I think that there will be big changes by 2020, just as their were big changes from 2000 - 2010. Right now, we see a growing gap between the working poor and the very wealthy. I predict that the middle class is not really going to exist any more. Therefore, the businesses that will survive are those that offer affordable and discounted products (Target, Dollar Store, etc.) and those that cater to the wealthy (Mercedes-Benz, etc.). So, that means a whole slew of businesses will disappear. Here are my predictions:
1. Chain Restaurants - And I say, "Good riddance!" For awhile there, there was a quite a trend of restaurants opening up that basically had the same menu as every other restaurant and the food came frozen and was basically heated up on the premises. I think you'll see people return to their local diners and more affordable fast food options. So, places like Applebees, Chili's, etc. will be gone by the wayside.
2. Home Building Centres - Businesses like Home Depot will fold when people choose to spend their money on less frivalous things than remodelling their houses every other month.
3. Electronics Stores - While you'll always have people who feel they need to have electronic gadgets and the latest this-and-that, these people will opt to order such things directly from the internet, not needing to see these items before purchase. This means
Best Buy will be gone by the wayside and, I'd go so far as to say, long before 2020.
4. Celebrity Endorsed Products - There was a time when people simply had to have pots recommended by Jamie Oliver or towels from Rachel Ray, but that time is ending. People are realizing that they can get virtually the same products for much cheaper. So a lot of these lines will simply dissolve.
5. Specialty Stores - Stores that focus on any item that can be purchased at a department or discount store will close up shop. Think of places like Hallmark, Bed Bath & Beyond, etc.
6. American Car Dealerships - They are just hanging on by a thread. This one's a no-brainer.
7. Fad Programs - Weight loss and fitness programs have a very short shelf life. Programs like Jenny Craig are past their prime already. So, I'm predicting that all of these will expire with the expection of Weight Watchers which just can't be killed due to its long history and constant rebranding.
8. Outdated Technology - I agree with the article that Palm is pretty much done for. And I would add Blackberry to that list. I think Apple owns this market. AOL and MSN's days are numbered as well.
9. Print Media - I think that you will still have your small town newspapers because the internet hasn't really replaced the type of "news" (i.e. gossip) you can find in there. However, major newspapers that write stories easily available already online are simply biding their time. This is true for a number of magazines too. The ones aimed at an older generation of non-internet savvy folks will stay around while others will die a slow death. TV Guide is sure to be the first on the chopping block. It still amazes me how it stays in business.
10. Book Stores - No need to debate whether Barnes and Noble or Borders is better. They are both going down the tubes. Amazon.com has already secured its place at the top when it comes to books. There will still be some small bookstores but these major chains will be gone.
II have always wonder how does Toys R Us stays open during the year. The ones here are ghost tow expect around Christmas time
Three things: 1. Christmas is huge for Toys 'R Us. The business they do at that time of year tides them over the rest of the year. 2. Babies 'R Us is a huge moneymaker. New parents are crazy when it comes to wanting and needing stuff. 3. They have a monopoly on toys. Sure you can buy some at department stores but there are things you cannot easily acquire but in a toy store or on a toy store website. (And they have really embraced the online retail market.) So as long as we continue to have children, Toys 'R Us will be fine.
I absolutely agree with watching movies on small things like iPhones - it seems only kids and teens like to do that. But, I know quite a few that watch on their computer moniters - both movies and TV shows they missed the night before.
I think this is the way of the future for the younger generations. We watch all of our television, movies, etc. on our computer. We don't subscribe to cable or satelite because of it. This is very common among my generation.
I live in Rochester...home of Kodak. While it's not nearly the company it used to be, I'd be shocked if it went under. They're investing in a lot of new technolgy. Not to mention, even before moving here, I've only had Kodak digital cameras. I need a camera that takes good pictures and is simple for me to use. Kodak fits that bill. And quite frankly, when it comes to pictures, I trust the Kodak name. The article is a lot of speculation on Kodak, nothing that was too sound logic (IMO anyway.)
I have to agree with your prediction of Kodak's longevity. I have yet to go into a store and see a digital photo print kiosk owned by any other company. They are still supplying the bulk of paper for this industry. While their is certainly competition for digital cameras, it is still one of the big names.
