CCV Direct or More Resale (CCV or SSR)

[airjay75]

Well.. this is a first. I don’t have a full solid opinion here. I do know that I don’t see value in owning SSR over CCV for many reasons.

Where I am stuck with my opinion is flipping CCV resale for CCV direct. 600 direct points are a lot of unrestricted points. I just don’t know if more are really needed in the short term. Just like how this SSR incentive came along others will too. What if there is a fire sale on something in the future and all you have to sell off is direct points?

So if it’s CCV vs SSR direct, CCV all day long. But I’m going to say I’m not sure CCV direct right now is the best idea, while not terrible just not the best.

Really appreciate your thoughts. I think you are helping me feel better about my indecisiveness here. I think it probably comes down to, am I ready to commit to CCV for the long-term or do I want some flexibility for what may come in the future? Resale gives you flexibility. Buying direct commits you for the long-term (or you end up facing steep losses). And, like you said, I've got 600 unrestricted, direct points - do I actually need more right now? No. As a hedge against the future? Maybe. But, it's a gamble that may or may not pay off.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Really appreciate your thoughts. I think you are helping me feel better about my indecisiveness here. I think it probably comes down to, am I ready to commit to CCV for the long-term or do I want some flexibility for what may come in the future? Resale gives you flexibility. Buying direct commits you for the long-term (or you end up facing steep losses). And, like you said, I've got 600 unrestricted, direct points - do I actually need more right now? No. As a hedge against the future? Maybe. But, it's a gamble that may or may not pay off.

I think the next year will show us alot about DVC that we don’t know yet and change things in so many ways.

LSL will go on sale. A new standalone mega resort, that hasn’t happened in a long time. It may be in a trust which is brand new. We will see how DVC is going to be creating point charts for all new resorts. And also how they may be pricing dues.

RIV will sell out and we will see what happens with resale on a sold out restricted resort. And we will see how that affects availability.

 

[ShaneDJ]

@airjay75 My thoughts are to maximize the premium of buying CCV direct vs. resale, I would only buy CCV direct as a Fixed Week during week 49 or 50, or during your Spring Break.

Since you are paying so much for the “privilege” of direct points, might as well get the other added benefit of getting a FW contract that you could use during the most difficult weeks to book.

Good luck with your decision!

 

[AstroBlasters]

I’m in the camp that direct matters a lot more at DL because of DL FWD than it does at WDW.

 

[airjay75]

I think the next year will show us alot about DVC that we don’t know yet and change things in so many ways.

LSL will go on sale. A new standalone mega resort, that hasn’t happened in a long time. It may be in a trust which is brand new. We will see how DVC is going to be creating point charts for all new resorts. And also how they may be pricing dues.

RIV will sell out and we will see what happens with resale on a sold out restricted resort. And we will see how that affects availability.

Yeah, I totally agree.

The way I talk myself into this is convincing myself that, yes, LSL will be sold via trust (as will all resorts going forward), LSL will be massive with plenty of availability at the 7-month mark, it's dues will be higher, it's points chart will be higher than RIV (lower than PVB/VGF), and, although it will be a resort that I think I will quite end up liking, I won't want to own there. I could very well see them raising CCV "sold out" pricing so as to make any LSL shoppers interested in WL and CCV think twice before just going with LSL (see PIT and VGF, although I'll concede VGF probably appeals to a slightly different class of DVC shoppers willing to pay the extra premium).

I also tend to be someone a bit skeptical about restrictions and resale owners significantly affecting 7-month availability at restricted resorts. I think we all greatly overestimate the percentage of resale owners, any effect with be somewhat balanced out by the fact that resale owners at other resorts can no longer switch into restricted resorts, and I think we will see more periodic flash sales on restricted resorts which may end up resulting in a smaller percentage of resale ownership at those resorts than we've historically seen at the O14.

If the above is right, I think buying more CCV direct points right now feels like a smart hedge against the future.

But, that is all my personal speculation. I could be wrong. Maybe resale restrictions eventually create a system where every resort becomes a VGC - or, maybe something not quite that bad, but more like BCV. Pretty difficult to get in at the 7-month mark, but not impossible. But, nonetheless, that is still a system where direct points don't matter quite so much because you're going to be using them at your home resort most of the time anyways. Maybe I end up loving LSL, there are resort view rooms that are actually somewhat on par with a CCV/BRV points chart, but you sort of have to own there to get them.

If some of those other things come to fruition, buying direct points now will look more like wasted money. I suppose I'd still be content with the fact that my new direct points still give me flexibility in the sense that they can be used for things like exchanging for APs (for now) or for cruises (maybe exchanges will get at least halfway decent in the future). Still, those things alone aren't very good reasons to spend thousands of dollars swapping resale for direct points or buying direct instead of resale points.

 

[airjay75]

@airjay75 My thoughts are to maximize the premium of buying CCV direct vs. resale, I would only buy CCV direct as a Fixed Week during week 49 or 50, or during your Spring Break.

Since you are paying so much for the “privilege” of direct points, might as well get the other added benefit of getting a FW contract that you could use during the most difficult weeks to book.

Good luck with your decision!

Appreciate the thoughts. That may well be the smart move, but I think the only FW I could see buying would be a studio FW, and I would never use it. Fortunately, with my spring break being Easter week and so points heavy, it's not too bad to secure with home resort priority. That leaves the holidays, which can certainly be rough at CCV. That said, I've got an October UY, and I paid a fair amount of attention to booking this past year - even played around with walking reservations to get a feel for it. I feel pretty good about being able to get what I want for December if I needed to without a FW. It would take a little bit of work but it's also not something I'd be doing every year. Of course, that could change, things could get even tougher to book during that time, but I feel ok about it right now. That said, if it did get worse (and it very well could), that still argues in favor of resale because you can just offload it and say, it's not worth it anymore.

 

[airjay75]

I’m in the camp that direct matters a lot more at DL because of DL FWD than it does at WDW.

Yeah, I agree with that too. That said, if you're a WDW-centric family that might have a passing interest in visiting DLR at some point in the future (but unlikely to ever own there), having direct WDW points might make that easier too. As best I can tell, in current state, no you're probably not getting into VGC. You might be able to pick up a few of the leftovers at VDH if you're ok with studios and flexible with your dates. If they build a massive, new DVC resort part of DL FWD, then maybe WDW direct owners suddenly have an option at DLR that isn't so unobtainable. That said, for me, I'd also put this in the bucket of benefits that are currently pretty meaningless at the moment - just theoretical, potential future benefits that may never materialize.

 

[Brian Noble]

I've got 600 unrestricted, direct points - do I actually need more right now? No. As a hedge against the future? Maybe. But, it's a gamble that may or may not pay off.

This is what I keep coming back to. I don't think there is a problem to solve, so I am not sure why you are solving it.

Instead, here's what I would do: Figure out (roughly) what you would spend to recycle the resale CCV points for developer points. Take that and plow it into a target-dated fund, maybe 2040 plus or minus, on the assumption that if you do have a problem to solve, it won't be until much closer to the 2042 Epcot resorts cliff. Call that your DVC Rainy Day Fund.

Then, if you have a problem to solve, you have a nice little nest egg with which to solve it. Plus, buying the fund gives you the "I solved a problem" dopamine hit without actually having to commit the cash to DVC irretrievably.

 

[Brian Noble]

And if you find you don't have a problem to solve, you will have a very large couch holding a lot of spare change.

 

[airjay75]

150-100-50 also works.

That is a split that had not occurred to me yet. I might actually really like that one if I end up pulling the trigger.

 

[eticketplease]

And if you find you don't have a problem to solve, you will have a very large couch holding a lot of spare change.

Hopefully some of these will be the rare pennies at that time

 

[airjay75]

Then, if you have a problem to solve, you have a nice little nest egg with which to solve it. Plus, buying the fund gives you the "I solved a problem" dopamine hit without actually having to commit the cash to DVC irretrievably.

Really appreciate your thoughts and words. I think you're right - this really does become the problem - the dopamine hit. You're giving me an alternative path that I need to think about taking.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

Yeah, I totally agree.

The way I talk myself into this is convincing myself that, yes, LSL will be sold via trust (as will all resorts going forward), LSL will be massive with plenty of availability at the 7-month mark, it's dues will be higher, it's points chart will be higher than RIV (lower than PVB/VGF), and, although it will be a resort that I think I will quite end up liking, I won't want to own there. I could very well see them raising CCV "sold out" pricing so as to make any LSL shoppers interested in WL and CCV think twice before just going with LSL (see PIT and VGF, although I'll concede VGF probably appeals to a slightly different class of DVC shoppers willing to pay the extra premium).

I also tend to be someone a bit skeptical about restrictions and resale owners significantly affecting 7-month availability at restricted resorts. I think we all greatly overestimate the percentage of resale owners, any effect with be somewhat balanced out by the fact that resale owners at other resorts can no longer switch into restricted resorts, and I think we will see more periodic flash sales on restricted resorts which may end up resulting in a smaller percentage of resale ownership at those resorts than we've historically seen at the O14.

If the above is right, I think buying more CCV direct points right now feels like a smart hedge against the future.

But, that is all my personal speculation. I could be wrong. Maybe resale restrictions eventually create a system where every resort becomes a VGC - or, maybe something not quite that bad, but more like BCV. Pretty difficult to get in at the 7-month mark, but not impossible. But, nonetheless, that is still a system where direct points don't matter quite so much because you're going to be using them at your home resort most of the time anyways. Maybe I end up loving LSL, there are resort view rooms that are actually somewhat on par with a CCV/BRV points chart, but you sort of have to own there to get them.

If some of those other things come to fruition, buying direct points now will look more like wasted money. I suppose I'd still be content with the fact that my new direct points still give me flexibility in the sense that they can be used for things like exchanging for APs (for now) or for cruises (maybe exchanges will get at least halfway decent in the future). Still, those things alone aren't very good reasons to spend thousands of dollars swapping resale for direct points or buying direct instead of resale points.

I don’t think restricted resort resale is a problem YET. We haven’t quite hit the mark on ownership length at Riviera where a family says “I think we’re kinda done being annual WDW people” but we’re getting closer. When that wave of contracts turns over, there will be a ton of points “stuck” at Riviera.

I just don't think it’s your problem as a direct owner because you can stay anywhere.

 

[Brian Noble]

Yeah, I felt pretty good about coming up with that idea. It's one of the bonus side-effects of being a recovering addict.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I haven’t done the math but you could look at it this way. 1. You are spending X$ right now to flip these direct to 2. save X$ in the future.

1 is the amount you are spending to flip resale direct
2 is the cost difference of today CCV vs future CCV without incentives and say $5-$10 more per point base price increase

Sorry to word it this way I just don’t have the numbers in front me. But I hope this made sense!

 

[airjay75]

I haven’t done the math but you could look at it this way. 1. You are spending X$ right now to flip these direct to 2. save X$ in the future.

1 is the amount you are spending to flip resale direct
2 is the cost difference of today CCV vs future CCV without incentives and say $5-$10 more per point base price increase

Sorry to word it this way I just don’t have the numbers in front me. But I hope this made sense!

Thank you! Yes, I totally get what you’re saying. And I think the answer is probably not worth it. This is a $26/point incentive. On 300 points, that amounts to $7,800.

If I say the cost to wash these points is about $22,000 today and I go invest that for a 6% return for just 5 years, I’d have about $29,500 or $7,500 more money. If I manage to get an 8% return, that goes to about $32,300 or $10,300 more. And that’s just over 5 years. The differences will grow even more if I were to wait longer.

I think I’m coming back to my senses.

 

[ark101]

Maybe this will help but we put the brakes on direct CCV solely for the purpose of futureproofing. We don't have resale there and not looking to replace anything so slightly different situation.
Our reasoning
- We like BRV more than CCV so already compromising
- We will likely buy more direct IF they build any resort with direct access to parks and not rely on getting into that at 7 months
- We will likely buy direct at what ever replaces BCV or BWV in 2042

Essentially what Brian Noble said, my wife told me not to fix a problem we do not have due to FOMO/dopamine hit and in addition pointed out how we have a history of buying at resorts we really liked even though we have a bunch of direct points already. (We had a bunch of direct at VGF (yay fire sale) before we bought at RIV and Poly in addition after staying at those resorts)