Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

I felt a little safer with vdh because I think cali will net at least $150 for a future sale. I really think i would have gone with poly if I saw resale in the low 100s. It does matter to me but I know it doesnt matter to others so much. Not saying it cant go much lower, I just feel the chances of it not are stronger than at the other restricted resorts in fl

I think DLR DVC resorts will likely always be worth more than WDW DVC, simply because there are so few. Even if they add a 3rd one with Disneyland Forward....that's still nothing compared to the amount at WDW. At some point, it will really be oversaturated, I think....if it isn't already.
 
I think DLR DVC resorts will likely always be worth more than WDW DVC, simply because there are so few. Even if they add a 3rd one with Disneyland Forward....that's still nothing compared to the amount at WDW. At some point, it will really be oversaturated, I think....if it isn't already.
I think it is oversaturated, but i love more choices for me, so saturate away lol
 
I think people are underestimating the long term effect of the restrictions. RIV is still an actively sold resort and we are already seeing contracts reaching the low 100s. I truly believe that 5 years from now a RIV resale will sell for the same or less than a SSR or OKW2 (2057) resale.

Sure it might sound like a bargain... but as time passes more and more RIV resale will exist which will cause a very interesting 11 month booking window war.
I would actually bet the opposite, that RIV average resale price will never start getting below avg SSR/OKW levels. I think RIV resale will actually increase once RIV sells out and DVC become more likely to ROFR it and the direct sold out price increases.

Resale restrictions are the new normal and will matter less and less as time goes on. In 5 or 10 years when more resorts have opened and all are restricted, the older resorts are closer to expiration, and (IMO) booking problems get even tighter, some of the less desirable resorts like OKW and SSR may have trouble trading at 7 months anyway. In a way they could end up restricting themselves lol.

And a lot of people would rather be "stuck" at RIV or one of the the newer restricted resorts than SSR or OKW
 
I would actually bet the opposite, that RIV average resale price will never start getting below avg SSR/OKW levels. I think RIV resale will actually increase once RIV sells out and DVC become more likely to ROFR it and the direct sold out price increases.
I have actually thought this is true as well. Buying resale when you can buy direct RIV just doesnt make much sense for most. But if you cant buy RIV direct then resale is the only option and think that will make the price increase a bit.
 

Wait, what? RIV is better than VGF?

Restrictions don’t matter and it was all the pandemic?

I think this is gaslighting propagated by RIV owners with Stockholm Syndrome.

4 to 5 months RIV beat VGF. VGF needed a fire sale to get it sold out.

The pandemic did indeed impact sales and while restrictions play some role in people’s decision, it has still sold over 5 million points.

Obviously this level of sales for a restricted resort works for DVD as they continue.

ETA: Resale value goes down faster right now than PVB tower…but that only matters if the owner who buys cares.

Just a remember that there is no need to make critical statements about other posters.
 
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This is very interesting to me, I wonder why theyre not pushing Riv harder since theyre having to pay all that interest.

CFW was pushed on us first and i noticed a hard poly push with us since. Riv was only suggested to me when the guide got to know me better and thought it would be the best fit

Maybe because they have had great success with selling those rooms to cash guests?
 
I have actually thought this is true as well. Buying resale when you can buy direct RIV just doesnt make much sense for most. But if you cant buy RIV direct then resale is the only option and think that will make the price increase a bit.
Yep.

Also the value of resale SSR and OKW should be seen as depreciating faster than resale RIV. They have sooner expirations, so every year that expires a larger % of their remaining contract is lost. Around 1/30th lost per year right now for OKW/SSR vs 1/43rd ish for RIV. And then post 2054/2057 RIV will still have value where those are expired

AND as resorts expire and 7 month booking possibly continues to tighten, SSR and OKW lose some of their SAP power that was holding them up. They will be racing to 0 faster than any of the other non 2042 resorts IMO
 
I would actually bet the opposite, that RIV average resale price will never start getting below avg SSR/OKW levels. I think RIV resale will actually increase once RIV sells out and DVC become more likely to ROFR it and the direct sold out price increases.

Resale restrictions are the new normal and will matter less and less as time goes on. In 5 or 10 years when more resorts have opened and all are restricted, the older resorts are closer to expiration, and (IMO) booking problems get even tighter, some of the less desirable resorts like OKW and SSR may have trouble trading at 7 months anyway. In a way they could end up restricting themselves lol.

And a lot of people would rather be "stuck" at RIV or one of the the newer restricted resorts than SSR or OKW

I think it will be interesting to see where it lands once sold out.

I think it is going to stabilize around $120. We know that DVD has already taken a contract via ROFR at $98. Who knows what has happened at other brokers.

Now, as time goes on, maybe owners hold more resorts because of the restrictions and just do the whole alternating more than before?

Or split stays become more popular?
 
I would actually bet the opposite, that RIV average resale price will never start getting below avg SSR/OKW levels. I think RIV resale will actually increase once RIV sells out and DVC become more likely to ROFR it and the direct sold out price increases.

Resale restrictions are the new normal and will matter less and less as time goes on. In 5 or 10 years when more resorts have opened and all are restricted, the older resorts are closer to expiration, and (IMO) booking problems get even tighter, some of the less desirable resorts like OKW and SSR may have trouble trading at 7 months anyway. In a way they could end up restricting themselves lol.

And a lot of people would rather be "stuck" at RIV or one of the the newer restricted resorts than SSR or OKW
The key is that you will really be "stuck" at RIV... but you are not really "stuck" at SSR or OKW. Even in 2042 you will still be able to book 7 properties (VGC, OKW, SSR, CCV, Poly, AKV and BLT) which provides a whole lot more rooms. Theres is value in having options specially for last minute bookings.

Regarding ROFR I've never bought the whole DVC will ROFR to sell directly at a profit. Heck there is a reason most resale for $50-60 less than direct. They have a limited budget and there is no unlimited demand for direct points especially when competing with other resorts they will try to push (LSL).
 
I just did the googling and we're 2 months away from it being 7 years.
Disney Tourist Blog: Riviera Resort Pricing, Points Chart & Sales

I'm sorry for casually saying "Almost 10" when the precise answer was 7. I didn't know it would cause such a stir.
I meannn it's a pretty big difference to increase the duration that it's been selling in conversation by 50 percent when trying to make a point when it already has been impacted by COVID especially when you're talking about interest but regardless your point is taken.

4 to 5 months RIV beat VGF. VGF needed a fire sale to get it sold out.

The pandemic did indeed impact sales and while restrictions play some role in people’s decision, it has still sold over 5 million points.

Obviously this level of sales for a restricted resort works for DVD as they continue.

ETA: Resale value goes down faster right now than PVB tower…but that only matters if the owner who buys cares.

Just a remember that there is no need to make critical statements about other posters.
Agreed, people seem to forget that the main driver of sales is always price per point, restrictions or not. Anecdotal evidence but I watch youtubers say they bought so and so resort because it saved them like 5 dollars per point over another and were like well I can use these points anywhere at 7 months anyways. I'm willing to bet most people don't study the availability charts or even the point charts typically. The people that make it to this website have at least done enough research to get here which is not most people.
 
The key is that you will really be "stuck" at RIV... but you are not really "stuck" at SSR or OKW. Even in 2042 you will still be able to book 7 properties (VGC, OKW, SSR, CCV, Poly, AKV and BLT) which provides a whole lot more rooms. Theres is value in having options specially for last minute bookings.

Regarding ROFR I've never bought the whole DVC will ROFR to sell directly at a profit. Heck there is a reason most resale for $50-60 less than direct. They have a limited budget and there is no unlimited demand for direct points especially when competing with other resorts they will try to push (LSL).
My point is that being "stuck" at RIV would be comparable to staying at the "better" resorts on that list and much better than being actually stuck at SSR/OKW for a number of trips, which would IMO be quite likely over the life of the contracts. RIV has good dining and easy access to 2 parks. You could always just buy a small RIV contract to add onto any other resorts you own and not actually be stuck at only RIV at all...

You could also kind of see it as a 100% shot for access to a good WDW resort vs 5/7ths of the time at best if you have SSR/OKW but actually only trying for CCV, Poly, VGF, BLT, and AKV if you include that one too.

For Resale, in the long term math CCV and BLT work out to about the same price as SSR with better location, booking advantage, and expirations. If you want SAP I would just go for those. And if you love a location at VGF, AKV, or Poly, those aren't far behind either, so I would just buy the one you love. It's just not worth a risk. If you love SSR/OKW then by all means buy them and stay there, but if someone is only buying them for the 7 month window at the O14 resorts, the tiny bit of savings is not worth the risk IMO. The money is usually better spent elsewhere.
 
4 to 5 months RIV beat VGF. VGF needed a fire sale to get it sold out.

The pandemic did indeed impact sales and while restrictions play some role in people’s decision, it has still sold over 5 million points.

Obviously this level of sales for a restricted resort works for DVD as they continue.

ETA: Resale value goes down faster right now than PVB tower…but that only matters if the owner who buys cares.

Just a remember that there is no need to make critical statements about other posters.
I was specifically addressing the comment and nothing about the individual poster.

However, your statement about me making a critical comment about the post is actually personal.

I understand that you’re very proud to be a Riviera owner, but I feel that sometimes you have a heightened sensitivity to it and that can lead to a more harsh moderation.
 
I think DLR DVC resorts will likely always be worth more than WDW DVC, simply because there are so few. Even if they add a 3rd one with Disneyland Forward....that's still nothing compared to the amount at WDW. At some point, it will really be oversaturated, I think....if it isn't already.
I'm not sure how much expansion there will be with DVC in California. There will be some. But presently, Disney can sell all the rooms on the cash side out most weekends, which I believe is more profitable than DVC. In Florida, where there's near endless land, it's more beneficial to have guests locked into a DVC option. Add in this: Disneyland is not a destination resort. The vast majority of people drive in and home the same day. Those that stay, probably two days max. Hence, the slow sales at VDH.
 
The key is that you will really be "stuck" at RIV... but you are not really "stuck" at SSR or OKW. Even in 2042 you will still be able to book 7 properties (VGC, OKW, SSR, CCV, Poly, AKV and BLT) which provides a whole lot more rooms. Theres is value in having options specially for last minute bookings.

Regarding ROFR I've never bought the whole DVC will ROFR to sell directly at a profit. Heck there is a reason most resale for $50-60 less than direct. They have a limited budget and there is no unlimited demand for direct points especially when competing with other resorts they will try to push (LSL).

Once the 2042's are taken out of the system it'll be really interesting to see how many SAPs are put on the market and how far SSR resale plunges as a result.
 
Have you stayed yet??
Havent stayed at any of the 3 but have visited all. If I was stressed and upset just visiting SSR/OKW via bus on a leisurely non theme park day I cannot imagine staying there and visiting the parks. RIV I have been to multiple times. I havent taken their bus yet but I would think it's very similar to BCV/BWV bus and possibly better than those routes due to a dedicated bus.

Having went to WDW once again I am reaffirming my stance that I absolutely loathe the bus especially ones that have more than one stop. It's not fun for me and sucks the joy right out of me. It starts my day off crappy and ends my day crappy. Who wants to go to WDW and have every day start and end like that? Not me. We wouldnt enjoy renting a car either. So SSR and OKW are a hard pass regardless of how cheap it is. Id much rather stay at a value resort than either of those two.
 
Once the 2042's are taken out of the system it'll be really interesting to see how many SAPs are put on the market and how far SSR resale plunges as a result.
This is mostly going to affect the EPCOT neighborhood, which will increase demand on RIV.

Outside of that, I don't see a huge shift at WDW. After 2042, they remaining non-restricted will be Poly, Grand Flo, BlT, CCV, SSR, OKWe, and AKV. That's still a lot to choose from, in many different areas of the resort.
 
Havent stayed at any of the 3 but have visited all. If I was stressed and upset just visiting SSR/OKW via bus on a leisurely non theme park day I cannot imagine staying there and visiting the parks. RIV I have been to multiple times. I havent taken their bus yet but I would think it's very similar to BCV/BWV bus and possibly better than those routes due to a dedicated bus.

Having went to WDW once again I am reaffirming my stance that I absolutely loathe the bus especially ones that have more than one stop. It's not fun for me and sucks the joy right out of me. It starts my day off crappy and ends my day crappy. Who wants to go to WDW and have every day start and end like that? Not me. We wouldnt enjoy renting a car either. So SSR and OKW are a hard pass regardless of how cheap it is. Id much rather stay at a value resort than either of those two.
Have you considered Lyft? We used it on our last trip… it was cheap and fast.
 
Havent stayed at any of the 3 but have visited all. If I was stressed and upset just visiting SSR/OKW via bus on a leisurely non theme park day I cannot imagine staying there and visiting the parks. RIV I have been to multiple times. I havent taken their bus yet but I would think it's very similar to BCV/BWV bus and possibly better than those routes due to a dedicated bus.

Having went to WDW once again I am reaffirming my stance that I absolutely loathe the bus especially ones that have more than one stop. It's not fun for me and sucks the joy right out of me. It starts my day off crappy and ends my day crappy. Who wants to go to WDW and have every day start and end like that? Not me. We wouldnt enjoy renting a car either. So SSR and OKW are a hard pass regardless of how cheap it is. Id much rather stay at a value resort than either of those two.
Take this for what it's worth, but I find OWK far, far more inviting than SSR--especially if you stay near the hospitality house. It feels more removed. It's where a lot of OG DVC people tend to hang out. It's secluded. I like the pool. Plus there are the boats. To me, SSR always feels like a big condo development next to a big mall--and very, very urban. It's true about the limitation of busses. But the vibe at OWK is very different than that of SSR.
 

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