Attendance

[Evita_W]

The physician who briefed congress this week informed them that it is expected that 75-150 million Americans will become infected. Let’s say only 20% of them develop clinical disease. That’s 15-30 million people sick.

Let’s say the currently-estimated 1% mortality rate holds true. That’s 150,000- 300,000 deaths from COVID19.

On the way to dying, those folks are going to tie up a lot of medical resources- isolated hospital rooms, intensive nursing, equipment like ventilators. Of course there are going to be people that receive all those resources and don’t die. So we’re goung to need that level of medical resources for how many people- maybe 3x the number of people who actually die. So we’re now looking at 450,000 to 900,000 seriously ill cases. Our healthcare system could quickly get overwhelmed.

So yes- the percentage of people expected to die is low. But it’s still a huge number.

Also- my mother dying is no more trivial to me than my nephew dying. Boggles my mind when people blow off the mortality stats as if deaths in the elderly are unimportant, only deaths of the young would be worth “worrying” about?

Also- the comparisons to flu are disingenuous. Flu is endemic and has been active worldwide and in the US since fall. Coronavirus just started- December in China and March-ish in the US. So yeah, flu has killed more people. But it got a head start.

I see lots of folks who characterize people as “panicked” from over hyped media. I personally haven’t witnessed any panic. Sure people are hoarding toilet paper which is illogical. But they’ve been told to prepare without being given a list of things it makes sense to buy. So your average joe just buys whatever everyone else is buying “to prepare”.

COVID 19 is a serious disease that is only now starting. Will it cause our society to collapse? No. But there will be lots of death, and there will be serious disruptions to try to stop the spread. People should go fully all-in on the greater good for awhile rather than being the “smart one” who knows not to buy into the “hype” from the media.

Except at 150 million that be about 50% of the population of the U.S., no country has had that high of a percentage, so I seriously think the physician is incorrect there.

 

[Evita_W]

It is probably like a big game of chicken between the major theme parks right now.

Not really, they are all playing it smart and not overreacting, instead you will probably be some operational changes both that we can see and many we can't behind the scenes. Additionally, canceling all of these events and such is going to have mass economic devastation that will result in more homeless and ultimately cause more rapid spread of disease if we aren't very careful.

 

[Lm3js]

Not really, they are all playing it smart and not overreacting, instead you will probably be some operational changes both that we can see and many we can't behind the scenes. Additionally, canceling all of these events and such is going to have mass economic devastation that will result in more homeless and ultimately cause more rapid spread of disease if we aren't very careful.

This. I'm worried more about this! Not to say I'm not worried about the virus. I am that too and am sorry for all the people infected and impacted. I think the economic fallout will have greater reaching and more long term impact to more people than the actual illness. I think our governments are trying to balance the spread vs. the economics which has to be extremely difficult. How far is too far and how much is not far enough? I'm thankful I'm not the one with that on my shoulders to decide for a nation.

 

[midnight star]

This. I'm worried more about this! Not to say I'm not worried about the virus. I am that too and am sorry for all the people infected and impacted. I think the economic fallout will have greater reaching and more long term impact to more people than the actual illness. I think our governments are trying to balance the spread vs. the economics which has to be extremely difficult. How far is too far and how much is not far enough? I'm thankful I'm not the one with that on my shoulders to decide for a nation.

I worry about this too. I feel like CDC said the threat is low, yet everything is getting cancelled...

 

[socaldisneylover]

It is probably like a big game of chicken between the major theme parks right now.

It's going to be somewhat coordinated. There's not going to be much daylight between when Disney closes and Universal, Cedar Point, Six Flags, Etc. Will be just like the NBA & NHL, which is announcing season suspension in next 2 hours.

 

[Aurora0427]

I worry about this too. I feel like CDC said the threat is low, yet everything is getting cancelled...

They keep sending mixed messages. The threat is low, but then the doctor who testified in front of congress said up to 75 million (I think that’s the number. The actual number is further back in this thread) Americans could be infected and we need to practice social distancing. So which is it?????

 

[socaldisneylover]

They keep sending mixed messages. The threat is low, but then the doctor who testified in front of congress said up to 150 million Americans could be infected and we need to practice social distancing. So which is it?????

They say we are 10 days behind Italy in terms of spread. Look at where Italy is now. Entire country is shut down. We may be there by next week.

 

[Aurora0427]

They say we are 10 days behind Italy in terms of spread. Look at where Italy is now. Entire country is shut down. We may be there by next week.

I agree with you.... I’m just saying the messages are kind of mixed. I’m ready for proactive school closures and just staying home.

 

[Lm3js]

I think the current threat is low but if it doesn’t slow, it could be greater. I am hoping a temporary curb will help and not do too much damage. The US is quite different than Italy and China and other countries in many different ways so we cannot exactly compare but we can look at trends and make decisions based on our strengths / weaknesses. Or at least, that is what I am hoping the people with the right expertise are doing!

 

[azdisneylover]

(((Big hugs))) to all. Wishing all good health, positive thoughts and lots of good chocolate. May we all get to our happy place soon.

 

[heathpack]

Except at 150 million that be about 50% of the population of the U.S., no country has had that high of a percentage, so I seriously think the physician is incorrect there.

Actually it is entirely possible for 50% of the US population to become infected. I’m not sure if you have any actual medical or scientific credentials? Maybe there’s some expertise that you have that trumps mine (which is not anything extraordinary, I’m just a veterinarian, although veterinarians do get a lot of training in infectious diseases and population medicine). If you do have that expertise, please share.

Very high infection rates are indeed plausible. This is a novel disease so there is no background immunity to it. Most people who get infected are not sick or only mildly sick. Those folks can still spread disease.

There will be a large number of infected
A smaller number of ill
A still smaller number of seriously ill
A still smaller number of critically ill requiring intensive care
And a smaller yet number of fatalities

I don’t know what to say. There’s no need for any individual person to be in a panic. But each of us as individuals deciding to act now for the greater good is hugely important. Denial and minimizing the population risk isn’t particularly helpful.