AP sales…

[Sandisw]

So this had nothing to do with guest safety, but rather Disney's greed.

From what I remember, the park reservation system had been an idea long before the pandemic, but was finalized to limit capacity once they reopened, based on state and federal guidelines as well as other factors. They never published what capacity was, but in the month or two after re-opening, there were definitely days that sold out for all ticket types.

However, how many spots they allowed into the buckets for certain ticket types was definitely something geared toward profit. What got them in trouble was selling AP's that had no block out dates, but then limiting the number of reservations in their bucket, while allowing the other buckets to continue to fill, leaving AP holders out in the cold, even though the park had not yet reached the overall capacity total that was in effect...which we now know is going to stay much lower than it had in the past before the pandemic.

 

[kdm31091]

I doubt they discontinue the program entirely. Why spend marketing budget on making new magnets that people stand in line for, etc, if you want them to stop being APs?

 

[CraigInPA]

I do not believe the park reservation system was due to either of those. Upon re-opening with low attendance caps, the reservation system was helpful. But, it appears a main reason for developing it was because Disney collected data showed them that ticketed guests spent more per individual per park day than passholders. Disney developed reservations and the admission allocation bucket system among ticketed guests, resort guests and passholders in an effort to prioritize space for their most profitable guests. (Note: If Disney had done park reservations with a "first come - first serve" it would have been much the same as prior to the pandemic. However, the addition of buckets, solely controlled by the wants of Disney, was the tell tale footprint that shows this was done to reduce passholder attendance in favor of more profitable guest types.) This is discussed in detail earlier in this thread. Now, the reservation system may provide Disney with more data that they need to determine how many annual passes they will have outstanding at any time. The reservation system and the park turnstiles may also give them more data about the effect of park hopping. It is a new age of huge data crunching and Disney is learning a lot about their guests with the new digital information. So, even if Disney gained full staffing, we would continue to see the reservation up through early 2024, and perhaps beyond. Disney seems to treat it as permanent.

Disney stated that their original purpose of the park reservation system was because they were reducing the number of attendees to each park due to social distancing in 2020 after reopening following the 4 month closure (look it up, it's been well reported, the attendance cap was reported as 25%, and the "employee call back" figures were published). This was reinforced at the 2022 Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, as reported by disneydining, "McCarthy (CFO Christine McCarthy) said that the system was necessary as Disney dealt with capacity limitations as the parks reopened. But she says the company realized quickly that the system could continue to be used after those limitations were gone as a tool to “manage attendance.”

And this, precisely, is why Disney will lose the California AP case. Disney can't sell an AP with specific black out dates and then "prioritize" higher revenue guests, thereby creating more black out dates for AP holders, unless they clearly specify that this is the case when the AP is sold. Doing that violates consumer protection laws.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[Mai Ku Tiki]

Having lived in FL for 5 yrs & being AMAZED at the difference in rules, regs, statutes, & laws (or lack thereof) regarding everything + consumer protection compared to my home state, I do wonder if WDW will differ from DL in what the company is allowed to do or forced to do. FL seems very "local" administratively. So many things differ among counties, towns & then communities.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Disney stated that their original purpose of the park reservation system was because they were reducing the number of attendees to each park due to social distancing in 2020 after reopening following the 4 month closure (look it up, it's been well reported, the attendance cap was reported as 25%, and the "employee call back" figures were published). This was reinforced at the 2022 Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, as reported by disneydining, "McCarthy (CFO Christine McCarthy) said that the system was necessary as Disney dealt with capacity limitations as the parks reopened. But she says the company realized quickly that the system could continue to be used after those limitations were gone as a tool to “manage attendance.”

And this, precisely, is why Disney will lose the California AP case. Disney can't sell an AP with specific black out dates and then "prioritize" higher revenue guests, thereby creating more black out dates for AP holders, unless they clearly specify that this is the case when the AP is sold. Doing that violates consumer protection laws.

Manage cost is likely more correct now but that doesn't sound as good. Managing attendance sounds like it might be beneficial for the guests and likely was part of the idea that backfired with the AP issue. From crowded pictures it's difficult to feel like they actually are doing much in actual attendance now. I'll be seeing it in person next week but my overall sense is there's little in the way of a cap. Having an approximate of how many will buy daily tickets upon arrival plus the pre-reservation system in theory allows for better staffing minimums and even purchasing.

 

[nuhusky123]

wdw is bringing back the Minnie van, perhaps we are seeing a return to pre covid offerings. Dare I say ap is soon to follow?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

wdw is bringing back the Minnie van, perhaps we are seeing a return to pre covid offerings. Dare I say ap is soon to follow?

Extended hours. Minnie vans.

Perhaps they've decided they've squeezed as much out of the turnips as they dare without giving a bit back.

 

[RoseGold]

I doubt they discontinue the program entirely. Why spend marketing budget on making new magnets that people stand in line for, etc, if you want them to stop being APs?

I don't think a few hundred bucks in magnets is going to decide anything.

 

[mistysue]

I don't think a few hundred bucks in magnets is going to decide anything.

Agreed, I can't imagine a board meeting when ending APs comes up and the counterpoint is "but who would we give these free magnets to?!?"

 

[lowlight]

Agreed, I can't imagine a board meeting when ending APs comes up and the counterpoint is "but who would we give these free magnets to?!?"

Rumor has it magical express was almost saved because they had just minted some new trading pins.

 

[ScubaCat]

You can see the failure of park reservations when you look at what happens at 2pm, when park hopping begins. I was there at AK last week and saw the park empty, and at Epcot and saw the park become so crowded you could barely walk. I don't know whether Disney has an accurate model of how park hopping affects the various parks, but based upon what I saw, it seems like they do not. They seem to be basing staffing on park reservations (opening to 2pm) and are guessing as to what park attendance will be when park hopping starts at 2pm. I spoke to several other guests who, during the Spring Break period, couldn't get their top choice of park. So, they tapped into the park they were able to get, then park hopped to where they wanted to actually be after 2pm.

On October 1st, they cut off park hopping for a few hours. It can certainly be done, and they obviously have a cap.

Most likely Epcot wasn't anywhere near the allocated capacity, despite it seeming crowded. In fact, I don't recall Epcot ever reaching capacity...... It may have, I'm just not sure other than if it did, it's extremely rare. On a typical NYE, MK hits offsite capacity (meaning the limit to guests not staying on-property) around 10-11am but eventually reopens around 5-6pm after a certain volume leaves. Epcot's just not been a problem due to it's size.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[Maistre Gracey]

wdw is bringing back the Minnie van, perhaps we are seeing a return to pre covid offerings. Dare I say ap is soon to follow?

No. The mini van is revenue enhancing. According to Cheapick AP’s are revenue killers.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

No. The mini van is revenue enhancing. According to Cheapick AP’s are revenue killers.

He should drop the Florida resident pass and replace it with a dvc/onsite pass.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

He should drop the Florida resident pass and replace it with a dvc/onsite pass.

Well, I guess they already did that to some extent for residents. Not sure why they would do that for on site guests as long as they fill rooms, but anything is possible.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[sheilafri]

You are welcome. My views are theories. I do not claim insider information. It is more like an educated guess.

Disney does not want you to discontinue renewing. Disney is not emotionally invested in what individual owns their APs. If they crunch the new data being collected via the park reservation and determine the ideal mix of ticket guests and passholders, and if they have more passholder capacity, they will again offer some kind of passholder product. They invited you to use a discount in early March because that is one of the space available lower attendance periods they wanted passholders to fill. An additional discount is A better management tool than unilaterally making up artificial, additional blockout days! Simple as that. You may see more of those.

Do not let your annual pass expire! I agree!

Can you explain further why you don’t think a person should let their pass expire? Do you think it applies even if eligible for the currently offered pass—Pixie Dust in FL?

 

[mistysue]

Your suggestion contrasts only DVC and onsite hotel room vs Florida residents. Florida residents can also stay in hotel rooms or are DVC members. Likewise, guests who are not local (travel from a distance) may stay in their own 2nd home property, be guests of local family or friends, stay in off-site hotels, Air B&B, RV travelers campsites, military Space-A accommodations at nearby military facilities or other accommodations. For your purposes, let's compare locals (Florida residents) vs travelers, because it is probable that Disney has some legal obligation as a result of real estate planning and development permits under environmental impact requirements. Also, although we do not know the exact numbers, because Disney treats park attendance numbers as proprietary information, let's assume that overall, the daily mix consists of 35% local and 65% travelers. It was 50% travelers immediately after re-opening, but that is when foreign travel was **** down and the mix was skewed by covid impacts domestically. Let's also assume for purposes of this hypothesis that Disney does want to maintain some base of annual passholders because their annual payments are a solid base floor of revenue for Disney and it protects a fan base from which future fan base grows. Now, I really would like to hear some suggestions on going forward with prepaid admissions. Remember, there must be some kind of locals, Florida resident deal. Otherwise, it is wide open for future gate admission; assuming they sunset the current AP program and start from a blank sheet of paper. Also, try not to anger the fan base too much.

The catch is Florida resident pass is the only one it seems likely truly kills revenue.
Locals aren't buying the same level of merchandise (no urgent need to get it today, they can hit resale or come back another day)
Locals are more likely to eat at home or on their way for $5 instead of $70 at a buffet.

If they opened types of passes that required you to be onsite, now they have you locked in. They are making money off of you before you even enter the gates, even though they didn't sell a new pass every trip. They have control over providing needs like food and misc products you pick up on site. Hotel guests buy overpriced batteries, $12 aloe lotion, $5 lemonaid rather than stopping at an off site shop or waiting until they get home.
Locals could buy on-site passes and stay onsite, or they could offer both. But at the root of it the reason APs are a revenue killer is because of locals.

 

[dcfromva]

IMO, while Disney has strong incentives to require a park reservation system (mainly due to staffing, and no longer due to social distancing), the impact on guests is fairly extreme. You can see the failure of park reservations when you look at what happens at 2pm, when park hopping begins. I was there at AK last week and saw the park empty, and at Epcot and saw the park become so crowded you could barely walk....

I do not believe the park reservation system was due to either of those. Upon re-opening with low attendance caps, the reservation system was helpful. But, it appears a main reason for developing it was because Disney collected data showed them that ticketed guests spent more per individual per park day than passholders. Disney developed reservations and the admission allocation bucket system among ticketed guests, resort guests and passholders in an effort to prioritize space for their most profitable guests. (Note: If Disney had done park reservations with a "first come - first serve" it would have been much the same as prior to the pandemic. However, the addition of buckets, solely controlled by the wants of Disney, was the tell tale footprint that shows this was done to reduce passholder attendance in favor of more profitable guest types.) This is discussed in detail earlier in this thread. Now, the reservation system may provide Disney with more data that they need to determine how many annual passes they will have outstanding at any time. The reservation system and the park turnstiles may also give them more data about the effect of park hopping. It is a new age of huge data crunching and Disney is learning a lot about their guests with the new digital information. So, even if Disney gained full staffing, we would continue to see the reservation up through early 2024, and perhaps beyond. Disney seems to treat it as permanent.

I tend to agree. With the exception of one advantage, I don't think the reservation system does much to enhance the guest experience. I'm not even convinced that it necessarily helps Disney determine staffing levels because of the reports of uneven guest experiences (especially on the Disneyland/CA adventure side of things).

The one advantage to the reservation system for guests is you know you will be admitted to the park for which you have a reservation. Disney has always had maximum capacities for their parks. On peak days, you always ran the risk that you would not be admitted and would be turned away. (Although, at Disney World my pre-pandemic experience was there was usually one park that had not reached capacity during peak times--maybe someone could chime in as to whether there have been many times where all the parks reached capacity pre-pandemic?)

Honestly, in all my (pre-pandemic) visits I have never not been able to go into a park at WDW (And, we have gone many times during Christmas/New Years and Spring Break). Maybe the capacity issue has changed substantially. Maybe it hasn't. It's all speculation because we don't have that proprietary information. Maybe there is a lot of pent up demand and that is what is disrupting this?

Anyway, besides (allegedly) targeting the folks that statistically spend the most money, the reservation system also provides a huge cash infusion due to FOMO. You buy non-refundable tickets as soon as you possibly can so that you can make reservations as soon as you possibly can.

In regards to collecting data on annual pass holders, I would be surprised if they didn't already have this data between magic band tracking, annual pass discounts and guest folios, etc. Right now I think the data may be skewed because Disney stopped selling annual passes and some of the folks buying regular passes might have purchased annual passes if given the opportunity and also Disney imposed a limit on how many folks holding annual passes that can go into the parks.