Booking at 7 months

[breakin2]

I'm at a crossroads with the wife. I like Wilderness Lodge. She likes BLT. We can get 150 points at WL for the approximate price of 100 BLT points. I see that BLT has a decent amount of units compared to WL. Would we have a decent chance booking at BLT at 7 months? That could help me sway her. Thanks.

 

[tjkraz]

I'm at a crossroads with the wife. I like Wilderness Lodge. She likes BLT. We can get 150 points at WL for the approximate price of 100 BLT points. I see that BLT has a decent amount of units compared to WL. Would we have a decent chance booking at BLT at 7 months? That could help me sway her. Thanks.

Most of the year, yes BLT will be available at 7 months. You can't count on getting the Magic Kingdom view rooms or Standard View. And during some periods it will be a tough get at 7 mos. These days the entire period from October through New Year's has had pretty high demand among members.

Just be aware that VWL contract expire in the year 2042, only giving you about 30 years of ownership. BLT contracts run into 2060--18 additional years. That's a big part of the price disparity.

 

[ammo]

... Just be aware that VWL contract expire in the year 2042, only giving you about 30 years of ownership. BLT contracts run into 2060--18 additional years. That's a big part of the price disparity.

Another big plus for the VWL contracts. People right now are paying a significant upfront premium for the right to (actually "obligation to") pay inflated maintenance fees during years 2043 through 2060. That is a long, long time away. Much will happen, planned and unexpected, good and bad, to all of us between now and then.

The entire DVC program is not quite 20 years old, so paying a significant premium today for the contractual obligation to pay constantly-growing dues 32+ years into the future does not necessarily add up from a strictly financial standpoint.

As a DVC owner, I understand fully that this is more than a financial decision. But a significant premium on those distant BLT years, which will require future annual MF payments, is a financial argument in favor of something else. BLT also has the aura of newness, which may be adding something to the current prices.

 

[bnk1120]

We were in a similar poistion when we bought- he wanted VWL, I wanted BWV. We bought VWL.

I am glad now because we have a contract with more points. 100 points at BLT doesn't go super far. I would take the VWL contract and get on a wait list when/if you can't get BLT when you want it.

 

[amypetecar]

BLT can be available at 7 months, but may not always be available for your entire trip.

2 quick examples:
-November 2011, BLT lake view available 5 out of 7 nights needed, but never came through on a wait list for thanksgiving and the day after. we stayed at OKW instead.

- I booked a blt MK view studio at around the 9 or 10 month mark over MLK weekend. I decided 3 weeks ago to add on the thursday night before and a MK view studio was available (only 4 months out).

Personally, i bought at BLT b/c i figured if I was going to lay out the cash for dvc, I wanted a room on the monorail anytime i wanted (provided i planned in advance).... BUT.... if occasional visits to BLT are enough, I say go for VWL. It's certainly not impossible to get BLT...... plus once the GF villas open, I bet demand for BLT will be even less.

 

[DisDad07]

You might what to see how far 100 pts at BLT will get you. When do you travel and what type of room do you need? What can you get at 7 months out at BLT is hard to say. Are you looking at resale or direct? Resale you can get more points for the buck.
Good luck trying to figure what you want.

 

[breakin2]

Thanks for the info! You guys are great.

 

[tjkraz]

Another big plus for the VWL contracts. People right now are paying a significant upfront premium for the right to (actually "obligation to") pay inflated maintenance fees during years 2043 through 2060. That is a long, long time away. Much will happen, planned and unexpected, good and bad, to all of us between now and then.

The entire DVC program is not quite 20 years old, so paying a significant premium today for the contractual obligation to pay constantly-growing dues 32+ years into the future does not necessarily add up from a strictly financial standpoint.

As a DVC owner, I understand fully that this is more than a financial decision. But a significant premium on those distant BLT years, which will require future annual MF payments, is a financial argument in favor of something else. BLT also has the aura of newness, which may be adding something to the current prices.

Depends upon one's age to a great extent but if one has an irrational fear of what maintenance fees might be in 30-40 years, a timeshare is probably not the best choice in the first place. Dues are tied to resort operating costs. The primary reason that dues increase is because things simply cost more. Staff wages go up, benefits go up, insurance premiums go up. It's the way of the world.

There's a reason that the average new car cost $7,000 in 1980, and the average house was $68K. Of course, the average wage was $19,000 back then, too.

I agree that it doesn't make sense to pay a large premium for additional years on the back end. However, those years do hold some value and it isn't hard to run some numbers. Be sure to take into account the fact that VWL dues are $5.34 per point today while BLT is only $3.89 per point. Even over 30 years, that disparity will add up quickly.

 

[ammo]

Depends upon one's age to a great extent but if one has an irrational fear of what maintenance fees might be in 30-40 years, a timeshare is probably not the best choice in the first place. Dues are tied to resort operating costs. The primary reason that dues increase is because things simply cost more. Staff wages go up, benefits go up, insurance premiums go up. It's the way of the world.

There's a reason that the average new car cost $7,000 in 1980, and the average house was $68K. Of course, the average wage was $19,000 back then, too.

I agree that it doesn't make sense to pay a large premium for additional years on the back end. However, those years do hold some value and it isn't hard to run some numbers. Be sure to take into account the fact that VWL dues are $5.34 per point today while BLT is only $3.89 per point. Even over 30 years, that disparity will add up quickly.

Planning for the distant future and tracking trends in MFs is not an "irrational fear." It is financial planning. It is interesting that you mention increasing wages vs. prices in the economy. Because over the past decade, MFs have increased at a much faster rate than the average wage in the US. I expect the same to be true for the next decade or more.

In our experience, the best choice regarding DVC is to buy where you want to stay unless you are fine with not being able to book your preferred resort at 7 months. That is one of the nonfinancial issues that factors into the decision.

 

[tjkraz]

Planning for the distant future and tracking trends in MFs is not an "irrational fear." It is financial planning. It is interesting that you mention increasing wages vs. prices in the economy. Because over the past decade, MFs have increased at a much faster rate than the average wage in the US.

Depends upon what resort you are looking at. Destinations like HHI and VB have had extraordinarily high increases, often due to rising insurance premiums and other similar factors.

But from 1999 to 2009, wages rose by 34%. Over the same time period, dues at BWV rose only 30% while VWL rose by 39%. From '04 to '09 wages were up 14% and SSR dues were up...14%.

Not exactly a "much faster rate" in most situations.

And if wages are stagnant in the coming years as you suspect, our dues will similarly benefit. Again dues are based upon resort operating costs so if Disney employees are not getting raises, that component of our dues will not increase.

That said, I don't see the logic in supporting a DVC purchase for 30 years but condemning it for 50 years. Completely arbitrary figures. If one isn't comfortable with a 50 year commitment on the basis of possible dues increases, a 30 year commitment should be darn near as daunting.

Wholeheartedly agree that all factors should be considered, which is why the lower dues at BLT deserve added attention. A difference of $1.45 per point in year 1 will grow dramatically over the next 3+ decades. It's not as simple as concluding that it's foolish to spend money for the 18 additional years until the projected dues savings are taken into account.

11 month booking rights are important but since OP has split loyalties between VWL and BLT, there is value in either purchase.

 

[ammo]

But from 1999 to 2009, wages rose by 34%. Over the same time period, dues at BWV rose only 30% while VWL rose by 39%. From '04 to '09 wages were up 14% and SSR dues were up...14%.

Not exactly a "much faster rate" in most situations.

Where are you getting those numbers? It sounds like a boom decade for US workers! Are they Disney wages, which would obviously drive MFs but would be irrelevant to planning the affordability of a long-term purchase (unless you work for Disney, of course)?

The Census Bureau numbers are much closer to 16% income growth between 2000 and 2010. The Top 5% of households are only up 14% during the decade (from $252,400 to $287,686).

 

[tjkraz]

Where are you getting those numbers? It sounds like a boom decade for US workers!

Until late 2008, it was.

SSA, Bureau of Labor Statistics....every stat that I've seen shows 3-4% annual growth in compensation for the first part of the 21st century, down to 1-2% growth post-recession.