Buy VB over Poly - is this crazy

[GrumpyInPhilly]

For the right contract and seeing as I'll be 60 this year and probably would only get 15-20 good years of use, I'd jump in at $30.

 

[jnjhuddle]

ok, ok, I would consider for $35 per point or less but only to ride out the contract til 2042 and if it was a small contract. The whole idea of buying it for 5-10 years sounds good until you further think that you will probably have difficulty reselling it in 10 years for anywhere near what you paid for it.

As far as Poly, I 100% could not afford or justify $165 pp anyway without financing. For me, I would rather spend $165/night and stay at PORS then spend $165 on 1 single point at Poly(plus the annual MF that go with that point along with finance charges). As it is, I had to pick up quite a few extra shifts at work to pay for the OKW points I boughtno regrets though. I bought what I could reasonably afford.

 

[Dean]

I considered both HHI and VB for the cheaper buy in for some extra points. I learned that closing costs are about double in South Carolina, so on a 60 point contract, which may cost under $4000 for initial buy in, you are paying $800 in closing costs. If this were a WDW contract closing on that amount of points would be around $400.

As for VB, even with the cheaper buy in, those annual dues just plain scare me. At $8 point MF, why not just rent someone else's points when you need them for $12 per point and no buy in.

As far as difficulty selling, I'm hoping to never have to do this. I purposely chose 2 SMALL contracts with 2042 end dates (I will be 68 and my husband 74 in 2042) so we can enjoy them until then without being a financial drain or burden on us or our children.

My parents have always viewed timeshares as a really bad investment and have seen a lot of their friends get burned with their timeshares (non DVC), as I have as well. I 100% respect and admire my parents financial choices, so was almost embarrassed to tell them I bought a timeshare. However, I think buying into DVC was the right choice for us given the amount of time we vacation at WDW. VB and HHI would be a mistake because we probably wouldn't use it for either place ever.

There are ways to control closing costs for SC, it can be done far cheaper though likely not through a full service broker and store front closing company. I would agree that one should never buy in expecting to sell later, however one should at least consider the inherent value of what is owned. For VB that's very low AND more difficult to get rid of.

I've stated several times that there was a price point where every resort was a reasonable purchase for the purpose of using points across the system. When SSR was $50 a point, I felt that was around $25 per point at VB. Time has marched on and it's still likely in that price range of $25 to $30 a point where the long term costs and risk are reasonable if one wants to take the chance of no WDW 11 month window. The same can be said for buying non DVC and trying to trade in, there is a price and circumstance where the risks and uncertainties are worth it.

 

[djohn06]

The annual dues for 400 Poly points would be $2,400 so VB would only be $800 more per year, but the real shocker is that you can buy 400 VB points for $15,200 and it would cost $66,000 for 400 poly points.

So, saving $50,800 buying 400 VB points instead of 400 poly points when they are the SAME at 7 months is insane savings.

If you are paying $800 per year in increased dues at VB over Poly you have a LONG way to go before burning $50,800.

So my idea is if you only want to join DVC for 10 years or less, it is way cheaper to buy VB than Poly.

Also, if someone is comfy selling points, they could sell 200 of those 400 points at $5 profit pp. That makes it slighty better than than Poly dues wise.

 

[djohn06]

Buying cheap doesn't help if you have trouble booking at 7 months.

Bill

I have yet to see a season where All WDW resorts were booked at 7 months. That almost never happens with all the SSR rooms. Maybe it gets tough and you have to do a split stay. Also by using the DVC availability tool you can better plan for that apocolyptic situation. In addition, if someone gets 200 points that allows them to book 1 bedrooms instead of studios too. I would say with flexibility, wait lists and 7 month booking you will always find a room at WDW.

 

[Dean]

I have yet to see a season where All WDW resorts were booked at 7 months. That almost never happens with all the SSR rooms. Maybe it gets tough and you have to do a split stay. Also by using the DVC availability tool you can better plan for that apocolyptic situation. In addition, if someone gets 200 points that allows them to book 1 bedrooms instead of studios too. I would say with flexibility, wait lists and 7 month booking you will always find a room at WDW.

The questions really are whether one can book at 11 months out and whether what they want consistently is only going to be available then. Basically that's specialty views or room types at places like BWV, BCV, AKV & BLT. And maybe VGF & VGC in general. For VGF it really only makes sense for a fixed week for most buyers though most buyers can't get a fixed week if they all try. For the rest is simply is removing uncertainty and the question of what is that worth in $$$ to a given potential member. I'm of the opinion that there are essentially no new potential buyers that have enough info to know their preferences to make a good and informed decision up front and truly few members who have owned a limited time who can do so. But you educate yourself and do the best you can and hope you get it right. The problem with say SSR vs VGF or Poly is your gambling with a lot of money for the high end options. It's FAR better to buy SSR and be completely unhappy and sell later or add on than to buy VGF or Poly (or anything retail) and end up using here and there at the 7 month window.

 

[djohn06]

The questions really are whether one can book at 11 months out and whether what they want consistently is only going to be available then. Basically that's specialty views or room types at places like BWV, BCV, AKV & BLT. And maybe VGF & VGC in general. For VGF it really only makes sense for a fixed week for most buyers though most buyers can't get a fixed week if they all try. For the rest is simply is removing uncertainty and the question of what is that worth in $$$ to a given potential member. I'm of the opinion that there are essentially no new potential buyers that have enough info to know their preferences to make a good and informed decision up front and truly few members who have owned a limited time who can do so. But you educate yourself and do the best you can and hope you get it right. The problem with say SSR vs VGF or Poly is your gambling with a lot of money for the high end options. It's FAR better to buy SSR and be completely unhappy and sell later or add on than to buy VGF or Poly (or anything retail) and end up using here and there at the 7 month window.

That's why I bought at all the specialty places. There is always a standard or value room waiting for me at BLT, BWV or AKL.

But, for someone's first resort, I probably would not buy for the specialty rooms. I would buy what I liked, but within reason. I may like VGF, but do I like VGF twice as much as AKV? Probably not . . .

Everyone is different. Many people could care less that they saved $100 on dues per year for a vacation because what matters most is the security of knowing they can stay where they like to stay the most. Personally, my life is getting more busy. I can't always login 7 months ahead of time on the first day to get that Christmas week resort at a resort that I do not own. It just doesn't happen. So, I place a higher priority in getting what I know I like even if it cost me a little more. Buying SSR as a first resort doesn't make sense (IMHO) unless you like SSR. People spend $5 to 6k on average yearly to go to WDW. Saving $100 a year on a timeshare maint fee is immaterial as it is less than 2 percent of someone's annual budget at WDW. Hardly worth planning around this IMHO.

Another reason to buy where you want to stay is if you like to rent points. There is typically a 2 to 3 point increase that you can make by renting points before 7 months. I see people asking for monorail resorts, AKV and epcot resorts the most. SSR is almost always a final choice for many and you probably wont get a premium.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I used to be a big believer (and technically still am) in the opinion to BUY where you want to stay as you are guaranteed accommodations at the resort you like best. For example, it would be a mistake for someone to buy at VB and never want to stay there and only want to stay at Poly or VGF or BLT.

However, in my past 15 or so years of DVC ownership, I rarely make 11 month reservations and I usually pick a resort that has an open spot for the time I want to go. If I really want something like VGF, then I book at the 7 month mark and I usually book a 1 or 2 bedroom. I have been to every DVC resort except Aulani and would be happy to stay at any of them, but of course, like VGF and BLT the best.

The KEY for me is to be flexible and have an open mind. In other words, I am not dissapointed if I get SSR or OKW.

What I am implying with this thread is that it is perfectly acceptable to consider buying a very cheap VB contract instead of an expensive Poly contract and roll the dice at 7 months to try to get into a WDW resort. Now you will probably get SSR or OKW or AKV more often than not, but there is great availability at BW, WL, BLT at different times of the year and once Poly is fully declared, some resorts will open up even more. I think VGF will always be a tough one to get.

Thus, unless you plan on booking the Poly 100% of the time in the 8-11 month window, why spend all that money.

I just sold my 50 point VGF contract for $160pp and I paid $145 for it and the only reason I sold it was I did not use the 11 month window and 50 points for me was too little. If I had a crystal ball, I would have bought a 1 or 2 bedroom fixed week at VGF, but so far, I am able to book a 2 and 3 bedroom VGF in the 7 month window for the times I want to go.

With the low prices of VB and the high prices of everything else, for me, this is the first time I would actually consider buying VB and I never thought I would ever do that as it would take many many years of paying the VB increased annual dues to make up for the premium price of the Poly, BLT, VGF

 

[Dean]

That's why I bought at all the specialty places. There is always a standard or value room waiting for me at BLT, BWV or AKL.

IMO that's reasonable IF one will use those specialty options almost all of the time. But that situation is a very small % of even DVC owners and a far smaller % of potential members. I would not recommend people only buy a bunch of very small contracts in this situation.

But, for someone's first resort, I probably would not buy for the specialty rooms. I would buy what I liked, but within reason. I may like VGF, but do I like VGF twice as much as AKV? Probably not . . .

Exactly my point. There is not a single new buyer who will know enough to make a truly informed decision. The only possible exception would be someone who's rented DVC for years and decides to buy or someone who's grown up with DVC and a second generation buyer.

Everyone is different. Many people could care less that they saved $100 on dues per year for a vacation because what matters most is the security of knowing they can stay where they like to stay the most. Personally, my life is getting more busy. I can't always login 7 months ahead of time on the first day to get that Christmas week resort at a resort that I do not own. It just doesn't happen. So, I place a higher priority in getting what I know I like even if it cost me a little more. Buying SSR as a first resort doesn't make sense (IMHO) unless you like SSR. People spend $5 to 6k on average yearly to go to WDW. Saving $100 a year on a timeshare maint fee is immaterial as it is less than 2 percent of someone's annual budget at WDW. Hardly worth planning around this IMHO.

If the dollars are trivial, I'd agree, but generally they are not. Often the total difference over 10 or 20 yrs is $10k plus when you add in the up front difference, dues difference, number of points to own difference and TVM actually invested.

Another reason to buy where you want to stay is if you like to rent points. There is typically a 2 to 3 point increase that you can make by renting points before 7 months. I see people asking for monorail resorts, AKV and epcot resorts the most. SSR is almost always a final choice for many and you probably wont get a premium.

I wouldn't recommend people buy mostly to rent but sometimes it's a reasonable way to own a full sized contract or that extra resort. I don't think there's enough premium for the rental opportunities to offset the additional costs over time.

 

[djohn06]

IMO that's reasonable IF one will use those specialty options almost all of the time. But that situation is a very small % of even DVC owners and a far smaller % of potential members. I would not recommend people only buy a bunch of very small contracts in this situation.

Exactly my point. There is not a single new buyer who will know enough to make a truly informed decision. The only possible exception would be someone who's rented DVC for years and decides to buy or someone who's grown up with DVC and a second generation buyer.

If the dollars are trivial, I'd agree, but generally they are not. Often the total difference over 10 or 20 yrs is $10k plus when you add in the up front difference, dues difference, number of points to own difference and TVM actually invested.

I wouldn't recommend people buy mostly to rent but sometimes it's a reasonable way to own a full sized contract or that extra resort. I don't think there's enough premium for the rental opportunities to offset the additional costs over time.

I think you are taking a linear approach on maint fees. I look at my entire trip and where I can save. In my situation, I never lose the 10k you stated by being a AKV owner vs. purchasing SSR, Here are a few different reasons:

1- On my typical 6 or 7 day trip, we as a family will cook a dinner, and every breakfast is eaten in the room.
2- With the New DVC availability tool, I have greater sight into a value room. It is simply easier for me to push vaca back a couple weeks to get the value accomodations. My success rate getting value rooms is about 80 percent.
3- I save 20 percent yearly on dues by buying gift cards with a card that gives me 6% back in cash. I also save $1 per gallon up to 35 gallons by buying Disney Gift cards. Combined savings on just main fees alone for me is $900 a year.
4- Every six months, the wife or me will get a new Chase Disney card with $50 or $150 net bonus.
5- Every trip to Disney involves me using frequent flier miles. The sooner I can book, the lower those miles become. If I wait for the 7 month window to begin at SSR to stay at AKV, I find that the miles are always higher than if I booked at 10 or 11 months being an AKV owner.
6- I rent some of my points out. Typically, if a person rents points there is premium paid by the renter to book before 7 months. For every one listing for SSR, there are at least 15 for AKV. I would be losing out on this premium.
7- I can always make a higher price point on a value room, why? Because I am still saving the renter money. For example, If the going rate is $14 pp for AKV Standard room, I can ask $15 for a value room and still save the renter money. A 1 bedroom during dream is 200 points. A renter would pay $2,800 at $14 PP. I can make the argument, that I can save that renter money AND get more money per point because the value room that I have greater access to being an owner only costs 167 points. So now a renter is only paying $2,505.

I think 5, 6 and 7 are really the difference makers and they make a SSR purchase for me more expensive than AKV. There are more factors to consider than just the maint fee. Granted, I know many are not doing what I have stated above, but its just another case of me being able to have my cake and eat it too. I am at the resort I love and not having to buy SSR to save money. I cannot do items 5, 6 and 7 unless I own at AKV (same with BWV). Being an AKV owner vs SSR helps me save more on my overall trip vs. being a SSR owner trying to book at 7 to stay at AKV.

 

[Dean]

I think you are taking a linear approach on maint fees. I look at my entire trip and where I can save. In my situation, I never lose the 10k you stated by being a AKV owner vs. purchasing SSR, Here are a few different reasons:

1- On my typical 6 or 7 day trip, we as a family will cook a dinner, and every breakfast is eaten in the room.
2- With the New DVC availability tool, I have greater sight into a value room. It is simply easier for me to push vaca back a couple weeks to get the value accomodations. My success rate getting value rooms is about 80 percent.
3- I save 20 percent yearly on dues by buying gift cards with a card that gives me 6% back in cash. I also save $1 per gallon up to 35 gallons by buying Disney Gift cards. Combined savings on just main fees alone for me is $900 a year.
4- Every six months, the wife or me will get a new Chase Disney card with $50 or $150 net bonus.
5- Every trip to Disney involves me using frequent flier miles. The sooner I can book, the lower those miles become. If I wait for the 7 month window to begin at SSR to stay at AKV, I find that the miles are always higher than if I booked at 10 or 11 months being an AKV owner.
6- I rent some of my points out. Typically, if a person rents points there is premium paid by the renter to book before 7 months. For every one listing for SSR, there are at least 15 for AKV. I would be losing out on this premium.
7- I can always make a higher price point on a value room, why? Because I am still saving the renter money. For example, If the going rate is $14 pp for AKV Standard room, I can ask $15 for a value room and still save the renter money. A 1 bedroom during dream is 200 points. A renter would pay $2,800 at $14 PP. I can make the argument, that I can save that renter money AND get more money per point because the value room that I have greater access to being an owner only costs 167 points. So now a renter is only paying $2,505.

I think 5, 6 and 7 are really the difference makers and they make a SSR purchase for me more expensive than AKV. There are more factors to consider than just the maint fee. Granted, I know many are not doing what I have stated above, but its just another case of me being able to have my cake and eat it too. I am at the resort I love and not having to buy SSR to save money. I cannot do items 5, 6 and 7 unless I own at AKV (same with BWV). Being an AKV owner vs SSR helps me save more on my overall trip vs. being a SSR owner trying to book at 7 to stay at AKV.

I think it's reasonable to mainly look at the portions directly related to DVC and that are different between resorts or units types in this discussion. There are often special circumstances that might slightly alter the best option for some though this is rare. The dues difference over 20 yrs on dues of 200 points for SSR vs AKV is approaching $7K. You'd have to own less points or rent them consistently to realize savings and then it's only be after you account for the dues difference There currently isn't a buy in difference between the 2 and it may be that AKV prices fall below SSR which could change the discussion somewhat.

1. Cooking really isn't applicable unless one is talking a studio vs villa with a kitchen. I wouldn't include this as part of the difference and truthfully, I wouldn't give it much weight for DVC vs non DVC. For new buyers I would give it zero weight as most that consider it in their equation don't actually use it that way.
2. If you reserve at 11 months out you should get value even more than 80%. If 80% of your stays are value having AKV vs SSR, you'll roughly break even or have a small savings given the current prices compared to using SSR for standard view and rarely getting value using SSR.
3. I don't see that's applicable. You'd save whatever on any dues you would save no matter where you purchase. You only save more by spending more otherwise. It sounds like we're talking 750 or so points, that's a lot more than most have and certainly in the range where if owning that many is reasonable, multiple resorts would be recommended for many.
4. Again, not applicable as you'd have that money for other options including the trips themselves.
5. Again not applicable or minimally applicable in my view. If you own at WDW you can always book further out. Regardless, if you have higher dues, that is a cost of that approach, one that you feel is worth it for your situation, it may not for others and won't be for most.
6. I wouldn't recommend owning to rent but if you occasionally rent and it allows you to take advantage of more home resorts that you actually use to your advantage, that may work for you. I don't think it's a good approach for most and certainly not for those who have considered buying multiple small points packages. It sounds like you're only using DIS to rent, I don't see the same limitations when I rent.
7. As noted, I wouldn't suggest owning to rent even though I find myself in that situation at times by default. Just realize you'll often have to reserve first then rent out much of the time.

I think yours is a very special circumstance and one that's applicable to an extremely small % of owners and almost never to those newer to DVC just like when i exchange in to AKV, OKW or SSR; I pay pennies on the dollar but there is a little work and a fair amount of risk for those savings. Our four 1 BR villas for the week last week at SSR cost us around $1500 total direct and indirect costs.

 

[DebbieB]

Would a $35 or $40 pass ROFR? There are not many VB listings on the ROFR thread, but DVC did take a $50 100 point contract earlier this year.

If I could get it for that price, I think I would go for it. I own at BWV and typically alternate with other resorts and haven't had a problem at 7 months in the spring.

 

[Dean]

Would a $35 or $40 pass ROFR? There are not many VB listings on the ROFR thread, but DVC did take a $50 100 point contract earlier this year.

If I could get it for that price, I think I would go for it. I own at BWV and typically alternate with other resorts and haven't had a problem at 7 months in the spring.

Probably not but why not give it a try if you find one?

 

[DVC Doctor]

I think you are taking a linear approach on maint fees. I look at my entire trip and where I can save. In my situation, I never lose the 10k you stated by being a AKV owner vs. purchasing SSR, Here are a few different reasons:

I LOVE your strategy - but this is RARE as it assumes that a DVC member will only book their own resort for the next 40-50 years.

This thread is mainly about buying the least expensive contract (i.e. VB) vs the most (i.e. Poly) and to determine if SOME people would be better off buying VB. Of course they could also be better off buying SSR, AK, BLT, etc. but that may be better in a different thread.

Of course, you can book any DVC room and then try to switch at 7 months.

 

[djohn06]

I think it's reasonable to mainly look at the portions directly related to DVC and that are different between resorts or units types in this discussion.

Is this a fancy way of saying for purposes of being right, I only want to consider DVC maint fees, without looking at other ways to offset paying those fees which can illustrate that someone owning AKV can save more money than a SSR owner? It kind of reads this way. I don't know how anyone makes a decision to buy into DVC without considering all factors involved in a DVC purchase (Partial rental of points, Airfare prices, tickets, etc . . . ). To have a conversation without discussing these factors is very short sighted.

There are often special circumstances that might slightly alter the best option for some though this is rare. The dues difference over 20 yrs on dues of 200 points for SSR vs AKV is approaching $7K. You'd have to own less points or rent them consistently to realize savings and then it's only be after you account for the dues difference. There currently isn't a buy in difference between the 2 and it may be that AKV prices fall below SSR which could change the discussion somewhat.

Yeah, you can own less AKV points than SSR and save on maint fees. That is one way to look at it. 167 to get a 1 bedroom value room during Dream vs 200 SSR for standard. Maint fee wise, 167 at AKV has always been cheaper than 200 at SSR. It is subject to change, but historically this has been the case. Another option is, if you bought 200 AKV points, for every year you land the value room as a AKV owner, you can transfer 33 points at $12 a point (conservatively) to a member. The additional income would be used to offset AKV dues. I would estimate that an AKV owner doing this strategy would save over $125 year in maint fees, vs the SSR owner. I guess now that 7k savings in 20 years is on the AKV side now?

You agreed on my previous post that I should have a greater than 80% chance of landing value rooms, so I would imagine you would agree that this strategy allows a member to buy into the resort they like (AKV) and save more money vs. SSR owner that tries to land a standard room at AKV.

Also, remember Avatarland is going up in the next few year, and if AK Park has night/ evening hours (as many think it will), AKV will be in much greater demand. I promise that it will not be an easy fetch at 7 months. Someone buying today needs to know this.

I think yours is a very special circumstance and one that's applicable to an extremely small % of owners and almost never to those newer to DVC just like when i exchange in to AKV, OKW or SSR; I pay pennies on the dollar but there is a little work and a fair amount of risk for those savings. Our four 1 BR villas for the week last week at SSR cost us around $1500 total direct and indirect costs.

Most DVC owners own more that one resort and figure out how it works. Maybe they don't rent on their first resort, but many rent points at some time in their DVC lives. In the example I provided above, transferring points to an owner is very simple low risk transaction. Every time I have done a point transfer, within 48 hours of my post the transaction has been completed.

If anyone has a question on how to do it, just send me a PM. I will be happy to explain.

I think I have illustrated a way someone can purchase AKV and save money vs. SSR very clearly. Your strategy is to buy SSR. I'm not going to discount that as a way to save. In fact, I want to buy SSR points myself because they are inexpensive. Mine is to stick with AKV and transfer points to owners which mathematically saves more.

Is my theory too complex for DVC owners, not really. Most won't go into buying DVC knowing this, just like most don't even know you can trade into any resort at 7 months, banking/ borrowing, UY, etc.... But, we figure out. If someone reading this post is making a buying decision, just understand that you do not need to have all the facts now, but set yourself up well in the future in case you decide to utilize one these strategies. There is no silver bullet to saving on maint fees with DVC. I just hear SSR being that silver bullet and that is not true.

 

[djohn06]

I LOVE your strategy - but this is RARE as it assumes that a DVC member will only book their own resort for the next 40-50 years.

This thread is mainly about buying the least expensive contract (i.e. VB) vs the most (i.e. Poly) and to determine if SOME people would be better off buying VB. Of course they could also be better off buying SSR, AK, BLT, etc. but that may be better in a different thread.

Of course, you can book any DVC room and then try to switch at 7 months.

I just limited my conversation to AKV vs. SSR. I apologize for hijacking the thread. You should be a moderator for getting the thread back on track

I honestly thought the VB discussion had been discontinued as it was proven VB is not sustainable in the long-term for any owner looking to stay at WDW.

 

[Dean]

Is this a fancy way of saying for purposes of being right, I only want to consider DVC maint fees, without looking at other ways to offset paying those fees which can illustrate that someone owning AKV can save more money than a SSR owner? It kind of reads this way. I don't know how anyone makes a decision to buy into DVC without considering all factors involved in a DVC purchase (Partial rental of points, Airfare prices, tickets, etc . . . ). To have a conversation without discussing these factors is very short sighted.

It may play into purchasing but not to much if at all to which resort, esp owning AKV vs SSR.

Yeah, you can own less AKV points than SSR and save on maint fees. That is one way to look at it. 167 to get a 1 bedroom value room during Dream vs 200 SSR for standard. Maint fee wise, 167 at AKV has always been cheaper than 200 at SSR. It is subject to change, but historically this has been the case. Another option is, if you bought 200 AKV points, for every year you land the value room as a AKV owner, you can transfer 33 points at $12 a point (conservatively) to a member. The additional income would be used to offset AKV dues. I would estimate that an AKV owner doing this strategy would save over $125 year in maint fees, vs the SSR owner. I guess now that 7k savings in 20 years is on the AKV side now?

Actually the current dues on 167 AKV points are more than 200 SSR points but only by a marginal amount of $18 total. The big difference, IMO, is that you own less points. It's essentially a break even in that exact scenario if you actually buy the lower points AND use them exclusively for AKV value.

You agreed on my previous post that I should have a greater than 80% chance of landing value rooms, so I would imagine you would agree that this strategy allows a member to buy into the resort they like (AKV) and save more money vs. SSR owner that tries to land a standard room at AKV.

Also, remember Avatarland is going up in the next few year, and if AK Park has night/ evening hours (as many think it will), AKV will be in much greater demand. I promise that it will not be an easy fetch at 7 months. Someone buying today needs to know this.

You should do better than 80% at 11 months out but many will not be that proactive. It isn't saving but more breaking even with less points and to me, inferior rooms in that they're smaller and don't have the third bath but if those don't affect you that may not be important. And that assumes you never get value with SSR points I don't think AKV park additions will have any significant effect on the resort demand but we'll see.

I think I have illustrated a way someone can purchase AKV and save money vs. SSR very clearly.

As noted it's not a savings but break even in the SSR for standard vs value with less points but possibly there are other benefits such as the 3 BR or concierge that might interest you or someone else and make the risks and increased costs worth it.

Is my theory too complex for DVC owners, not really. Most won't go into buying DVC knowing this, just like most don't even know you can trade into any resort at 7 months, banking/ borrowing, UY, etc.... But, we figure out. If someone reading this post is making a buying decision, just understand that you do not need to have all the facts now, but set yourself up well in the future in case you decide to utilize one these strategies. There is no silver bullet to saving on maint fees with DVC. I just hear SSR being that silver bullet and that is not true.

I don't think the theory is too complex but the implementation is far more effort and consideration than most want want. SSR is clearly the cheapest to own overall, whether the limitations are worth it, or the additional costs for other options worth it for a given person depends. As noted, most don't have this knowledge or experience going in. I'm of the opinion that it is far better to underbuy than overbuy both in terms of resort and number of points as long as one doesn't go too low. That's one of the issues with VB, if you need to sell later for some reason, it's harder to sell.

I'd also point out that many of the strategies and assumptions that both you and I are making could change quickly. They might further limit renting or they might enforce the restriction on transfers for money. I personally think that there is increased long term risk of dues for certain resorts over others. I also feel there are more risk to future MF for AKV, VGF, Poly and OKW 2057 than the rest for WDW as well as VB & HH have risk of increases above the norm.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Here is one of the cheapest VB I saw online and it has been listed since May

462 points @ $42pp with 19 points for 2016 and 462 for 2017, they can close 1/24/16

This is something that would be interesting if someone can buy it for around $32pp as long as they pay 2016 dues

What do you think?

 

[Dean]

Here is one of the cheapest VB I saw online and it has been listed since May

462 points @ $42pp with 19 points for 2016 and 462 for 2017, they can close 1/24/16

This is something that would be interesting if someone can buy it for around $32pp as long as they pay 2016 dues

What do you think?

In that exact scenario and assuming the same formula I use for comparing resale to retail, you'd come out ahead by about $10K on 462 points comparing to SSR if you paid the extra VB dues OOP.

Here are the parameters I used

• $32 vs $80 purchase
• 4.5% earnings compounded and using none of the investment to pay the extra dues (1/2 in MM at 1% and half in long term investments at 8% all after taxes).
• 4% inflation on both dues

If you used the savings and earnings to pay the extra dues only, paying OOP for the same as SSR would be) you'd run out of the surplus with about 8 years to go and pay an additional $62K for that last 8 yrs or so of dues and thus an extra $62K for VB over SSR with those assumptions. And you'd have more risk and no 11 month priority. It's difficult to imagine the spread would become great enough to make VB reasonable unless it was a subsidized contract AND the price difference was nearly that great. Now if one wants to stay at VB routinely, it might be worth it to use partly at VB and partly at WDW. The problem on this large a package is that one would still likely be far better off buying some points at VB and some at WDW than going for an albatross of that size.

 

[DVC Doctor]

There are SOME people that actually like VB and like the 11 month window and some people need lots of points for that cool beach cabana.

Again, I like SSR the best (like many people here) and over the LONG term (30+ years) it makes more sense to buy SSR.

However, I think there is a compelling argument to buy VB over Poly for families that want to join DVC for as cheap as possible, don't care where they stay at the 7 month window, and will probably sell the contract in less than 15 years. Sure, that is a lot of IF's, but the price of some VB contracts are going to sell in the $30-$40 range and that is a pretty good deal.

Think about it this way.

Pay $40pp (total fee including all fees and closing costs) for VB that is loaded (has banked and current points) and then rent the banked and current and borrowed points from next year for $13pp and your NET cost is only $7pp for a VB contract. Of course you need to pay dues for next year so the NET cost is really $7 + $8 = $15

If you continue to rent your VB points for $13 for three more years (assuming dues is $8) then in 2020, you will effectively OWN VB for $0 (i.e. is is now considered FREE) as those three years you made your $15 purchase back.

Then you own VB for FREE and only pay annual dues for the life of the contract (an additional 22 years) and you can sell at any time during these 22 years and 100% of that money is pure profit.