BLT $140 - no more incentives

[jcf]

for anyone as of July 2....

 

[TisBit]

for anyone as of July 2....

we'll see how long the no incentives last...that is usually how it starts. They may continue no incentives at BLT to keep the sales slow until they get GFV ready for sales.

 

[jcf]

While it will be interesting to see if prices trend up on resale market after July...

 

[twinklebug]

Disney historically does this. They announce a raise in price w/no incentives - push those who are weighing their options into buying for fear of loosing out. Then they offer the discounts and other incentives again.

I don't think Disney wants any sales to slow down. I think they'd be perfectly happy with everything being sold out. Remember, right now they still have units available at SSR, AKV, BLT and Aulani. If they did come close to selling out they'd simply increase their ROFRs.

 

[tjkraz]

Incentives go away when a resort is "sold out."

BLT is around 90% gone now. They only sell to 98% per the POS. A few rooms currently serve as a small-scale sales center, which lowers the available inventory another couple points to roughly 96% of the total. Several Use Years will soon start to run short.

They may still offer scattered discounts like on Disney Cruise Line trips but don't be surprised if the lack of incentives sticks.

This isn't an SSR situation where sales will drag on for years and years. The resort is within a few months of being completely gone (other than future ROFR + foreclosures) so it would come as no surprise to see DVC maximize the revenue on those last few points.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

While it will be interesting to see if prices trend up on resale market after July...

This will not happen. The rise in resale prices ended around 2008. The only time I observed an uptick in resales prices was right before the March 2011 changes to 'resale" contracts. They've all but dropped since, and I don't forsee any changes, regardless of the resort.

 

[tjkraz]

This will not happen. The rise in resale prices ended around 2008. The only time I observed an uptick in resales prices was right before the March 2011 changes to 'resale" contracts. They've all but dropped since, and I don't forsee any changes, regardless of the resort.

It wouldn't surprise me to see resale prices creep up a bit. Nothing dramatic but some increase.

DVC sells 20-30 BLT contracts per day. It's regarded as a great location and is certainly a visible landmark at WDW. Even when BLT is "sold out", many new buyers just discovering DVC will still have an interest in owning there. Some will fall for the "it doesn't really matter where you own" routine and buy elsewhere, but others will pursue BLT and discover the resale market.

TTS only has 20-some contracts available now. Wouldn't take much for those to be gobbled up.

If nothing else, I'd expect to see fewer sellers asking for $90-92 per point, and more asking (and getting) $95-100.

Would also make sense for DVC to remain active in ROFR on BLT. Right now, DVC is using ROFR on BCV points in the $80 neighborhood and re-selling for $115. That's a $35 spread. Once the supply of BLT is exhausted, would they ROFR anything under $100 and re-sell at $140? Seems possible...

 

[Brian Noble]

Once the supply of BLT is exhausted, would they ROFR anything under $100 and re-sell at $140? Seems possible...

I'm going to guess that the spread will need to be higher than that to ROFR at a rate beyond ready buyers in the pipeline. An industry rule of thumb is that marketing expenses are between 1/4 and 1/2 of the total cost of development, and once you get past the list of ready buyers, you start incurring those marketing costs again.

 

[tjkraz]

I'm going to guess that the spread will need to be higher than that to ROFR at a rate beyond ready buyers in the pipeline. An industry rule of thumb is that marketing expenses are between 1/4 and 1/2 of the total cost of development, and once you get past the list of ready buyers, you start incurring those marketing costs again.

I don't disagree, Brian. But it seems realistic for BLT to follow a similar pattern to BCV, with member add-on demand justifying ongoing ROFR. <$100 per point may be a bit aggressive but I could see them taking anything under $95 per point. The ROFR thread has one example of a fully-loaded contract being ROFRed at $96. Not exactly conclusive evidence but it does suggest a target figure.

None of this would happen overnight, of course. DVC does still have several hundred thousand points left. But over time, it wouldn't surprise me to see buyers--particularly existing owners--willing to add-on at $140 per.

 

[cheezNE1]

for anyone as of July 2....

oh, its 7/2 .. i thought it was 6/18. So i still have a few weeks to think about it.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Even SSR had incentives go away from the time it officially "sold out" until the time that they declared the THV's would become a part of the resort.

 

[BeesKnees]

None of this would happen overnight, of course. DVC does still have several hundred thousand points left. But over time, it wouldn't surprise me to see buyers--particularly existing owners--willing to add-on at $140 per.

Not me. In fact, as much as I love my DVC membership if I had to buy it today instead of 10 years ago I am not sure I would make the same decision at these prices. @140 per point I would have a $42,000 membership. I would be forced to buy less and then some of the perks like taking family and friends with me would have never been realized.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

No more points for me. It will be fun to see just how high they go with the new resorts!

 

[tjkraz]

Not me. In fact, as much as I love my DVC membership if I had to buy it today instead of 10 years ago I am not sure I would make the same decision at these prices. @140 per point I would have a $42,000 membership. I would be forced to buy less and then some of the perks like taking family and friends with me would have never been realized.

I feel the same way about paying $115 per point for BCV with 18 fewer years of ownership than BLT!!!! But people keep doing it...

They wouldn't be selling 100,000 points per month at those prices with the sales focus shifted elsewhere. But a couple thousand points worth of add-ons each month would be enough to justify continued ROFR.

If DVC can afford to ROFR BCV at $80 and re-sell for $115, seems like they can pick a price point between $90-100 for BLT and re-sell for $140.

 

[ssawka]

Not me. In fact, as much as I love my DVC membership if I had to buy it today instead of 10 years ago I am not sure I would make the same decision at these prices. @140 per point I would have a $42,000 membership. I would be forced to buy less and then some of the perks like taking family and friends with me would have never been realized.

I've said it before, but I am so happy we bought when we did (2009)! There is no way in heck I would pay $140 a point. @275 points, that would be almost $40,000!

 

[Chef Louis]

I've said it before, but I am so happy we bought when we did (2009)! There is no way in heck I would pay $140 a point. @275 points, that would be almost $40,000!

Couldn't agree more bought in at $91, best decision I have made in a long time.

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't disagree, Brian. But it seems realistic for BLT to follow a similar pattern to BCV, with member add-on demand justifying ongoing ROFR. <$100 per point may be a bit aggressive but I could see them taking anything under $95 per point. The ROFR thread has one example of a fully-loaded contract being ROFRed at $96. Not exactly conclusive evidence but it does suggest a target figure.

None of this would happen overnight, of course. DVC does still have several hundred thousand points left. But over time, it wouldn't surprise me to see buyers--particularly existing owners--willing to add-on at $140 per.

But, one big difference between BCV and BLT is size. If you assume that owners consider selling at the same rate, the size of BLT's resale market is going to be MUCH bigger. Unless the "natural demand" (i.e. with no marketing support) for internal sales/add-ons is also much bigger, then the spread will widen farther and faster than it did with BCV.

Also, ROFR is not a "floor" unless the natural demand supports it. If 100 contracts are sold at $96 loaded, but there are only 5 waiting/willing buyers, only five will be ROFR'd (maybe a few extra will too). That allows the free market to more accurately determine demand absent Disney's marketing involvement, and offers less price support. In other words, ROFR only does what the Guides suggest is its purpose if Disney is willing to ROFR everything under $X. And, unless development of new resorts slows down, I think they are voting with their capital that they'd rather build new shiny resorts than re-market "old" ones.

 

[disneychic]

Interesting

 

[ssawka]

Couldn't agree more bought in at $91, best decision I have made in a long time.

We bought @ $92.

 

[dbs1228]

I don't disagree, Brian. But it seems realistic for BLT to follow a similar pattern to BCV, with member add-on demand justifying ongoing ROFR. <$100 per point may be a bit aggressive but I could see them taking anything under $95 per point. The ROFR thread has one example of a fully-loaded contract being ROFRed at $96. Not exactly conclusive evidence but it does suggest a target figure.

None of this would happen overnight, of course. DVC does still have several hundred thousand points left. But over time, it wouldn't surprise me to see buyers--particularly existing owners--willing to add-on at $140 per.

That contract that was ROFR was submitted in DEC 2009, ROFR 1/8/2010 DVC was taking contracts back then, not soon after that did they ROFR much other then BCV. BLT passed ROFR at 66.25 recently and was a loaded contract. DVC is not ROFR much these days we shall see if that changes.