AP sales…

[nuhusky123]

I wouldn’t expect to see a slow down until q3 and things to really bite q4.

this assumes the recession kicks in and inflation hangs around but i unfortunately dont see a scenario where we avoid a recession and fix inflation This year

 

[Matty B13]

I think most families have planned summer vacations, that they have saved up for the past 2 years. The slow down in vacation travel won't hit till the fall.

We have a October wedding in Orlando to attend, and are staying at WDW for a long weekend. The price of the rental car has already dropped $100 since I reserved it about a month ago. I'm hoping flights will drop as well, so I can rebook at a cheaper price.

 

[Disney mac]

Many of the people in today’s crowds booked their trips 6 months or more ago. With such far out advance planning, we have not yet seen the effects of the current economy on park attendance. But please keep the info coming. This is good info.

That is true. But the spending is now at Disney springs and I would think that would be the first thing to be hit. And bags and people everywhere.

 

[Madame]

That is true. But the spending is now at Disney springs and I would think that would be the first thing to be hit. And bags and people everywhere.

Yes but these vacationers had $ set aside to spend. Workforce reductions are just beginning (the service industry might not be impacted for a while due to already being understaffed).

So many people, on some of the FB groups I am in live on the edge, paycheque to paycheque but still are going to Disney. Posts about extension on payment until payday, car broke down on the way there & have no credit card - seriously.

I understand academically that people do this. We lived cheque to cheque until my early teens, but never would have gone to Disney (never went anywhere really). Many of these visitors won’t cancel what they have already booked. Fall will eventually show the first impact.

 

[DeeBee3]

Many of the people in today’s crowds booked their trips 6 months or more ago. With such far out advance planning, we have not yet seen the effects of the current economy on park attendance. But please keep the info coming. This is good info.

Strongly agree with this. There will be a period of time before the financial effects of inflation/ cost of living items really sink in.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Many of the people in today’s crowds booked their trips 6 months or more ago. With such far out advance planning, we have not yet seen the effects of the current economy on park attendance. But please keep the info coming. This is good info.

I bet a lot of people that are driving are rethinking their vacations, and are trying to cancel….. 6 month ago gas prices were half of what they are today…

 

[Disney mac]

I bet a lot of people that are driving are rethinking their vacations, and are trying to cancel….. 6 month ago gas prices were half of what they are today…

I 100% agree there is a dip coming if it's not already here. But I see more people starting to drive here than fly. For example, a DVC family from Chicago drives the 1300 miles. If they have that car that gets 25 mpg, they spend $250 to get here and $250 to get home. A car that gets better mpg is even cheaper. Is $500 a lot of money? Sure it is, but that's still way cheaper than flying that same family here at $500 round trip and then having to spend more to get from the airport (Magic Express is going to cost Disney a lot of people IMO).
I get that things cost more and inflation is crazy. My point is I still don't see people driving less, spending less, or planning less. It's a crazy economy where people are getting laid off and yet there is still a massive work hiring shortage. If an economy crash is what it takes for Disney to offer APs again, that concerns me for what they value all of us at. Makes me wonder how people all afford it here at all.....just a strange breed we all are in what we are willing to spend, sacrifice, and do to be a part of the "magic".

 

[Marionnette]

I think revenge travel is still in effect. People may be staring at skyrocketing fuel prices and food scarcity. But they just spent two years postponing that vacation and come hell or high water, they're going to go now and worry about the rest of the world's problems later.

 

[npatellye]

For me if money gets tight I’m more likely to cut out going out and other things then cutting streaming.

Agreed. For us, we would likely cut out other things. Streaming is not a huge expense for us (Prime included with Amazon Prime, Disney+ is a huge hit with my kids so we would definitely keep it). We may cut out DirecTV.

I bet a lot of people that are driving are rethinking their vacations, and are trying to cancel….. 6 month ago gas prices were half of what they are today…

I think more people are likely driving than flying if they live within 24 hours or so. For us, flying (family of 4) and renting a car at MCO for our trip is over $2700 currently. We can drive our minivan down there and back for under $600 in gas. Even if we rent a vehicle here and drive down, it’s still under $1600 round trip. That’s less than the cost of our airfare and checked luggage right now.

 

[nuhusky123]

I share as a data point on why Disney attendance will decline. A study conducted by breeze.

Where are they cutting their budgets? Breeze has data on that issue, as well. This is from its study:


73% of US households have cut back on restaurants/takeout, 63% on consumer spending, 62% on social spending, 57% on groceries, 54% on vacation, 44% on gas, and 35% on debt payments


75% are worried about providing food for themselves and their families, while 93% are intentionally driving less to save gas money, and 87% have cancelled vacation plans


63% are struggling to pay their mortgage or rent, with 31% saying their ability to make payments is "already a very serious problem," and 30% saying it will be a problem in just 1-3 months


54% are struggling to pay supplemental insurance premiums, with 77% considering cancelling some of their coverage


47% have increased their credit card usage, while 39% have increased their BNPL usage


67% said the current state of the economy has negatively impacted their mental health, while 81% said inflation has made them more stressed then usual


52% are worried about their job security

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

.

 

[nuhusky123]

We are just finishing Q3 right now. Disney starts their financial year October 1st.
Q1 Oct - Dec
Q2 Jan - Mar
Q3 Apr - Jun. (Actually, it ends about July 6th. Their quarters do not match monthly calendars exactly.)
Q4 Jul - Sep

But I understood you meant the late fall 2022 time frame. By definition, a recession lasts at least two quarters before it is declared. So, it appears we are already in the (pre-declaration stage) of the recession right now.

Yeah I was going by calendar not their fiscal. So I’d say by Sept id wager attendance is going to start really dipping

agreed, not declared recession yet. Soon

 

[New Mouse]

It’s interesting in talking to people here that everyone says how expensive it is, yet the packs and springs are crowded as busy as I’ve ever seen for this time of year. As much as I hate it, demand is insanely high, and supply is low…why would Disney ever sell AP in this climate? People are just making it harder to justify Selling APs.
I truly was stunned at the lines to get into the polite pig (about 100 people long) and World of Disney was a sea of humanity. Earl of Sandwich had over 50 people in line. I get inflation prices are high and gas is Ridiculous….
But people have not changed any habits yet here.

Why sell aps? Because it's a hedge against the time when people stop coming. Simply turning it on 2 to 3 years from now doesn't work. It's the ongoing brand loyalty which brings in more money than those one off visitors. It also helps buffer your cash cow in dvc.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

Why sell aps? Because it's a hedge against the time when people stop coming. Simply turning it on 2 to 3 years from now doesn't work. It's the ongoing brand loyalty which brings in more money than those one off visitors. It also helps buffer your cash cow in dvc.

Absolutely. If we know a hurricane is coming tomorrow, I don't say "No way, it's sunny today!". Everyone can see that a recession is coming and the smart thing would be to sell AP's while there is still strong demand. I'm not convinced Chapek will do the smart thing though.

 

[New Mouse]

Absolutely. If we know a hurricane is coming tomorrow, I don't say "No way, it's sunny today!". Everyone can see that a recession is coming and the smart thing would be to sell AP's while there is still strong demand. I'm not convinced Chapek will do the smart thing though.

The irony of any major corporate CEOs role is that whether they fail or whether they do the right thing and succeed, they will still make more than all of us in a single year of work. There's little actual incentive or punishment when salaries start getting that big.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[Ms Bibbidi]

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[artesian]

Yes, the dollar is strong compared to the pound.

At the current exchange rate, Brits (WDW’s #1 overseas visitors) are seeing an extra 20% in cost.

Add in Disney’s recent price hikes and across the board inflation, and U.K. Guests are going to experience a massive price hike for their WDW vacations.

During our last stay at Universal, we met a large contingent from Scotland who skipped WDW entirely because WDW was so much more expensive. Since Universal multi-day tickets and hotels cost so much less, they switched to a Universal only trip.

It's not just international visitors doing this either. Last 6 day trip I did the unthinkable and only did 3 days in WDW and spent the rest of the time in Uni. Fam discussed that going forward we may now entertain getting season passes there and possible Sea worlrd/Busch. I keep saying Disney is pushing the envelope on pricing. I'm under the scholl of thought after the 50th celebration Dis will need to start to bring back APs and discounting to get people back.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I 100% agree there is a dip coming if it's not already here. But I see more people starting to drive here than fly. For example, a DVC family from Chicago drives the 1300 miles. If they have that car that gets 25 mpg, they spend $250 to get here and $250 to get home. A car that gets better mpg is even cheaper. Is $500 a lot of money? Sure it is, but that's still way cheaper than flying that same family here at $500 round trip and then having to spend more to get from the airport (Magic Express is going to cost Disney a lot of people IMO).
I get that things cost more and inflation is crazy. My point is I still don't see people driving less, spending less, or planning less. It's a crazy economy where people are getting laid off and yet there is still a massive work hiring shortage. If an economy crash is what it takes for Disney to offer APs again, that concerns me for what they value all of us at. Makes me wonder how people all afford it here at all.....just a strange breed we all are in what we are willing to spend, sacrifice, and do to be a part of the "magic".

Or like most of the well to do families that have and Escalade or suburban …..
And it gets 18 miles per gallon…..and I was in chicago recently and there was closer to 6 bucks a gallon….

Also I don’t know if you have ever driven 1300 miles but that pretty much ruins any vacation for me, and I’m sure I’m not alone in that…..

Then to have to do it again…. You would spend 4 days of driving getting to and from Florida.

 

[tjkraz]

It's not just international visitors doing this either. Last 6 day trip I did the unthinkable and only did 3 days in WDW and spent the rest of the time in Uni.

That sort of behavior is nothing new. New to you, perhaps. But there are always some guests who choose to split a trip between WDW and other Orlando-area entertainment. (My family spent some time in Universal in 2020 but not in '21, '22, 23...) The question is whether Disney begins losing overall market share, and that's data we'll never be able to fully access.

Disney will never undergo any massive price shift, suggesting that mistakes were made. They'll nibble at the edges with hotel discounts, bring back dining plans / free dining, ticket discounts for locals. They've done special ticket offers for DVC in the past, special dining and shopping discounts, etc. They may be forced to delay scheduled price increases. But over time, the economy will improve and business will catch up to the prices.

Specific to APs, I don't believe that Disney will abandon yearly passes but the format may change. Whatever they decide in the near term, I don't expect it to be a knee jerk response to the current state of the economy. The economy may help spur them into action, but the terms of any new AP program will be something Disney feels it can live with today and into the distant future.