OP, it really varies, and yes, you wait outside. We've usually gone mid-afternoon lately (say, 3pm average), usually on weekends, and usually wait about 30 minutes. That's a lot of "usuallys" because it does really vary...
I agree with PP, we've had variable waits. We always go late afternoon to early evening. I've waited as few as 5 minutes and as much as 30. You can usually tell how long the wait may be based on how many people are lined up already.
It happens; you should see me trying to comprehend things before my morning coffee... let's just say that no one should let me type anywhere until I'm at least 50% caffeinated!
While I cannot comment on the actual wait, higher temperatures make guests seek out cool locations to take a break -- Carthay Lounge is one of the best spots
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