Attendance in this economy? Really????

[DanenRox]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there are TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September, are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

 

[Inkmahm]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there is TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

I guess it depends on what they predicted for THIS year. If they were predicting 5's and 6's, then the answer is no. They are not predicting more crowds in the coming year.

 

[mom2grace]

We were at WDW last week, and the local news was saying that tourism is about to be hit hard in central FL, the Europeans and South Americans are beginning to stay home, as well as the Americans.

I spoke to some Europeans in various lines, and they all said it's going to be much worse in Europe than in the US and travel will be way down.

 

[OneMoreTry]

This may mean DISCOUNTS.
Disney usually discounts resorts and not park tickets for the "general public."
Maybe they won't see us as the general public and throw us a park ticket "bone." I would bite.

 

[disneynutz]

Disney for a lot of folks is a pre-paid vacation. Arrangements were made months ago so they will still attend. Next year is when you will really see a slow down for cash Guests.

DVC will not be hit as hard on reservations but you will continue seeing people selling their contracts at low prices just to get rid of them.

That other website will update their projections when better information becomes available.

 

[DanenRox]

That other website will update their projections when better information becomes available.

That's what I'm guessing....I guess....because times of the year that routinely score low on crowd predictors are now higher across the board - across the months for that matter.

 

[jpolak]

I think when the balance of their vacation payment is due some people may have to cancel their trips. It's easy to book a vacation and make a small deposit, but paying the balance, getting airfare, and bringing spending money is very different ballgame.

 

[eliza61]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)

• -Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
• -Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
• -Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
• -Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.

I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

 

[Coach81]

Forgive me for being so selfish, and perhaps even mean, but I for one am looking forward to perhaps lower park populations for the 2 perhaps 3 trips we have planned for next calendar year. I will not miss some of the european people and their chants and flags at all. The yelling and chanting often scared my youngest, and was uncalled for imo.

Lower crowds in '09.. sounds great

 

[wendyinoc]

I think there is a delay when it comes to travel. Most have been planning at least 6 months out. I also believe Europe still helps Disneyworld. With our dollar being low its cheapter to visit the U.S.

 

[dcfromva]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there are TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September, are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

So are you going to share with us, which two days should we all plan to go?

 

[spiceycat]

well when you consider that this year 1,2 or 3 were not on the charts - they are definitely saying less people will be there.

they had very few 4's this year.

lots of 9 and 10's this year.

the days when Sept or Dec were empty are gone. Disney has made it a popular destination no matter when. that say the higher crowds in springs - except for easter and palm, are less. so you can actually go in spring - just avoid when the locals have off for their spring break and you will be okay.

the food/wine have made Oct/nov very popular.

for april/may they had the flower/garden - think it is the lessor crowds in spring that disney made it to go March. (which before the last couple of years did not need any encouragement to be crowded)

It is definitely lovely in spring.

so if you are trying to find a time where WDW is not crowded - best bid is still Sept. May (unless mother days or memorial week) is okay too

 

[Brian Noble]

The time periods I am familiar with (late Feburary, late May) are both rated as lower crowds in 2009 than 2008.

Remember; that scale is calibrated to the maximum wait time at the three MK Mountains. A "4" means wait times never exceed 44 minutes at those attractions, even in the peak of the afternoon crowd. A 3 would be 34 minutes.

A day in MK when Space standby never gets to 45 minutes is a pretty darn good day.

 

[Chellymouse]

Interesting. Our friends are coming with us next Aug. and WDW is going to be $1000-$1500 LESS EXPENSIVE than their annual trip to Ocean Isle NC for the same amount of days and flying instead of driving. Their beach house rental is $2200 alone, not including gas to get there and back, all of their groceries and activities. It's costing them $1600 for park tickets and DDP and we are currently watching airfare, which is starting to drop. Disney is $ for $ a good choice for vacation. I just hope that us loyal DVCers get a bone thrown to us.

 

[BEASLYBOO]

We just got back from AKV Oct 16-Oct 19 and the resorts, hotels, restaurants, parks (including Universal) weren't crowded at all. We were truly surprised. The private schools were out but not public, so that may have affected crowds. Even without reservations our party of four got in without fuss. Jiko was near to empty one evening. I wonder what crowd rating the October period got?

 

[Brian Noble]

I just hope that us loyal DVCers get a bone thrown to us.

Don't hold your breath. Disney already has your money. There are many upsides to "prepaid vacations", but this is not one of them.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Don't hold your breath. Disney already has your money. There are many upsides to "prepaid vacations", but this is not one of them.

It would really depend on whether or not Disney could make any money off of us, and how desperate they are for patrons. What if we got free park admission IF we purchased the dining plan?

I would think a bunch of DVC guest going to the parks for free and then coming back to the rooms to cook food bought off site would be the worst possible scenario for Disney. (I've already seen DISSERS talk about the $0 trip to WDW between APs and DVC.)

If we aren't there, Disney can shut down complete villas for OKW or whole floors at BWV.

 

[DeeCee735]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)

• -Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
• -Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
• -Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
• -Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.

I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

I just priced out our January trip and I was SHOCKED to find that I need to budget over $3500 for 5 nights - this is with park tickets for my adult kids and the basic DDP, cab fares on the couple of occasions we won't use buses, tip $$, a festive dinner to celebrate a special occasion at Yachtsman Steakhouse (not using the DDP for that, using AP DDE), a supermarket visit for a few items, and RT car service for the airport, also just a couple hundred for spending money. Add in the airfare and we're up around $4500 I'm thinking this is alot for 5 people 5 days.....I think we'll curtail our visits and go less often after the two trips I've got booked.

 

[MARY-IN-OH]

So are you going to share with us, which two days should we all plan to go?

the number is park specific, so us dis veterans can usually figure them out pretty closely. As in avoiding EMH parks, watching for when special events are taking place like the Christmas or Halloween party or Star Wars weekends, etc. But to answer your question, you should go to DHS on Tues 12/16/08, and you should go to MK or DHS on Wed. 12/17/08.
-mary

 

[disneynutz]

I just priced out our January trip and I was SHOCKED to find that I need to budget over $3500 for 5 nights - this is with park tickets for my adult kids and the basic DDP, cab fares on the couple of occasions we won't use buses, tip $$, a festive dinner to celebrate a special occasion at Yachtsman Steakhouse (not using the DDP for that, using AP DDE), a supermarket visit for a few items, and RT car service for the airport, also just a couple hundred for spending money. Add in the airfare and we're up around $4500 I'm thinking this is alot for 5 people 5 days.....I think we'll curtail our visits and go less often after the two trips I've got booked.

Buy 10 day no expiration tickets at a discounter and use them for two trips. Use DME and cut out the car service. Rent a car for one day to do your grocery shopping. Delete DDP and use TIW and cook in the villa.

Disney is getting ready for the slow down. Extended AP room discounts, bounce back cruise offerings, extended free dining.

It would be nice if DVC would offer some discounts for current members but I doubt it. Once you buy, they know that they have you.

I expect to see additional sales incentives as the market slows and they miss their projections.