Best Days to visit the parks...Len???

[kellyandkids]

Guess I will have to deal with the 7's I have in early May. (Man my kids are going to kill me- they are messing up their high school exam exemption by going on this trip that I "assured" them back in Dec. when I was planning it was going to be less crowded than the summer! Oh well..)Thought about changing to the 2nd wk in May, but couldn't find a room avail. at the Disney resorts I wanted (so how can that be a time of a 3????) Anyway - if the parks are at a 7, which park can "best handle" that size crowd - or does a 7 just mean they all have equally long waits at top attractions? Thanks for your help Len (and everyone else here!)

 

[crazyj4488]

IF you go back to touringplans.com and look at the updated list he is rating Sunday the 24th a 6....Monday a 7 and Tuesday a 6...then on to 5's and 4's for Friday and Saturday....those two 4 nights are grad nights though...the park closes early at 7PM.

I have been thinking of changing my trip to the 2nd week of May (solid 3's) but some poeple in my other thread have told me not to. Still trying to decide...I really am no fan of crowds even with the solid plans I have. I've got the flexibility to change....dunno if I should use it...UGH help!

 

[lentesta]

Hi folks,

To gauge the number of people who'll be in WDW over the next two months, I went back and looked at the number of people who've entered trips into the Unofficial Guide's online trip planner. Specifically, I looked at the start and end dates for those trips, and counted the number of families visiting on each day.

So, for example, if we had family "A" visiting on May 1, 2, and 3, and family "B" visiting on May 3, 4, 5, we'd have the following count:

May 1: 1 family
May 2: 1 family
May 3: 2 families
May 4: 1 family
May 5: 1 family

Because some families don't start planning (i.e., using the trip planner) until a short time before their trip, I'm not comfortable forecasting out more than 60 days. And we think that Orlando residents don't use the trip planner, so we adjusted for locals using data from the Orlando Visitor and Convention Bureau.

There are 6,257 trips entered into the Guide's trip planner for 2005. The highest dates for the year to date were the week after Easter (actually starting around 3/23/05). But very, very close to that are the next two weeks, through 4/29/05. (The low point was late February.)

I'm going to try to get a graph up on the site this evening so we can discuss it. The first week of May may be 6-ish, but I think the next couple of weeks might be 8's. I'll post the graph and we can all look at it.

Thanks for your patience. Hopefully the output of this process will be a very accurate, widely accepted method for predicting crowd levels 60 days out.

Len

 

[crazyj4488]

Grrreat...possible crowd levels comparing to Easter. Lovely. Let me ask you this those...most people do NOT use plans when going to WDW. Could it be that many planners such as ourselves thought this would be a good choice and that's why you have more people setup with a plan during the next two weeks.

I think I am going to wait to see if some people out at the parks next week reply back here with "crowded" to see what the heck is going on.

 

[Eeyore'sthebest]

AAAHHHH. I knew I should have stuck to the second week in November!!

 

[markh]

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=793316

 

[lentesta]

Okay folks, I've posted a couple of graphs to the website showing the number of trips booked in the Unofficial Guide's trip planner, by date, from Feb-Jun 2005. From the touringplans home, scroll to the bottom of the page and look for the link titled "Crowd Blog" under "Sneak Peeks" on the right hand side. (Sorry, I can't post the link.)

As my previous post said, we looked at how many families said they'd be visiting WDW on any particular date. (One caveat: these include travel days, not "days in the parks." We're predicting crowd levels, not days of the week.) More than 6,300 trips are entered in the trip planner for 2005, representing more than 40,000 "vacation days" in WDW. So I think the sample size is big enough.

Based on those responses, it appears that the next two weeks will be only slightly slower than Easter, varying between 7 and 9 most days. Using historical MK park hours as a yardstick, the next two weeks would be a 6, but remember that there are grad nights in the MK on both of the next two Fridays and Saturdays. So that "6" might, in retrospect, be a little low.

I'm looking forward to discussing these new graphs. If I had to guess, I'd say the trip data is probably a better indicator of crowd levels than historical hotel occupancy or park hours. I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.

Sincerely,

Len

 

[tikkipoo]

Len, I like it. The blog, that is, not the numbers. I think it makes it a little more clear on what those numbers are representing. BTW, maybe just a heads up, from Oct 22-28 appearantly there are no more rooms available at the BC, YC or BW. Don't know why..little scary!

 

[kellyandkids]

Aw man! The crowd level for my trip 5/6-11 is looking worse by the day. Any idea what percentage of Disney park visitors are "booked" on your site? Also, I asked yesterday if the parks are at a 7 or 8, which park can "handle" the crowds best? Or is that your answer in the "recommended park for the day"? I guess I am asking just in general. Looks like a lot of data. Your second week in May looks more "accurate" than the 3's I saw earlier.

 

[lentesta]

Kellyandkids, it's almost always Epcot, followed by the MK.

Tikkipoo, you don't like the methodology, or the higher numbers?

Len

 

[Dunkeroo]

I am a little confused. We are going 5/22 thru 5/22. On the new graph it looks like Memorial day weekend to include Memorial Day will have a lower crowd level than the day proceeding it. This does not look good for us at all. I have never been when crowd levels were above a 6.

 

[liznboys]

There's another thread about the blog:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=793761


Len, will you be updating the Best Days page with the NEW new crowd level numbers? That page has 3's for our trip, and the blog has 7's and 8's. We'll prepare for 8's, and hope for 3's I guess!

 

[rt2dz]

Len, will you be updating the Best Days page with the NEW new crowd level numbers? That page has 3's for our trip, and the blog has 7's and 8's. We'll prepare for 8's, and hope for 3's I guess!

This is what confuses me too. The blogs & crowd level don't match. Plus, I'm not sure how I feel about the blogs. I love the UG, it's my Disney Bible. I recommend it to everyone. But, I don't register onsite using the trip planner. Won't hotel occupancy be a better indicator?

Oh well, I suppose there is nothing I can do about it. This trip was supposed to be in Sept, but since I'm pregnant (due Sept. 7) this (May 20-29, 30th travel day) is our only other option. I just HATE crowds.

 

[lentesta]

We've not yet updated the BesyDays page, folks, so the blog is the only place that has the new trip info. Before I update the main page, I want to make sure we agree on the methodology.

Len

 

[Violetx3]

Was Easter considered a 9 0r a 10?

The new higher May numbers do seem to match with what I have read about hotel occupancy now. (3's for the 2nd week just didn't jive.) Polls posted on these boards also support a busier 2nd week.

Why haven't May park hours been increased to match late April?

 

[back2disney]

Len,
Part of my stay is during Wednesday December 7th, 2005. Is that line correct? No park to avoid that day - that would be the least crowded day of the year if so.

Interesting to note that the week after Thanksgiving has 3s and 4s now instead of 1s and 2s. Shouldn't be long before the efficient market has every day as a 5

 

[markh]

I would expect that Disney is going to have a banner year, between the 50th celebration and tourism in general being up. It will be interesting to see how May crowds develop, as this is generally a slower time of year.

 

[lentesta]

back2disney -

One interesting thing to see in the trip planner data is that most folks generally start planning around 90 days out, so mid-May right now has more responses than Christmas. That's why I'm more comfortable with the next two months versus the rest of the year. Perhaps we'll start adjusting the crowd level calendars 60 days out instead of once per year.

Len

 

[peach]

Um....Len? I am not the brightest bulb in the park and I am not even sure what an algorhythm (bet THAT is not spelled right) is but I just finished reading the UG book and I seem to recall a statistic in there that said that only 1 in 350 people in the park have been exposed to the information in the book. Are these and the people on the touring plan web site the ones who took the surveys? Would this somehow skew the survey numbers that you based your data on?

I mean really, Len...I don't know nothing from nothing, my dh is an accountant and does all the numbers work around here...I feel like the dope in the back of the class even asking this question!!!

Loved the book by the way. Not only was it informative but a great read as well.

thanks,
sneaking back into lurkerville,
peach
ps....yeah...my crowd number went from a 3 to a 7 woe is me.

 

[ms.ojo]

Ok, here goes....I'm not sure I can buy into this methodology Len. I agree w/ an earlier posting, a lot of us Dis'ers (and UG followers, TGM, etc) tend to go during the historically low volume times. So I believe we as a group, can make things look more inflated for those time periods as we'd be most apt to to register our trips on your site. I would think local hotel occupancy rates would be a much better yardstick. And even there, I think they need to be adjusted for conventioneers vs. "regular" tourists.

Holidays and wide spread school vacations are definitely imp't factors. Saying crowds would be higher the next 2 weeks vs. Memorial Day weekend, however just does not seem right.

I'm a research scientist at a Marketing Research Company (ok, I was before I became a stay at home Mom) and modeling and interpreting the data is very tough. There are always so many other factors that can affect things....

For instance, let's just look at grad nites.

Group 1: These people avoid MK those days as it closes early and they may not have hoppers and want to enjoy a full day at a park. So they opt for Thurs or Sun as a better option to visit MK and do a diff't park on Fri/Sat

Group 2: These people are raring for EMH morning on Friday!!! Thought process being hoards of other people are staying away...I'll see more from 8-2pm and be able to go back and relax pool side. If I want, I'll catch an evening show at another park. MK on a grad night is a great choice.

Group 3: Similar to above they see an oppty in doing MK on a grad night day but prefer a 9am opening over an 8am opening so they go on Sat. It won't be such a zoo since it's not open late.

Group 4: Let's do MK on Wed w/ late night EMH. Maybe get up early and do a few hours before returning for a nap...then return to the park around dinner and have a fun night. Plan to sleep in on Thursday making many of the parks a great bet for Thurs. morning.

And I'm sure there are other scenarios too and of course weather. I know you quote someone in your UG saying basically "UG says to do this....we think maybe everyone will be doing that so we will do the opposite....but then maybe others are thinking let's all do the opposite...so perhaps we should do what UG suggested afterall." I believe your response was you were flattered she felt so many people followed your advice but at this point, it is really still a very small percentage of the people who travel to WDW who read and follow the UG plans.

Again, on this site, we all tend to be avid readers and Disney-aholics so we can easily slant the data. What I'm getting at is that I think we (myself definitely included) start to place too great an importance on getting this "right". What's really important, as you have said many times, is having a good touring plan. Realizing the crowd levels will probably be higher than expected is also imp't....tourism is up and the celebration is about to kick-off! But no, I just don't believe the last week in April is going to be approaching the crowds over Easter. I've been calling to change some PS's recently and have been able to get very good times at restaurants like Liberty Tree Tavern, Crystal Palace, Chef Mickey, Coral Seas and even O'Hana. I checked on airfare (we fly southwest) The nonstop flights we had to/from Orlando were clearly well below capacity. I was able to rebook my tickets a few wks ago and saved $60pp. For my family of 4 that was $240!!! If this was a busy travel time that would not have been possible.

So....I don't know...maybe getting to this level (predicting daily attendance levels for best days in the parks) was just a little too ambitious. Disney is certainly doing their "best" (probably w/out even trying) to make predictions more difficult. We all had to struggle w/ making PS's at a 90day mark when calendars weren't even available. EMH schedules are still very fluid and the MYW tickets w/ hopping being an option are definitely impacting how people tour the parks.

I know you're doing your best....but imho....I think perhaps this level of detail was just a bit ambitious and I don't buy into some of the assumptions. But I still LOVE the UG!!!!!!! And all the wonderful info'n you share on this sight!!!!