I think with the dollar pricing up a bit higher there is actually downward pressure on the BOC so we are probably looking at an exchange rate that is not pricing in a .25% rate hike in Oct (or at least only partially pricing one in). As such, no rate hike, no drop in dollar. We'll see it start to trend out over the next month. Of course immediate downside to your higher CAD is lower markets since so many Canadian blue-chips have substantial US income - which is suddenly not worth so much, ergo smaller dividends to pay for vacations