Box Office Discussion

[rteetz]

Seriously though, why aren't they promoting Moana? We've barely seen any footage from that movie and there's very little to no hype for it outside of the Disney fandom. You'd think that after the huge success WDAS has had with their recent releases they'd try to keep their momentum going.

My guess is they think since it's a princess movie that it will promote itself. If I recall before frozen came out you had that Olaf and Sven teaser playing in the theaters which left huge questions as to what the movie was about exactly. At least the Moana trailers kind of show what's going to happen.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

My guess is they think since it's a princess movie that it will promote itself. If I recall before frozen came out you had that Olaf and Sven teaser playing in the theaters which left huge questions as to what the movie was about exactly. At least the Moana trailers kind of show what's going to happen.

I think there's a deeper issue here...but we'll have to wait and see...

I hope moana does really well...but I'm skeptical

 

[Budshark]

Finding Dory will be released on Blu-Ray (and in 3D) on Nov. 15th.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

What's the running total now?

$931? Pretty good.

I noticed Pete's dragon had a pretty solid weekend last week...if it doesn't get pushed out of theaters it will end up being respectable

 

[Budshark]

What's the running total now?

$931? Pretty good.

I noticed Pete's dragon had a pretty solid weekend last week...if it doesn't get pushed out of theaters it will end up being respectable

$945 for Dory

Petes foreign take is dismal. Ain't no recovery now except to become a cult classic as it has high ratings from audience.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

$945 for Dory

Petes foreign take is dismal. Ain't no recovery now except to become a cult classic as it has high ratings from audience.

I'll take it...better than John Carter

 

[saskdw]

I'll take it...better than John Carter

I enjoyed John Carter. Anxiously awaiting the sequel.

 

[dlavender]

I enjoyed John Carter. Anxiously awaiting the sequel.

That and Lone Ranger 2.

 

[rteetz]

$950 for Dory with Germany and Italy still in the docket.

 

[Lesverts]

I don't want to go back and find the quota. But to the person that said it would take 200 million for Pete's Dragon to break even. That is just crazy talk. 200 million would be just over 3x production budget. Generally rule of thumb is 2x. Saying it would take 200 million is like say The Amazing-Spider Man just barely broke even. And Sony never posted a write-down on that one.

Disney is currently looking at probably a 30 to 40 million million dollar write-down on Pete's. Not a complete disaster given some of the huge misfires Disney has had lately.

 

[Budshark]

I don't want to go back and find the quota. But to the person that said it would take 200 million for Pete's Dragon to break even. That is just crazy talk. 200 million would be just over 3x production budget. Generally rule of thumb is 2x. Saying it would take 200 million is like say The Amazing-Spider Man just barely broke even. And Sony never posted a write-down on that one.

Disney is currently looking at probably a 30 to 40 million million dollar write-down on Pete's. Not a complete disaster given some of the huge misfires Disney has had lately.

That was me.

Pete's estimated budget $65 Million, we'll use the 2x number you have above.

Lets say on a slow burner like this the splits even out to 80/20. Likely a little higher since this wasn't a big draw - and foreign splits are generally lower. But... we'll be conservative and call it 80/20.

$200 million - * 80% = $160 Million to the studio. $65*2 = $130 Million in costs. $30 Million positive is safe to assume you truly covered all costs and made some money - which is why I used $200.

At this point, it ain't gonna make it ($120-$130 is looking like a stretch now), and even then they don't make movies to be loss leaders unless they have a huge marketing benefit. And Pete's definitely is not a "toy bonanza" as a Pixar or Star Wars movie is.

In terms of Studios not taking write downs on blockbusters... thank the accountants. They inflate production costs on the flops to bury the write down. Better "Return of the Dragon Mummy Part 87" take a write down than a blockbuster franchise. Part of the reason no one really knows what full movie production numbers are.

 

[Britkurd]

My guess is they think since it's a princess movie that it will promote itself. If I recall before frozen came out you had that Olaf and Sven teaser playing in the theaters which left huge questions as to what the movie was about exactly. At least the Moana trailers kind of show what's going to happen.

I don't really see this being a princess movie. It seems more akin to lilo and stitch to me. I don't think it will be on a par with any of the princess movies and won't make as much at box office as it will appeal to a slightly different demographic

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

I think you're being way more "optimistic" than realistic on your estimates...

Disneys recent hits are underperforming internationally and overperforming domestically...it's an interesting trend I'm sure they are watching/concerned about.

For a studio with such mega hits...things are far from ideal for them. Can't sell Star Wars very well overseas...perhaps the sequel machine is getting too much use...and they have had some really high profile bombs too...

No way dory crosses $950...just don't see it. The overseas numbers have not been impressive at all...just like the force awakens (that's based on comparisons to recent blockbusters...which do much better than 55/45 US to International splits)

...still a smashing success...but what Igers cheap suits are probably saying?

"Why don't the Chinese love it? That's where our future is!!!!!"

...I'm on partially joking...a very small part - sadly.

Obviously, few believed him anyways, but just to point out that Dory is now at 969 million, and this is the latest from experts about where it will end...

Elsewhere, Finding Dory's domestic run may be coming to an end, but it isn't done internationally. This weekend the forgetful fish brought in an estimated $5.3 million internationally as its worldwide cume now stands at $969.8 million. Dory is now the third highest grossing worldwide release of 2016 having just passed The Jungle Book ($965m) and the sixth highest grossing animated movie of all-time worldwide, having passed The Lion King ($968.5m) and only $1 million behind Despicable Me 2. Certain to help matters will be next weekend's release in Germany and Austria and a continued expansion in Switzerland as a worldwide cume over one billion looks almost inevitable at this point.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Obviously, few believed him anyways, but just to point out that Dory is now at 969 million, and this is the latest from experts about where it will end...

Elsewhere, Finding Dory's domestic run may be coming to an end, but it isn't done internationally. This weekend the forgetful fish brought in an estimated $5.3 million internationally as its worldwide cume now stands at $969.8 million. Dory is now the third highest grossing worldwide release of 2016 having just passed The Jungle Book ($965m) and the sixth highest grossing animated movie of all-time worldwide, having passed The Lion King ($968.5m) and only $1 million behind Despicable Me 2. Certain to help matters will be next weekend's release in Germany and Austria and a continued expansion in Switzerland as a worldwide cume over one billion looks almost inevitable at this point.

I'm very surprised it made what it did internationally...a very good effort all things considered

 

[Lee Matthews]

I enjoyed John Carter. Anxiously awaiting the sequel.

I think Disney quickly sold on the rights after the movie flopped

 

[Liljo22]

Dory passed $1 billion this weekend. Disney now has 3 over that mark and the four top earners of the year with JB at $966mil.