Best time to buy into a resort

[Jasminerk13]

I just saw on the dvc page that the Grand Californian is now in sell-out phase.
It got me wondering, when is the best time to buy into a new resort to get the best deals?
I would assume not at the very beginning as I think lots of people would be clammering to get into the new resort.

But thought I'd ask the pros out there!

 

[CarolMN]

Respectfully, you'd need a crystal ball to know when Disney was going to offer the best deal for a particular resort. All sorts of things go into Disney's decisions, including the state of the economy.

In my experience, the very best deals come via the resale market. But you have to look for them and do the math for each one. Not all resale contracts will be a good deal.

Good luck with your research.

 

[ssawka]

In my experience, the very best deals come via the resale market. But you have to look for them and do the math for each one. Not all resale contracts will be a good deal.

This has not been true for BLT, at least not yet. Resales are sill over $100/point whereas last spring (when we bought) you could get a price in the low 90's.

 

[Alexander]

Although the process to purchase through Disney is so easy, (too easy actually) I wouldn't buy from them again. We have two contracts that we did purchase through DVC but we paid no more than $80/point. I would not spend the more than $100/point they are looking for now, there just aren't good enough incentives to justify that price. Resale truly is the best way to go. You don't sacrifice anything. Once you close, you're a member regardless of how you got there.

 

[bookwormde]

Resale, after the resort is sold out and there are lots of resale contraacts on the market for the resort you want.

bookwormde

 

[NewDCLGuy]

A year or two before the lease runs out I expect we'll see some great deals!

There's always going to be a better deal down the road. But the resort will be that much older and you won't have gotten to enjoy it in the meantime. It doesn't make sense to wait a year to save $5/point.

If you really want the cruise incentive, it might make sense to wait if they aren't currently offering one. Otherwise, I'd just buy whenever you are ready.

 

[bookwormde]

With settlement cost being more that the residual value of the points, the last few years of the contract will likely be unsaleable.

bookwormde

 

[JimMIA]

Resale, after the resort is sold out and there are lots of resale contraacts on the market for the resort you want.

bookwormde

I'd agree with this, and generally I'd say that's probably 3-5 years after the resort sells out. I think there has to be a shake-out period where people buy, use their points (or not) and then decide to sell for whatever reason.

I think resorts sold with a high percentage of financed sales (SSR, AKV, BLT, and Aulani) will turn over quicker than the older resorts where most buyers paid cash. A buyer who paid cash has a sunk cost, but a financed buyer has a monthly payment and an ongoing debt. If their financial picture changes, they may find they can no longer afford that optional luxury asset.

I'd also expect larger resorts to decline in resale prices quicker than with the smaller resorts simply because more supply of available contracts puts downward pressure on resale prices.

So if I were looking for price, I'd be looking at OKW, SSR, BWV, and down the road a couple of years AKV and BLT.

Because of its small size, I think GCV resale prices will hold up for quite some time like BCV did. I've always been a little surpirsed that VWL resale prices were relatively low; it's such a beautiful resort and very small, but VWL prices have always been somewhat below BCV which is a little larger.

 

[Dean]

Usually the best time to buy in is the initial offering. While you might save $$$ on the surface by waiting, you're losing usage. With promotions there may be one that works better for you than another and that is a crap shoot. IMO, the price differential between resale for less in demand properties has stretched enough that it's worth taking the chance on not getting your preferred option for many situations. Of course with WDW you can generally get something most times of the year, for locations with only 1 resort where you want to go most years, that is a major consideration. The fixed week option for HI is also intriguing. I wonder why we haven't heard more complaining about that issue though as it's clearly a detour from DVC's usual methods even though it's c/w the types of things I expect them to do to sell HI.

 

[spiceycat]

Usually the best time to buy in is the initial offering. While you might save $$$ on the surface by waiting, you're losing usage. With promotions there may be one that works better for you than another and that is a crap shoot.

agree completely.

with the WDW DVC resorts the only one (so far) that is selling for less than when it first offered is SSR. (HH and VB are too - but they are not on WDW property)

kept in mind when OKW was first offered it was $48 per point. called DVC then.

 

[Alexander]

agree completely.

with the WDW DVC resorts the only one (so far) that is selling for less than when it first offered is SSR. (HH and VB are too - but they are not on WDW property)

kept in mind when OKW was first offered it was $48 per point. called DVC then.

And at the time I thought--are they crazy? That is a lot of money! Ha--I ended up paying almost $80/point years later and still kick myself for waiting!

 

[JimMIA]

...with the WDW DVC resorts the only one (so far) that is selling for less than when it first offered is SSR. (HH and VB are too - but they are not on WDW property)

kept in mind when OKW was first offered it was $48 per point. called DVC then.

I think you're right as far as this goes, but I'm not sure the experience from 1992-2008 is an accurate indicator of what will happen in the future for several reasons.

The first reason is that points aren't selling for $48 any more. DVD either set OKW WAY low to introduce their "Best Kept Secret" or they made a mistake and priced it WAY too low initially. Unlike the mid-1990's, DVC today is perceived as a highly-priced purchase when buying direct.

The other reason is that Disney is no longer strongly supporting ROFR levels, and resale prices have dropped dramatically. When I first purchased resale, I bought OKW at about $12 below DVC-direct prices. Today, OKW is selling (and passing ROFR) at $25-30 below direct prices. That's a huge difference and the SSR experience should tell us a lot more about the future than the early years of OKW or BWV ownership.

2010 is a whole different ballgame from from the early years. I suspect SSR and AKV are the models for the future, with Founding Members getting a good price that will hold up for 2-3 years...but a few years later there will be a significant differential between resale and what they paid.

 

[spiceycat]

the op asks when the best time to buy - has nothing to do with direct prices - just when is the best time to buy.

the best time to buy is still when the resort is first offered.

the only DVC resort at WDW that did not go up is SSR. and think that has more to do with where it is located than DVC prices are going down. Also SSR point charts are way to high. they need to be the same as OKW to get guests to stay there. if the price that CRO charges for them are the same - then the points should be the same. Otherwise it looks like OKW is worth more - to me that is bad marketing. Lower price, lower points at OKW is closer to Epcot than SSR.