Anyone think a price increase is coming soon with all the buybacks?

JGINPL

Earning My Ears
Joined
Aug 14, 2018
Does anyone think a price increase is coming soon with all the buybacks? There have been quite a bit of SSR and BLT buybacks recently. Does anyone think this could be possibly because there will be a price increase for Direct coming soon? Thanks for your opinions.
 

DebLovesPooh

Mouseketeer
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
I don’t know if price increases are coming, but I think there’s a bigger demand for SSR and BLT in general. Some of the dvc blogs have been saying SSR is most economical for SAP and BLT is the best economical sense for a home near a park.
 

RoseGold

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 21, 2020
The opposite, once foreclosures start again.

You think Disney likes buying SSR at 107? ROFR is their only source of points when there are no foreclosures.
 

StitchesGr8Fan

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 17, 2009
I think it’s more because people don’t want the Riviera and they are trying to prevent people from buying SSR and BLT resale to try and “force” people into Riviera.
 

JGINPL

Earning My Ears
Joined
Aug 14, 2018
The opposite, once foreclosures start again.

You think Disney likes buying SSR at 107? ROFR is their only source of points when there are no foreclosures.
Good point I hadn’t thought of that
 

CastAStone

Model Citizen. Math and business nerd.
Joined
Jun 25, 2019
The opposite, once foreclosures start again.

You think Disney likes buying SSR at 107? ROFR is their only source of points when there are no foreclosures.
The flip side of that is that Disney has little reason to expect substantial foreclosures on SSR, which was on the lower end of foreclosures pre-COVID (on a per point basis, obviously being nearly 2x as large as the next WDW resort it had the 2nd most foreclosures after Poly).

I very much anticipate them raising the price on SSR sooner than later. It’s plain to me that the renovation is being extremely well received and that’s driving demand. I don’t know if they’ll raise the price on all resorts but I bet they’ll raise it on SSR and probably a few others.
 

RoseGold

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 21, 2020
I was thinking resale pricing. Direct pricing always goes up, haha.

I think resale will go down when ROFR cools off.
 

zavandor

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 22, 2011
The SSR preview center at SSR is closed. Tours there focus on selling the current resorts (only Riviera model rooms can be toured there, maybe Aulani?). Since that is closed, DVC does room tours at each resort. This causes people to be more interested in the sold out resorts, which many normally don't even know they're still sold but DVC.
To feed those buys, DVC needs more contracts at sold out resorts And the only way to acquire them is ROFR.
A price increase is coming, as always with DVC, we just don't know when. I don't think there is a correlation between ROFR and price increases.
 

striker1064

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 17, 2018
I don’t know if they’ll raise the price on all resorts but I bet they’ll raise it on SSR and probably a few others.
Interesting thought - has there ever been a price increase on only some resorts, not including when a resort goes to sold-out pricing?
 

CastAStone

Model Citizen. Math and business nerd.
Joined
Jun 25, 2019
Interesting thought - has there ever been a price increase on only some resorts, not including when a resort goes to sold-out pricing?
Yes, more times than not actually since they started pricing resorts at different prices in 2007, however, in the last few increases it’s been everything or just VB left out (VB even got a price decrease once). Certainly you could also see $1-$2 increases on some resorts and $7 increases on others.

Historic pricing:
 

sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
I think it’s more because people don’t want the Riviera and they are trying to prevent people from buying SSR and BLT resale to try and “force” people into Riviera.
Meh people just want a cheap option. Also you have 65% of points being sold out of RIV in October. CCV has another 12% of the contracts with extra discounting in place leading up to selling out.

Finally in October you have OKW/SSR both at 6% and AKV at 4%.

As an example in 2018 (prior to RIV) you had SSR at 4%, OKW at 3%, AKV at 2%, and CCV (only WDW active sale) at 75%. During January and February when Poly was being sold out Poly made up 34% (43% January + 24% February) and CCV only 55% (45% January + 65% February). March CCV jumped to 76% of sales.

So not sure I agree "people don't want the Riviera" when in reality its following fairly well in line with CCV. We will have to see what happens when Disney drops the CCV incentives and label it "sold out" which is coming.
 

sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
I think Disney with buybacks is just going to cash in on anyone willing to buy those resorts. With OKW it actually helps them prepare for 2042 (moving contracts out to 2057) and with SSR its always labeled as "cheapest" so there will always be consistent sales.

I suppose though we could see increases in January with new incentives rolling out that drops RIV/SSR/OKW back down to close but slight more expensive than pricing now.

Anyone buying BCV right now or VGF as an example are not likely to be turned off by an extra $5/point since they likely wouldn't know differently or would be adding on such a small contract it wouldn't change the math much.
 

drusba

I went to Iowa once, and it was closed.
Joined
Aug 19, 1999
There is always a price increase coming when it comes to Disney! lol
And by how much likely depends on how bad the economy actually gets. During the early years of the Great Recession, 2009 to 2012, when the economy was considered to be one of the worst ever and much of the business world ceased increasing prices or wages, inflation was almost non-existent, and the fear was the possibility of deflation, Disney raised many of its restaurant prices by 25%, Annual Passes by 30%, and DVD raised the DVC price per point by 47%.
 
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