Best Days to visit the parks...Len???

[lentesta]

Thanks very much, Mrs. Ojo.

I think I'm going to take "wait and see" approach for the next two weeks, after which we'll know a bit better which technique(s) work(s). I'm lining up people to be in the parks for the next 14 days (and *that's* the job you want, folks - it's like ten minutes of work per hour) to see what the wait times are around 2 pm at the headliner attractions. I'll post 'em to the blog when we know 'em.

I'm still going to filter out the people without hotel ressies tonight, just to see
if it makes a difference. I'll post to the blog when it's done.

Thanks again for the input.

Len

 

[crazyj4488]

Well said....I also love the UG but all of this is making me go crazy as I haven't been to Disney when it's crowded since the 80's...I've always done a great job being flexible and planning a trip during less crowded times...Len even commented that they started to take a second look at the numbers only after they got a couple of days just plain wrong over the Easter / Spring Break Season. I admire someone taking a step back to take another look at their research and recording methods, but this being said, what's to say that these new "un-tested" methods aren't completely wrong. Also, I would suppose it would be better trusted data in the long run if the numbers are TOO HIGH versus too low...that way you have people happier readers amd followers versus angry ones when they show up at a 2 level and get slammed with crowds.

I almost changed my entire trip because of these threads and it has really stressed me out and dampened my spirits. I'm only a week away from being there and I now find my excitement level far below my anxiety over dealing with possible crowds. I guess that's one problem with being a hardcore DIS planner and DIS board member...you are sometimes struck with information overload. Heck, if I wouldn't have found this board (first time reader before a trip), I would have simply showed up at the parks happy as C*rap and then proceeded to deal with the unexpected crowds using my generally well tested knowledge of crowd patterns, fastpasses, and the like. Simply being armed with an excellent knowledge of how to get from one place to another in the parks puts us at an advantage over those people you see huddled around a guidemap during the day wondering where the heck to go next.

Even if the crowds are nasty, I am sure we are only going to have to adjust things for the attractions such as the Mountains (usually always only hit these rides at the last hour the park is open) - Test Track - and Mission Space. I've yet to have trouble with Tower of Terror and only had to get a fastpass for Rock n Roller once....again, I've only been during a holiday or the Summer since the 80's.

Well, at this point I am mainly anxiously awaiting to hear from those people that are just now getting there. The tale of this week will pretty much be somewhat similar to the last week of April.

Just as a sidenote...I was able to make a PS for a California Grill (had 3 times to choose from) dinner just about 4 days ago with no problems. I am using this to my advantage so I can leave the park at closing on Tuesday without waiting in the hoards of people trying to get to Ferry Boats, Monorails, and Buses. I will already have a rental car parked at the CS for our dinner, will walk right over there after the Fireworks, get in my car and high tail it back to POR. I'm also going to try this strategy for my Thursday night at Epcot after Illuminations since my schedule kinda has me stuck at Epcot on a more crowded day of the week....the plan is...get a PS at the Yacht club restaurant, park, enter and leave on foot via the International Gateway.

Anyways, good luck to us all during this busier than usual time and I'm truly thankful for everyone's input in regards to this time at the resort.

 

[markh]

Len, do you have any data on hotel occupancy for the next couple of weeks?
We looked on Expedia last night, and the choices were slim for the end of this month - is that normal for this time of year? thx.

 

[ms.ojo]

Thanks very much, Mrs. Ojo.

Len

 

[cruisnfamily]

Ms. Ojo,
Just wanted to say that was a very well thought out and well written post!

I agree with many of your thoughts thinking that the people registering on the UG site are the hard core planners and aren't a true reflection of Disney guests. I'm sure we(the hard core planners) skew things quite a bit because we all do things similarly to each other but probably very different from the average Disney visitor.

I saw somebody said something along the lines of "the UG got several spring break/easter crowd level days wrong". Did UG over or under estimate the crowds? Just curious?

thanks to you Len for posting here and sharing so much info with us!

 

[ms.ojo]

Ms. Ojo,
Just wanted to say that was a very well thought out and well written post!

I agree with many of your thoughts thinking that the people registering on the UG site are the hard core planners and aren't a true reflection of Disney guests. I'm sure we(the hard core planners) skew things quite a bit because we all do things similarly to each other but probably very different from the average Disney visitor.

I saw somebody said something along the lines of "the UG got several spring break/easter crowd level days wrong". Did UG over or under estimate the crowds? Just curious?

thanks to you Len for posting here and sharing so much info with us!

Hi. Thank you for your nice comments.

To answer your question, UG underestimated Easter crowds.....I believe the original model on historical data didn't take into account Easter came much earlier this yr. They provide so much really useful data!!! That was just one blib on the radar screen that was off. Bound to happen.

 

[weluvpluto]

Just wanted to mention, I'm a pretty hard core planner and I had no idea about the trip planner section of UG's site until today.


I also want to say "Give Len a break!" He's only trying to give background on how they predict crowds, because so many people wanted to know.

 

[lentesta]

Markh, I'm going to have our hotel folks call the DTD hotels tomorrow and see what they can help us with. Those two groups know each other, so it's easier for me to just ask our hotel team to do it.

crazyj4488, sorry for the crowd level-induced nervousness. It sounds like you've got the right spirit, though! Best of luck on your trip.

I'm off to filter out the folks who've not listed hotel rooms from the trip planner. Hope to get that done this evening, then we'll sit back and watch!

Edit @ 11:58 pm EST on Sunday: Filtered out all the trips from the trip planner that didn't specify a hotel (and thus were not "serious" about their trip). Looks to be the in the same ballpark, number-wise, every day between now and mid-May. The crowd level number vary a bit more in the hotel-only estimates, I'm guessing because of the smaller sample size (2,472 trips, a bit more than 10,000 "vacation days" in 2005). I may have our statistician look at it later this week. Also put out calls to the extend research team to see if we can get actual wait time numbers from the MK this week and next.

Len


Len

 

[marriedmarylander]

Please do get back to us... and let us know if the May 16th week is now going to jump up (it's only 3 now).

 

[crazyj4488]

Bah, like I said...it is more or less information overload. Again, not having all the extra information allows you to have that "ignorance is bliss" experience. I've never had a bad time while vacationing at Disney and I always manage to see and do more than enough...Perhaps it's the thought of possibly having that one less than desirable trip that gets to me

Oh well, just 6 days left...I think I've done almost all that I can do for now less a couple of minor questions that I need answered on some other threads.

At least it's nice to think there will be so many other DIS'ers in the same boat as myself....hehe.

 

[jpeltier]

Everybody take a deep breath. Like crazy said-we are all armed with park strategy. This is knowledge that only a small %age of fellow park attendees have.
I've been going to WDW pretty steadily since the mid '80s. There used to be several times a year when one could "own" the park. That doesn't happen much anymore. The weak dollar has hoardes of foreigners coming over to WDW. People travel more in this country.Yes,and credit card use is at an all time high. Kids from all over the country take senior trips to WDW. Hello cheerleaders and band groups All of these factors plus,I'm sure, many more make it rare to have a 3 crowd these days. .The levels for our trip(JUne 1-June 6) have also gone up,at least on the blog. We are bringing DD and her friend. If I stress out about this, then none of us will enjoy the trip.

 

[lentesta]

We'll have someone from the UG research team in the MK almost every day for the next two weeks, so we should be able to get a good idea of the wait times. I'll post something to the blog as soon as that info starts rolling in.

Len

 

[caitycaity]

i just wanted to say thank you, len. i appreciate all the work you're doing.

 

[cocowum]

I would also like to thank you for all your hard work Len. My family will be there next week and we will be armed with your touring plans. I'm sure we will be fine. Thanks so much for all that you do.

 

[bigsis1970]

Hi Len - Thanks Thanks Thanks for being here and responding to us all and giving such good clear info . I have your book (the UG)& am signed up on your website. I am traveling July 2nd to the 8th .. I am going to the parks that have EMH which are the worst days and crowds are listed 8-9 so MGM 7/3, AK 7/5, MK 7/6 and Epcot 7/7 also a waterpark on 7/4 . I am traveling with myself, my dd 11 and ds 8 (we have been before Dec 2001, Nov/Dec 2002 , June 2003 & Oct/Nov 2004) so there is nothing that is a must do as we have seen most things except the new attractions opening this spring - a few things are our faves of course. It seems you have touring plans for everything but my age group/or family make up. I am just wondering what i should choose for plans - I am thinking the one titled "Adult One-Day Touring Plan for Holidays" I understand you do no customize plans anymore so do you think that is a good choice for that week and my family make up? Thanks Michelle

 

[lentesta]

Hi Michelle,

Thanks very much. I think the holiday plans would be appropriate, if you could find one for your group. What would you be looking for that's different from, say, the adult plan? I'll see what we can recommend.

Thanks again!

Len