and they charge the BVTC on each unique member at the resort (if two owners they count twice)? Seems odd to charge per unique members but I guess it does say a club member is a unique person that has an ownership interest.
(Slightly off topic but just clarify I believe the numbers at OKW were estimated to be about 8-10K resale to 51K total deeds, so about 15-20% resale - but still lower than expected and slower turnover than other resorts.)
Yes, I’m interested to see what CCV’s numbers come in at. Even with VGF and then PVB we start to see a dip in the mean average. Like @KAT4DISNEY said, a median could better show us just how many people are buying smaller than average contracts, but more difficult to figure that out...
If I’m reading this right, does that mean we should be using the smaller number of members listed in the Multi Site POS to calculate average contract size?
I think the 10-15% was the in aggregate number of resale owners? Also thanks for the more accurate numbers on OKW.
Me too for example OCC shows about 30k deeds for PVB which is close to the number that BVTC charges on but way off from the number they report in the Multi-Site POS. I’m very confused to say the least. I do know the best average would be per unique member ID at the resort but that is something really hard to piece together quickly. Would have been great if the numbers Disney provided were clear what they meant.
My guess would be that we see the average and median fairly close for most resorts. I don’t think there are enough large point owners to skew the average in any meaningful way. Though I could be completely wrong on that and you are correct knowing the median is important to see this info because it gives a better measure of demand on smaller units. If we had the data to get the median I would then be interested in looking at quantiles or even other percentiles.
Oh yes, that’s right.
And BLT has I think about 38K deeds recorded on OCC, so again closer to the BVTC number...
My point was they are different from the club members DVC declares that each resort has and the fee charged. The fee is supposed to be per club member. So there is definite disconnect between the numbers. If both (DVC declared and contracts recorded) are correct it means on average a person owns 1.5-2 contracts per resort. Which then means the average owned by a member at a resort has been significantly under reported if we look at the average contract size.
1BR are probably easiest to get (and the point hog cabins). If you get enough points for a 1BR when you can't grab that studio, you should be fine. I had a studio there for one night last Oct (booked kinda last minute) . But they were still kinda newly selling so there weren't as many owners yet to contend with for booking.
I agree with the advice of @KAT4DISNEY though I did want to point out there really isn't that severe of a discount on CCV direct (what the original owner paid) and what resales are averaging. It is much inline with how the recent resorts have all performed in resale while the resort was still in active resales or just sold out.
It could have been 176-188 depending when bought. I would assume it's resale value is somewhere between 140-160 and depending how many years of points they used considering their market value of about $8-9 a point (in excess of dues) means they might not be that big of a loss as it seems.
