Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[xuxa777]

It takes A LOT to close the US parks. With the measles outbreak in Southern CA, Disneyland didn't close. WDW has only closed for hurricanes a handful of times and on 9/11.

They have already closed 3 parks, but I agree not in the US, plus with measles their is/was a vaccine.

 

[rteetz]

They have already closed 3 parks, but I agree not in the US, plus with measles their is/was a vaccine.

All three of those resorts disney is not the majority owner. There is a lot at play in terms of management of those resorts.

 

[tlmadden73]

I realize this virus is spreading (which just seems inevitable due to how easily we can travel), but I feel all we get are NUMBERS (X cases, Y deaths) from the media.

I mean ... how bad is it? If an average adult does get this, what is the symptoms? How long does it last? (Is it just like a flu or is it you have to be hospitalized?)

I feel .. traveling during the Flu season is a risk, but tons of people still do it. My family had the flu traveling to WI and back at Christmas ..try as we might .. we probably spread it to some people on the car journey north and back.

(Oddly I didnt catch it in December ..but caught it months later back home) ..

So I feel like -- just be extra diligent with hand washing ... and maybe (if elderly) take extra precautions.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

H1N1 had a case fatality rate of .01-.08%. Present COVID-19 case fatality rate is over 3%.

Yeah this. The general public are really bad at understanding exponential growth and percentages. The constant statements of "The flu kills 'x' people!" or "H1N1 killed 'y' people!" are just irrelevant. People also think that 2 or 3 percent is a low number and means it won't happen to them. It's not and it can. 2 and 3 percent chances happen 2 and 3 percent of the time. These logical fallacies are why people have so much trouble comprehending how bad something like this is. This thing has the potential to kill far far far more people than either the seasonal flu or H1N1, because of exponential growth and it's mortality rate.

 

[JaxDad]

I realize this virus is spreading (which just seems inevitable due to how easily we can travel), but I feel all we get are NUMBERS (X cases, Y deaths) from the media.

I mean ... how bad is it? If an average adult does get this, what is the symptoms? How long does it last? (Is it just like a flu or is it you have to be hospitalized?)

I feel .. traveling during the Flu season is a risk, but tons of people still do it. My family had the flu traveling to WI and back at Christmas ..try as we might .. we probably spread it to some people on the car journey north and back.

(Oddly I didnt catch it in December ..but caught it months later back home) ..

So I feel like -- just be extra diligent with hand washing ... and maybe (if elderly) take extra precautions.

So, based on what I have seen here and throughout the media (social and otherwise), I think the answers to your question "how bad is it?" would range from "it's really nothing to worry about" to "it makes the plague look like the sniffles."

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Plus, the trends are still not pointing to anywhere near 500k deaths like H1N1 (Knock on wood).

This is true, but only because the trends are pointing to much larger numbers of deaths worldwide. The WHO estimates that 60-70 percent of the World's population could get this over the next two years. At a 2 percent mortality rate that would be 90 million dead. At a 1 percent mortality rate that would be 45 million dead.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Yes, the current death rate for COVID-19 (2-3.5%) is much much higher than H1N1 but do we think this spreads to anywhere near 60m people?

The R0 for swine flu was 1.5. The R0 for Covid-19 is estimated to be 3-4.5. So, yes, Covid-19 is more infectious than H1N1 and will likely spread to more people. It is also far more deadly.

 

[mckennarose]

my travel insurance company is denying all claims due to Covid-19 even with their “cancel anytime” product

Which company is this?

 

[Brianstl]

Which company is this?

As for as I know every travel insurance policy has language stating that they won't pay out for epidemics and pandemics.

 

[brent02139]

This is true, but only because the trends are pointing to much larger numbers of deaths worldwide. The WHO estimates that 60-70 percent of the World's population could get this over the next two years. At a 2 percent mortality rate that would be 90 million dead. At a 1 percent mortality rate that would be 45 million dead.

I think it was a Hong Kong Professor, Dr. Gabriel Leung that said 60%. In fact, WHO disputes that estimate.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...onavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population
but yes, if 60% get's it and it's 2-3% mortality, it will make the H1N1 look like a blip.

 

[clarker99]

This is true, but only because the trends are pointing to much larger numbers of deaths worldwide. The WHO estimates that 60-70 percent of the World's population could get this over the next two years. At a 2 percent mortality rate that would be 90 million dead. At a 1 percent mortality rate that would be 45 million dead.

Why are we spreading FUD? If 90m people or more are gonna die, why isn't the world shut down? An older age demographic and people with compromised immune systems are most risk of death, NOT everyone. Young, healthy people are not dropping dead. Again, the lack of context on things is unfair.

 

[QueenElinor]

why isn't the world shut down

Because more people would die if THAT happened than because of the coronavirus. That's why the WHO has never been in favor of travel bans, and never will be.

The US can have a travel ban, we're not at huge risk of losing essential goods and services.

Many other can't- they can't even grow enough food to feed themselves. I hate to think of the economies of poorer countries who depend on tourism. For us, it's a canceled vacation. For them, it could mean no food on the table. The Caribbean countries are really in for a rough ride. I saw a similar thing happen in the recession of 2008-2009- resorts were cold-calling us with great deals to get us to come back. A hiccup for the developed world can cause catastrophe for those who depend on them.

And, for many of these countries, it's not going to make a difference. Their health care infrastructure can't provide care on a good day. The faster the virus sweeps through, the faster those countries can recover.

 

[travelgirl77]

You simply cannot compare the two viruses. You just cannot. The mortality rate for H1N1 is low now...now that we have historical data. It is absolutely impossible to assign a concrete mortality rate to Covid-19 because numbers are constantly in flux and they do not completely understand the virus, how it may lay dormant, the levels of severity, etc. It is just not an apples to apples comparison...and that goes either way...saying it is the same as OR saying it is far more deadly. Most experts agree that the cases of Covid-19 have been widely under-counted because so many people have such mild symptoms or no symptoms. At the end of the day, do what you can for yourself and others, and wash your hands correctly, stay home if ill, and CALL your doctor if you feel like you have respiratory symptoms.

 

[travelgirl77]

You simply cannot compare the two viruses. You just cannot. The mortality rate for H1N1 is low now...now that we have historical data. It is absolutely impossible to assign a concrete mortality rate to Covid-19 because numbers are constantly in flux and they do not completely understand the virus, how it may lay dormant, the levels of severity, etc. It is just not an apples to apples comparison...and that goes either way...saying it is the same as OR saying it is far more deadly. Most experts agree that the cases of Covid-19 have been widely under-counted because so many people have such mild symptoms or no symptoms. At the end of the day, do what you can for yourself and others, and wash your hands correctly, stay home if ill, and CALL your doctor if you feel like you have respiratory symptoms.

Additionally, if you look back at H1N1, there have been arguments to actually update the mortality figures because A. they believe a lot more people died than were reported and B. so many people who died from H1N1 were young which was a surprise and contrary to how most influenza viruses operate. So, there is an argument that mortality figures should be updated to include the loss of years due to the young population impacted by H1N1. Seemingly, the inverse of what is happening here.

 

[acebatonfan]

You simply cannot compare the two viruses. You just cannot. The mortality rate for H1N1 is low now...now that we have historical data. It is absolutely impossible to assign a concrete mortality rate to Covid-19 because numbers are constantly in flux and they do not completely understand the virus, how it may lay dormant, the levels of severity, etc. It is just not an apples to apples comparison...and that goes either way...saying it is the same as OR saying it is far more deadly. Most experts agree that the cases of Covid-19 have been widely under-counted because so many people have such mild symptoms or no symptoms. At the end of the day, do what you can for yourself and others, and wash your hands correctly, stay home if ill, and CALL your doctor if you feel like you have respiratory symptoms.

This^. H1N1, if I'm remembering, was more contact-based transmission. COVID-19 is like influenza (contact and droplet-based) as well as some concerns of some airborne transmission. It's going to be more contagious, and it'll be hard to diagnose because so much of it is influenza-like symptoms. At my work, we give patients a respiratory panel and influenza panel if they got respiratory symptoms, but COVID-19 isn't included (what's to say that cough and runny nose is coronavirus versus the common cold?). The big thing now is general prevention - hand washing, coughing etiquette, avoiding the public if you're sick.

Don't get me started on people not using n95 masks correctly... You're using it stupidly, giving yourself almost no protection if the mask doesn't fit your face, and you're causing a shortage for facilities that need it.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

This thread title should really be updated, something like "Multiple Disney Parks closed around the world due to Coronavirus," or at least "All Disney's Asia Parks closed due to Coronavirus," now that it's no longer just the China parks that are closed.

 

[anthony2k7]

This thread title should really be updated, something like "Multiple Disney Parks closed around the world due to Coronavirus," or at least "All Disney's Asia Parks closed due to Coronavirus," now that it's no longer just the China parks that are closed.

Agree, done.

 

[DLgal]

my travel insurance company is denying all claims due to Covid-19 even with their “cancel anytime” product. We booked our trip almost a year ago and thought we’d be good, but nope. nowhere we’re traveling is shut down yet anyway, but it is a stressful watch and wait situation for sure.

Uh, just make up another reason. Say your work revoked your time off request. Easy peasy.

 

[Krandor]

This is true, but only because the trends are pointing to much larger numbers of deaths worldwide. The WHO estimates that 60-70 percent of the World's population could get this over the next two years. At a 2 percent mortality rate that would be 90 million dead. At a 1 percent mortality rate that would be 45 million dead.

I don't know all the details about the virus but it is clear the WHO and CDC are concerned and they are the experts. If this was nothing to worry about they would be out there saying that and they are not. That tells me way more the comparing this virus to the flu or to H1N1. Those are the people who have all the data and the experts and likely have lots of models on this thing. They are not out there saying don't worry about anything. Instead WHO has declared this a "public health emergency of international concern".

 

[Thecouch]

I know in Australia about half travel insurance cover pandemic if you bought it before it was a known event (jan20 to 31st depending on company) . Of them about 1/3 only cover medical and flights home. Others also cover cancel and amendments but only of our government list the country as do not travel which at moment is only Iran and China. I've seen a few that have cancel for any reason but only covers for things purchased with in 48hrs of purchased of policy