Bush Opens Four-Point Lead

[we3luvdisney]

Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.

"The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

Both candidates headed to the swing state of Nevada in upbeat mood on Thursday after their final debate and renewed their battle during separate appearances in Las Vegas over who was best suited to lead the middle class to prosperity.

The focus of the race now turns to less than a dozen crucial battleground states, with Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa -- where Bush and Kerry are running neck and neck -- all certain to see plenty of the candidates down the stretch.

The new tracking poll found Bush pulling into a tie with Kerry among Catholics and women voters, and moving slightly ahead with young voters. Kerry still holds a solid lead among seniors.

The poll of 1,220 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 percent of likely voters.

 

[Funkyzeit mit Bruno]

Zogby is accurate. This gives me hope. We need at least 4 points. There are a lot of angry anti-war folks out there who would vote for a pile of dirt in order to defeat Bush. Many, these people aren't counted as likely voters. There are also a lot of angry democrats in Florida who harbor a grudge over the 2000 election. Anger is a powerful motivator. We Bush supporters still have a lot to worry about.

 

[Microcell]

I too think it is a time for guarded optimism! This is the longest three weeks ever!

 

[Galahad]

Originally posted by Funkyzeit mit Bruno
Zogby is accurate. This gives me hope. We need at least 4 points. There are a lot of angry anti-war folks out there who would vote for a pile of dirt in order to defeat Bush. Many, these people aren't counted as likely voters. There are also a lot of angry democrats in Florida who harbor a grudge over the 2000 election. Anger is a powerful motivator. We Bush supporters still have a lot to worry about.

I'd be careful about declarations and "trusting" a particular polster at this stage. It will surely swing the other way and back again in various polls between now and then. Also, Zogby no longer has a corner on those ideas that made his methodology better than the others. He got most of the senate races in 2002 wrong, for example.

 

[missypie]

Originally posted by Funkyzeit mit Bruno
There are a lot of angry anti-war folks out there who would vote for a pile of dirt in order to defeat Bush.

That's how I feel...I've never quite described it that way, but I do think that just about anyone would be less dangerous than Cheney/Ashcroft/Rumsfeld/Bush.

 

[Jimbo]

My wife just sent me this:

Apparently for the last 18 elections (since the 30's), every time - if the Washington Redskins lose the Sunday before the election, the incumbent president loses the election.

The Redskins play the Packers October 31st.

Bush is in.

 

[Galahad]

Originally posted by Jimbo
My wife just sent me this: Bush is in.

 

[tidoublegger]

Originally posted by Jimbo
My wife just sent me this: Bush is in.

Go Packers!

 

[julia & nicks mom]

Originally posted by Funkyzeit mit Bruno
There are a lot of angry anti-war folks out there who would vote for a pile of dirt in order to defeat Bush.

There is a new poll out of acitve military families

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041015/ap_on_el_pr/military_poll_2

Bush, who served in the Texas Air National Guard, was more trusted by 69 percent while 24 percent said they trusted Kerry more, according to the National Annenberg Election Survey released Friday

It also says that 64% believe America is on the right rack -

Seems to me the men and women on the front line and their families should have a pretty good idea of how things are going in Iraq!