Attn Len: ? About New Ug Crowd Levels

[DISNEY4FUN]

Hi everyone,

I have a question about the revisions to the UG's crowd level predictions. We will be in WDW 5/15-5/21. We have gone this week in May for the last two years. In the past, it has rated about a 3 on the crowd scale. With the UG's revised system, the prediction has changed this year to a 7. Does that mean that the old number was predicted low and the actual crowds in 2004 were a 7 or does it mean that this year we should expect a noticable difference in the crowds?

The reason I ask is that we have never really needed to use a touring plan. But if the crowds will be double what we are used to then I want to have a plan to use.

Thanks.

 

[RevBob]

Lori,
I believe in an earlier post that Len said that he would be leaving today for the media event, so he may not reply to your request until either he gets back or gets to a computer terminal.
I think from what I have been hearing that it is possible that crowds this May and all through the summer will be up from previous years because of all the 1) advertising, 2)the 50th Celebration, and 3)extra incentives that Disney is using to attract attendance, ie: Magical Express, EMHs in the evening, etc.
No matter what, remember it's WDW and have fun.

 

[lentesta]

Hi DISNEY4FUN,

Using the Guide's new scale, a "7" would correspond to peak wait times of about 70 minutes at the Magic Kingdom's headliner attractions, while a "3" would be a peak wait of 30 minutes. I think we're actually predicting peak waits of 65 to 85 minutes in the crowd blog for your dates. Given the data we mention in that blog, I think a number closer to 7 is a more realistic expectation than a 3.

I think in the free cheat sheets posted here earlier, I said that you probably could do without much advice for crowd levels smaller than 4. I'd say the same thing about a touring plan - it's probably a good idea for crowd levels 4 and higher.

Hope this helps!

Len

 

[RevBob]

Len,
Would you agree though that the crowd level will be higher this year than in the past?

 

[DISNEY4FUN]

"

Hi DISNEY4FUN,

Using the Guide's new scale, a "7" would correspond to peak wait times of about 70 minutes at the Magic Kingdom's headliner attractions, while a "3" would be a peak wait of 30 minutes. I think we're actually predicting peak waits of 65 to 85 minutes in the crowd blog for your dates. Given the data we mention in that blog, I think a number closer to 7 is a more realistic expectation than a 3."

So you're saying that we should expect to see a big difference in the crowds this year? I thought maybe your predictions of years past were incorrect and the crowds haven't really increased that much. (at least that's what I was hoping)

 

[Laurajeremy]

ok I dont know how scientific this is
but we know 2 families who just got back
one was there over the passover rush--came home wed
the other was there tue-thur
and both said the parks were crowded BUT the longest wait was for Space mountain (20 minutes) and test track (used fast pass)

We leave on sat and I know the anniv celebration is drawing people but based on these 2 families I am not as concerned as I once was

 

[dcibrando]

I'm really hoping to prove these numbers wrong when I got (May 14-21st) because I just don't see how the crowd levels will be as bad in May as they have been recently in April (with all the spring breakers). Sure some will argue it's because of the celebration, but last I checked... this is lasting well over a year and the majority of disney fans go to disney when they want to go, not just because of a celebration of some sort.

 

[bigcrit]

Hi everyone,

I have a question about the revisions to the UG's crowd level predictions. We will be in WDW 5/15-5/21. We have gone this week in May for the last two years. In the past, it has rated about a 3 on the crowd scale. With the UG's revised system, the prediction has changed this year to a 7. Does that mean that the old number was predicted low and the actual crowds in 2004 were a 7 or does it mean that this year we should expect a noticable difference in the crowds?

The reason I ask is that we have never really needed to use a touring plan. But if the crowds will be double what we are used to then I want to have a plan to use.

Thanks.

I just read the touringplans list and your dates are listed a 3. Do you have a link to different info on touringplans? I really would like to know. We are going during this time as well.

 

[glennsgirl762]

Hi Everybody
We just got back from Disney World on Sunday, and the crowd level was I'd say about a 7 at the parks. Magic Kingdom was crowded, not as crowded as Easter week, but crowded enough for up to 70 - 90 minute wait times on some rides. We were at the MK on thursday and while we were there Splash Mountain was down most of the day and Big Thunder Mountain was down. I don't know if they were up and running after we left. I noticed alot more characters around on this trip. MGM was crowded almost as bad as MK as well as AK. We had a wait time of about 15 - 20 min. for Hollywood & Vine and we had a PS for dinner. The least crowded was EPCOT. We were there on friday afternoon and was able to have lunch without a PS in Rose and Crown. The food by the way was excellent as well as Hollywood & Vine! Even our resort, Coronado Springs was filled with alot of families. The resort was quite noisy in our section( Rancho's 7A)I don't know if it was sold out. Also alot of sloppy people throwing trash around at our section of the resort. But thats another story.
I think with the opening of Soarin' and the 50th Celebration the crowd level at this time was more than there nomally is at this time. Whenever we went during late April to early May, I don't remember the parks being that crowded.

 

[frannn]

to be for Oct this year?

 

[Luv4Disney]

I'm not going to get myself worked up over it (We go the 11th-21st). I've posted some of this on another board but here's my thoughts: 1. last week was Passover (all NY public schools were closed along with some New England schools and who knows how many others?) 2. it's before most southern states get out (I believe some get out the 20th) 3. parents generally won't take their kids out of school, they'll just wait until the summer and 4. I called and asked and the CM said they haven't noticed an increase from last May's ressies and she said celebrations in the past haven't caused a major increase either. Either way, we'll have a great time and we'll just have to take everything in stride. After all, we will in the best place on earth!

 

[DISNEY4FUN]

I just read the touringplans list and your dates are listed a 3. Do you have a link to different info on touringplans? I really would like to know. We are going during this time as well.

If you click on the crowd blog link in the bottom right corner of the home page and read through this link, Len has a predicted list of wait times for that week in May. He is predicting 65 min waits at MK and that equals a 7 rating. I think they haven't updated the page that lists the entire year. I'm not sure when they make it official and update the main listing.

 

[Luv4Disney]

I still don't believe that there's really a way to predict what crowds we'll be. I think we'll all have to go and just see for ourselves. I also wouldn't judge the crowds by he 4,5,6 or 11,12,13 due to the press events and then Regis & Kelly (and even still, they might not draw big crowds anyway).

 

[dcibrando]

I am a strong believer May 14-21 will not be as bad as some predict. I will report on it when i get back...

 

[Luv4Disney]

I am a strong believer May 14-21 will not be as bad as some predict. I will report on it when i get back...

Ditto! And we'll see you at the Pop! We're the 11th-21st!

 

[DISNEY4FUN]

Ditto! And we'll see you at the Pop! We're the 11th-21st!

Well, I'd rather think positive like the two of you. So I'm not going to worry about the crowds. We're staying at Old Key West. Maybe I'll see you all in the parks.

 

[Luv4Disney]

If we spend too much time worrying about crowds, we'll get stressed out and not be able to totally enjoy the vacation. If there are crowds, so be it. We'll find a way to work around them, but we can't let possible crowds get us worked up. Either way, I'm sure we'll all have a fantastic vacation.

 

[harleyquinn]

I've been when the parks were at an 8. It was very crowded. That said my DH and I never waiting more than 25 minute for anything. We utilized fastpasses and evening EMH, but didn't do any major tour planning. We did go to the parks on the best days for that park, and avoided them on the busy days, for example we avioded MK on the weekend.

We even rode the notoriously busy Fantasyland rides with little or no waiting.

Of course that was when you paid extra for EMH.

 

[crazyj4488]

Hi Everybody
We just got back from Disney World on Sunday, and the crowd level was I'd say about a 7 at the parks. Magic Kingdom was crowded, not as crowded as Easter week, but crowded enough for up to 70 - 90 minute wait times on some rides. We were at the MK on thursday and while we were there Splash Mountain was down most of the day and Big Thunder Mountain was down. I don't know if they were up and running after we left. I noticed alot more characters around on this trip. MGM was crowded almost as bad as MK as well as AK. We had a wait time of about 15 - 20 min. for Hollywood & Vine
and we had a PS for dinner. The least crowded was EPCOT.

This was my EXACT SAME experience last week while I was there. I expect it to remain about the same thru May and worse through the Summer. The UG crowd level indicators were spot on after being revised so I expect them to be pretty darn accurate throughout May. Have a plan people or suffer. Get there early and get out for a break around 1PM...have those PS's as well. I cannot stress this enuff. We had a 20 min wait for our Hollywood and Vine PS seating as well...it was kinda annoying but, all in all, we had the greatest time with all the planning and crowd management skills from the UG and TGM that I used while on my trip. Our feet were in some pretty nasty pain though...the afternoon rests were a god send.

-J

 

[Yak]

If you click on the crowd blog link in the bottom right corner of the home page and read through this link, Len has a predicted list of wait times for that week in May. He is predicting 65 min waits at MK and that equals a 7 rating. I think they haven't updated the page that lists the entire year. I'm not sure when they make it official and update the main listing.

Sorry, newbie alert. What is this crowd blog? Bottom right corner of what home page?