Best Days to visit the parks...Len???

[Violetx3]

Any1 have any experience with crowd level 5?? How bad is it? My last week in April days were originally a 3 and I wasn't worried until the list just got updated. I was even thinking of changing my trip to the 2nd week of May because of this update....any advice?

Several areas in NE with spring break last week of April and that huge ARDA conference going on at the Swan and Dolphin. DIsney boosting the hours at the MK and adding extra parades....not good...GRRR

I still think predictions for the 2nd week of May are off too. Everyone has been posting that many of resorts are fully booked the 2nd week (and are not the 1st and 3rd week). I still think Disney will add hours or parades. A lot of people may have held off to travel after the 5th to experience new attractions.

 

[Pedler]

I still think predictions for the 2nd week of May are off too. Everyone has been posting that many of resorts are fully booked the 2nd week (and are not the 1st and 3rd week). I still think Disney will add hours or parades. A lot of people may have held off to travel after the 5th to experience new attractions.

I wonder how much the changes in the pricing structure of tickets is having on the models used to predict crowd levels? With the incremental cost of adding extra days only a few dollars people could be staying longer and spending more time in the parks. I definitely think it having an effect on peoples arrival / departing day plans. I know that we added two additional days to our trip based on the minimal ticket cost. ($8 total for all four of us for 2 days.)

It would be interesting to see if there is any change in the average number of days spent in the parks per visit this year as compared to previous years. In particular for people that only go once a year or less.

 

[crazyj4488]

The ARDA conference is the American Resort Development Association. It draws well over 3,500 attendees....multiply this number by an average of 3 for family members that may be in tow with attendees and you are looking at a pretty nasty number. One member here on diboards said he has attended one and says it draws around 100,000 people but I am NOT buying that after doing the research on ARDA's site. Expect all the Epcot hotels, especially, the Swan and Dolphin to be at capacity during the last week of April because of this. I would imagine the CSR to be at capacity as well given it is typically more of a business travellers destination in the world.

NOw back to my original question...LEN, anyone?!? Can someone give me an idea of what we are talking about when a crowd level 5 is involved. I know this thing cannot be %100 percent accurate as no one can predict the future. However, the nasty sign of the looming crowds is DIsney raising the hours and adding parades. They consistently monitor area hotel bookings in order to compensate in the parks...therefore, this isn't looking too pretty. Crowds really get to me.

And yes yes, I have all my touring plans from multiple sources worked out. I just want the MK plan to be the only one I need to use. MK is always pretty tight with people no matter what.

hanks again for any further descrioption of crowd level 5...this has me going a bit bonkers.

-J

 

[mermaidwannabe]

I'm curious about level 5 too as we're going the last week of April.

 

[nataliesdaddy]

well - we were going to go June 1st for a couple weeks - that would put the start of the vacation at a slower time - BUT I could not tell if we would have snow days or not. SO I planned for a coupel days later on the 3rd. This puts a lot of our time on musier days.

BUT I have my PSs already SO... nevermind the changes

Besides we have been there peak season before and one fact remains - Go early and you will get a bunch done - show up late and you will not

SO with that said - touring plans or no - I am sticking to our schedule.

 

[lentesta]

I'll check on the hotel occupancy and conference schedules. But I don't think a conference of 3,500 people has any noticable impact on WDW, aside from hotel rooms. Too many things serve to dilute the impact on any particular park at any particular time. These include:

1) Conference attendees generally have conferences during the day, meaning they're not in the parks.

2) Not all of them bring SOs or children.

3) Not all of them go to the same theme park.

4) Not all of them arrive at the park at the same time.

5) They have lots of rides to choose from.

Because of these things, and aside from hotel rooms, I doubt whether you'd even notice an extra 3,500 people staying in WDW - it'd be a blip on the radar. I think the number would have to be much higher - in the several tens of thousands - before you start to see a big jump in numbers.

Len

 

[Pedler]

I'm curious about level 5 too as we're going the last week of April.

I am curious to. I like UG but it would be nice to get an idea of wait times at the various crowd levels. We are going at the end of August and spanning crowd levels of 5-4. It would help planning to get an idea of what the wait time delta is between the levels. I realize that this is not an exact science and actual milage may vary. Still it would be nice to know if a 5 is 10% more, 20% more or twice as crowded as say a 4. And what would the expected wait be for a few sample rides at say 10AM, 12AM, 2AM etc. (Of course I plan on being back at the pool in the afternoon but it would be nice to know what long lines I am missing. ).

Its nice to have a 1-10 scale for crowding but without some guide as to wait times its hard to put in in context.

 

[lentesta]

Does the scale at the bottom of the page (where we suggest approximate wait times for the middle range of numbers) help? Or is more specific info needed? Let me know and I'll see what we can do!

Thanks,

Len

 

[crazyj4488]

First off....thanks for your responses Len. I really appreciate your attention and time in regards to the crowd scale questions. Crowd levels 3 and 5 are described as such:

3. Light crowd conditions.
5. Busy. Crowds affect headliner attractions and major attractions.

That's a bit vague and I am comparing it to level 3 which is what my dates used to be.

**I guess, at this pont, the most valuable piece of information your could give us in regards to the change for the last week of April would be in regards to exactly what factors caused a 2 point jump during this time?! I was just about positive that I would see an increase to a level of 4 once the changes were made...the increase to 5 kinda knocked me off my feet...surprised. Was it the few areas of the NE that still had a spring break? I've done a lot of research and the number of schools with their Spring Break on the last week of April seems VERY small compared to all the other weeks. You can do searches on this board and find people sounding off with their district's dates this month and take a tally of sorts. If this info is based largely upon hotel bookings in the area, then that would pretty much explain it. I don't have access to that type of info (would love to figure out how though if anyone knows : )

Again, thank for your help in getting us prepared. We all invest a huge amount of money and time preparing for these vacations. The UG and people contributing to this board really help provide for the best return on our investment.

Many Regards,

-J

 

[Pedler]

Does the scale at the bottom of the page (where we suggest approximate wait times for the middle range of numbers) help? Or is more specific info needed? Let me know and I'll see what we can do!

Hi Len,

Is it safe to work the numbers backwards? There is about a 15 minute interval between 8 and 7. Would that mean a 15 minute interval between 7 & 6 and then the same for 6 & 5 ? I also assume the wait times are for the crowded times of the day.

The busiest times of year and the synopisis of the attractions are some of the best features of UG.

Thanks for all of your work on this.

Pedler.

 

[ms.ojo]

OK, since Len has answered a few posts, and then gone quiet...I'm assuming he is researching for us the answer to the questions about the last week in April making a 2pt jump. ??? But I hate to make assumptions so I'm posting again hoping he's subscribed to this thread and will see our conversations...

Seems there are several of us hoping to better understand what key factors led to the 2pt jump for the end of April....and what that jump translates into in terms of % increase in crowds. Sounds like Len agrees the ARDA conference is not a contributing factor (other than hotel space) so hopefully that hotel capacity is being adjusted appropriately in his model so it is not unjustly inflated.

We're all trying to be helpful Len (really) as you rework your modeling to give better predictions. Just understanding the "Why's" behind a # help us make informed decisions. OH.....and did you double check the school vacation info'n??? I see I'm not alone in suggesting that it is the THIRD week of April that has most schools off in the NE...not the last. Guess we really won't know until we're there.

Thanks for keeping us informed. While we were all eager to see your updated predictions...and I know you at UG wanted to get the info'n out as quickly and timely as possible...I hope there was adequate time to really interpret the results and think through the modeling and assumptions to make sure this new "calculator model" is working as you would like.

 

[maxaroni]

bump

 

[crazyj4488]

Yes, from all the reading and research that I've done, it definately looks like more people are reporting the 3rd week of April as their school spring break versus that last week. Well, the 3rd week ratings are only at a 4 and I believe Disney has even raised park hours and added parades on that 3rd week as well.

Soooo....the 2 point jump leaves me scratching my head here. Again, I was definately expecting a 1 point jump from 3 to 4...not 3 to 5....I'm stumped.

I'd have to agree...the Ug book was a great read and worthy investment for my trip this year. Thank to Len and everyone else invovled in helping us plan better.

 

[lentesta]

Ah, thanks folks. It's going to take a couple of days to get a hotel answer, as it's the weekend and our contacts don't usually work then.

I'm looking at the EMH calendar, and park hours for the next two weeks now, and I'll have an update posted to the site this evening. I'll also ask Bob about the 1-10 scale, which might now need some clarification.

Thanks again for the input!

Len

 

[lentesta]

For the next two weeks, here's what we're seeing:

Hotel occupancy rates are around 5 in the I-Drive, Lake Buena Vista area.

The Magic Kingdom's open 88 hours next week, and 87 the week after. Both of those are solid "5s" in our book. *But* the thing I didn't consider originally for the crowd level (I did for the best days) is that the MK closes early on both Fri and Sat for grad nights. If we assume the park would close at 9 pm instead of 7 each night, that makes the park hours 92 and 91 each week, or a 6 in the crowd level. So that's where we're currently at. I'll see what the folks at the DTD resorts are seeing, if that helps too.

Len

 

[ms.ojo]

For the next two weeks, here's what we're seeing:

Hotel occupancy rates are around 5 in the I-Drive, Lake Buena Vista area.

The Magic Kingdom's open 88 hours next week, and 87 the week after. Both of those are solid "5s" in our book. *But* the thing I didn't consider originally for the crowd level (I did for the best days) is that the MK closes early on both Fri and Sat for grad nights. If we assume the park would close at 9 pm instead of 7 each night, that makes the park hours 92 and 91 each week, or a 6 in the crowd level. So that's where we're currently at. I'll see what the folks at the DTD resorts are seeing, if that helps too.

Len

Oh noooooo Len. Please say it isn't so??!!?? That's definitely the wrong direction!!! Yeichs! from a 3 to a 6????? ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[crazyj4488]

From 3's to 5, 6, and 7's?!?!?!?!?!?!?! I am seriously thinking about re-booking my trip for the week of May 15-21 because of this. Am I being irrational? I've been in May twice and have really enjoyed it...it's just a bit hotter though. I really don't handle crowds all that well at Disney even with a solid plan...I'd rather going during a time when it's NOT slammed. Ugh....advice...someone.

 

[ladydancer]

For the next two weeks, here's what we're seeing:

Hotel occupancy rates are around 5 in the I-Drive, Lake Buena Vista area.

The Magic Kingdom's open 88 hours next week, and 87 the week after. Both of those are solid "5s" in our book. *But* the thing I didn't consider originally for the crowd level (I did for the best days) is that the MK closes early on both Fri and Sat for grad nights. If we assume the park would close at 9 pm instead of 7 each night, that makes the park hours 92 and 91 each week, or a 6 in the crowd level. So that's where we're currently at. I'll see what the folks at the DTD resorts are seeing, if that helps too.

Len

Thanks Len for all your professional advice but can you clarifiy one more thing for me.

Are you saying the crowd level is a 7 on Fri. and Sat. nights ONLY? We are leaving to go home Friday afternoon. So will we miss the 7 level crowd?

 

[lentesta]

Hi ladydancer,

The 7 is 7 pm - sorry about that. Didn't mean to cause heart palpitations this early on a Saturday!

I'm going to contact a couple of big travel agencies this weekend to see how their bookings are shaping up by week, in the hopes this will shed a little light on future crowd levels. Should have those details this weekend.

Len

 

[tikkipoo]

Very good morning Len! So, from you previous posts here, can I assume that the numbers could change well up to and including 30 days prior to the trip. If only because the EMH aren't posted. I am going October 15-23, and the numbers have jumped for me as well. Compulsive planner I am, just wondering if I should wait closer to 30 days to plan my itinerary? And will you continue to make changes to the list for the remainder of the year, or just this once with all your new info?

Also, if I read the front of your draft correctly, you were saying that the TOURING PLAN is the most important factor in wait time. Crowd index is third on the list. Not as important. (unless, I suppose you are in the 9-10 level YUCK! Right?

(P.S. I think you got yourself into a pickle when you responded to this post People love to "talk" to celebraties!