Cases rising or dropping by you?



Rising in Mass... even in our small towns of Western Ma. Amherst had a big uptick, but even small cities like Greenfield are seeing an increase...I get that some of it is from college kids, but I also think it is due in part to the reopening process and perhaps most to blame, as folks start becoming more lax.
 


No Florida report today. Florida’s Surgeon General is going to review the process for reporting deaths. The reports have a huge lag and have questions of accuracy.

In the 95 deaths that were reported to the state today....


  • 11 were over 30 days old;
  • 16 had at least two months between the time the individuals tested positive and passed away; and
  • 5 had at least three months between the time the individuals tested positive and passed away.
Hopefully they review it and fix whatever problems there are.

https://alachuachronicle.com/florid...ributed-to-covid-19-to-ensure-data-integrity/
 
Florida also announced that by Saturday the state will no longer use PCR tests at state sites. The standard will now be the 15 minute antigen test.

I’m not sold on this change. I think antigen tests are good for rural areas where it’s more challenging to transport and test samples, or at point of care facilities. But, it doesn’t seem right for test locations that are operating fine to use these. Not trying to raise any conspiracy theories, but this will surely lower costs and positivity rates (as rapid antigen tests by nature are less sensitive), something that’ll make FL look better than they are.
 
No Florida report today. Florida’s Surgeon General is going to review the process for reporting deaths. The reports have a huge lag and have questions of accuracy.

In the 95 deaths that were reported to the state today....


  • 11 were over 30 days old;
  • 16 had at least two months between the time the individuals tested positive and passed away; and
  • 5 had at least three months between the time the individuals tested positive and passed away.
Hopefully they review it and fix whatever problems there are.

https://alachuachronicle.com/florid...ributed-to-covid-19-to-ensure-data-integrity/
The lag between the first positive test and actual death in that reporting does not seem at all unusual to me. My friend’s husband was in the hospital for 40+ days. He fortunately survived but had he died it would have been over a month and a half between his first positive test and his death. Another friend of a family member had a similar slightly longer timeline in the hospital. The young Broadway actor who died was in the hospital fighting it for something like 95 days before he finally died. My understanding is that it is not at all unusual for someone to fight this virus for a very long time with ever changing symptoms and complications before they finally succumb to it.

Here in MA our daily new hospitalizations tend to be fairly low - often fewer than 20 in a day. Over the last two weeks we’ve cumulatively had 200 new hospitalizations yet we still have 500 people currently hospitalized with the virus. Lots of people spend quite a long time in the hospital with this before they either beat or or succumb to it.
 
Illinois, rising, big time. Back in the spring shut down, we were running about 3,000 new cases a day. With very tough guidelines, we drove that down to about 400 a day. We were like the envy of the country. But now just under or over 4,000 a day.
 
Florida did in fact release their numbers a little after 5pm (EDT) Nationally Over 60k today. Looks like our low this week will be 50k and who knows what the high will be. Again I like to use the high low. It's much quicker than adding up and it's just as good for eyeballing where we are (which is all I need it for) without too much work.
We're not quite back up to where we were in July (68k low for the worst week 78k high) but at this rate it's not going to be long. Deaths also jumped up again. 24 states are over 1,000 new cases. 1200 on the deaths. Sorry for the bad news.

The lag between the first positive test and actual death in that reporting does not seem at all unusual to me. My friend’s husband was in the hospital for 40+ days. He fortunately survived but had he died it would have been over a month and a half between his first positive test and his death. Another friend of a family member had a similar slightly longer timeline in the hospital. The young Broadway actor who died was in the hospital fighting it for something like 95 days before he finally died. My understanding is that it is not at all unusual for someone to fight this virus for a very long time with ever changing symptoms and complications before they finally succumb to it.
Here in MA our daily new hospitalizations tend to be fairly low - often fewer than 20 in a day. Over the last two weeks we’ve cumulatively had 200 new hospitalizations yet we still have 500 people currently hospitalized with the virus. Lots of people spend quite a long time in the hospital with this before they either beat or or succumb to it.
The reality is Covid can take a long time to resolve one way or another. We had a guy here who was in the hospital 130 days before coming home. But I wouldn't put it past Florida to be doing this to prepare the way to fudge their numbers down some more by inventing some arbitrary and capricious standard designed to lower their death count that if someone dies a certain number of days after diagnosis, it doesn't count.
 
I have noticed a marked increase in cases in those under 18 in my county.

Not the under-18 crowd, but one of my alma maters, Univ Michigan recently accounted for 60% of the positive tests in the county. The student population accounts for only 15% of the county total headcount. I wonder what proportion of the other 40% could be traced to the 60% that are of students (or vice versa).

I don’t follow all the schools across the country, but I can only assume similar (maybe not to this extent) proportions at every college town.
 
Not the under-18 crowd, but one of my alma maters, Univ Michigan recently accounted for 60% of the positive tests in the county.
Wow! Nothing like that in my county. In fact most schools are still remote (and will be for the foreseeable future). A few smaller schools have gotten waivers to open but nothing has been said that links the increase to schools.
 

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