Attack of the Lakeshore Lodge

[davidhr]

Anyone have some guesses as to when they might announce (re-announce) Reflections?

Of course I'm still waiting for them to tell us when the Skyliner will be down for refurbishment in January (or if it will), and that's two months out now, so I'm not hopeful of any kind of really early announcement at this point.

My guess is Q1 next year. Just a guess, I have nothing to back that up lol

 

[CastAStone]

I’d bet considerably longer for a river country resort announcement, if it is in fact DVC. They have a lot of things to sell right now.

Unless it is in fact tied in with CFW (I’m still skeptical) in which case they will probably want to announce it as soon as legally possible.

 

[tx911]

if it is in fact DVC..

Bite your tongue!

 

[Paul Stupin]

I’d bet considerably longer for a river country resort announcement, if it is in fact DVC. They have a lot of things to sell right now.

Unless it is in fact tied in with CFW (I’m still skeptical) in which case they will probably want to announce it as soon as legally possible.

I’d bet much longer as well. Why risk convincing prospective buyers to wait for a new Magic Kingdom resort that’s years away, when they want them to plunk down money right now for the Island Tower?

Also, I’m not sure tying Reflections to CFW would be an effective sales strategy. Though the resulting accounting might conceivably benefit Disney financially, hard to imagine that folks interested in Reflection’s accommodations and amenities would jump at a chance to bypass all the luxury and book the more rustic cabins next door.

 

[davidhr]

I don’t think we, DVC owners/prospective buyers, are known for our patience.

I doubt most interested in DVC today will wait a few years.

Also most impulse buyers won’t even know there’s a new resort being built. Reflections site isn’t really visible for most visitors.

 

[jcolvin5]

Also most impulse buyers won’t even know there’s a new resort being built. Reflections site isn’t really visible for most visitors.

That's a solid point. DVC has had to break ground/begin construction on IT for all to see from day 1. Hard to hide the elephant in the room. Reflections, or whatever they end up calling it, will continue to be very blue sky for much longer for most visitors.

 

[Mikey15]

That's a solid point. DVC has had to break ground/begin construction on IT for all to see from day 1. Hard to hide the elephant in the room. Reflections, or whatever they end up calling it, will continue to be very blue sky for much longer for most visitors.

I mean, I’ve heard the stories of how Bay Lake Tower, an impossible-to-hide addition to the skyline, was not formally acknowledged until it was nearly at the point PIT is now

 

[CraigInPA]

I mean, I’ve heard the stories of how Bay Lake Tower, an impossible-to-hide addition to the skyline, was not formally acknowledged until it was nearly at the point PIT is now

I recall riding the monorail and the voiceover saying that the "new tower at the Contemporary Resort" would add "exciting new accommodations", but nothing about the fact that it was a DVC property. Then, a year later, hearing the voiceover say "Our newest Disney Vacation Club resort". At that point, it was almost complete.

 

[zavandor]

What do you think, will it be a mixed use resort like the original Reflection, or 100% DVC?

 

[tjkraz]

What do you think, will it be a mixed use resort like the original Reflection, or 100% DVC?

Unless there are massive design changes, a 900 room DVC tower is rather unprecedented.

On the other hand, DVC seems to be really leaning into the idea that they can rent unsold villas for cash for years and year, and not really worry about how long it takes to sell out. So who knows?

 

[maui22]

Unless there are massive design changes, a 900 room DVC tower is rather unprecedented.

On the other hand, DVC seems to be really leaning into the idea that they can rent unsold villas for cash for years and year, and not really worry about how long it takes to sell out. So who knows?

Tim, any thoughts on why DVC has so many more points declared than sold at Riviera?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-in-september-2024-as-buyers-await-polynesian
Wil's data shows 4,780,415 points sold

https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/riv...5-more-vacation-homes-for-riviera-s-inventory
Latest declaration brings the declared points to 5,817,509

While there are certainly sales in progress, so it's under a 1 million point difference.

Wouldn't Disney want fewer Riviera declared points if they are renting unsold Riviera villas for cash?
Just my thought, but would like to hear other peoples thoughts:

• Excess declared at Riviera might be a marketing tool. More owners stay there, so DVD tries to sell points to them. Is this the approach other timeshares take?
• If people use points from other resorts, it frees up inventory at their resorts. Wouldn't Disney rent those out for cash?

 

[Disney.dad]

Tim, any thoughts on why DVC has so many more points declared than sold at Riviera?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-in-september-2024-as-buyers-await-polynesian
Wil's data shows 4,780,415 points sold

https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/riv...5-more-vacation-homes-for-riviera-s-inventory
Latest declaration brings the declared points to 5,817,509

While there are certainly sales in progress, so it's under a 1 million point difference.

Wouldn't Disney want fewer Riviera declared points if they are renting unsold Riviera villas for cash?
Just my thought, but would like to hear other peoples thoughts:

• Excess declared at Riviera might be a marketing tool. More owners stay there, so DVD tries to sell points to them. Is this the approach other timeshares take?
• If people use points from other resorts, it frees up inventory at their resorts. Wouldn't Disney rent those out for cash?

Marketing tool and they end up with points from other resorts to rent out for cash to spread out their inventory.

 

[tjkraz]

Tim, any thoughts on why DVC has so many more points declared than sold at Riviera?

DVC seems to project its declarations months in advance, when allocating inventory between cash and points bookings. In other words, right now (November 2024) DVC needs to know how many points / villas it will have available to owners as far out as October 2025. If they didn't do that, they run the risk of renting too many rooms to cash guests throughout 2025.

The annual budgets are also based upon the number of units they expect to have in the association throughout the year.

If you follow that logic, Riviera declarations made now are the result of sales projections from late 2023. As far back as December 2023, DVC probably began accepting points reservations for 86% of rooms with check-ins November 2024 onward. (And only allowing 14% to be booked by cash guests.) Regardless of DVC sales, they had to make sure that 86% of the points were in the condo association.

Why the excess inventory? The simplest answer is that DVC may not have sold quite as many Riviera points as they projected over the past 11-12 months. With Grand Floridian, they put all 202 rooms from Big Pine Key in the association before it even opened, and it took another year and a half to sell out.

 

[ehh]

Wouldn't Disney want fewer Riviera declared points if they are renting unsold Riviera villas for cash?

They can, and do, rent rooms from declared inventory at all resorts (except VGC), so I don't think 'not declared' vs. 'declared but not sold' status makes a meaningful difference in what they end up renting out. They're even allowed to forecast what points owners will use, so the 1mil in 'declared but not sold' doesn't even need to be a nuisance to manage, I'd think.

They definitely could be using the 'declared but not sold' points to bolster points-bookable inventory, though, as a tool to do two things:

1. Increase availability at 7m, as a marketing tool to get non-owners to book a stay at RIV and ultimately want to buy.
   • Though with how difficult Tower Studios and SV Deluxe Studios can be to book at 11m at certain times of year, I'm not sure of the efficacy of this
   • If there were overt drops of inventory at 7m, I would suspect this more, but there aren't
2. Increase availability at 11m, as a marketing tool to avoid a reputation that the resort is difficult to book for owners. Maybe they have data from CCV that showed the 'hard to book' reputation hurt sales.

Though I agree with @tjkraz that the most likely scenario is that their post-VGF sales fell short of forecasts, and forecasts set the declaration schedule.

 

[Mikey15]

More undeclared inventory than sold = more inventory that can be booked by eligible owners of other resorts at 7mo

I agree with the idea that getting other DVC owners to Riv to experience it could be a sales strategy. “While you’re here, add on!” That works in the standard timeshare industry though they’re a lot pushier about it

 

[bdphill22]

Scott Gustin is reporting it's officially back on...

"NEW: Disney Vacation Club says Disney Lakeshore Lodge will open in 2027 within the same footprint of the previously announced Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge resort."

"Disney says the resort will be "inspired by the majesty of nature and its enduring influence on Disney artists.""

https://twitter.com/x/status/1861428083112153491

 

[davidhr]

I need to start saving. Now.

 

[CastAStone]

They could not possibly have provided less information while still saying something.

 

[CastAStone]

The name is a huge improvement though.

Plus The owners will save a few nickels on printing and signage.

 

[davidhr]

So, how are we going to call it? LLR?