Anyone else disappointed with booking lately??

[crisi]

I need to be careful how to say this because I don't want to step on this board. This board only allows owners to post for rent. Others have different policies.

If a renter is looking for an owner, Davids is geared to match points from the renters need perspective. So are other places.

A renter savvy enough to exploit the 11 month window can easily find an owner to match his needs.

I don't think right now anyone who doesn't have a personal source easily finds owners to rent points from. Yes, there are other sources, but owners aren't shopping for renters - they don't look until they decide to rent. The timing isn't there for "just find an owner at eleven months for the Fall." It happens, I just doing think it happens enough to create a significant skew.

David isn't sitting on a ton of owners eleven months out. None of the brokers are. And the brokers seem to be having as much of an issue finding owners for their demand in the Spring as in the Fall - if I decide to rent points through David in July, I won't need to wait until November to book something.

If you are renting direct from an owner who post points for rent in early July, the owner has a choice between "make a reservation in July for next April/May/June or sit around and move on someone's rental in November for October - owners aren't going to do that in numbers to create any sort of skew.

As points enter the rental system - whether through a broker or direct - they get snapped up. If the supply/demand were reversed, you'd see different behavior.

The exception would be spec rentals - where I book a standard view for F&W with my points and let it go to the highest bidder. If I'm an owner doing that, I'm looking for those forth quarter and holiday dates.

Another exception would be a place (not this board) that lets renters post looking for points and willing to bid up. But $14 or $15 a point for an October reservation or $14 or $15 a point for a June one - doesn't matter to the owner.

 

[ziravan]

Where did you get the 90% number? (I would assume it is probably close to accurate). However, PVB is about 4 million points, 3 million of which are the studios (75%)...so 90% of the purchasers compete for 75% of the rooms.

Being outnumbered like 360 to 20, they could only realistically raise the studios at the PVB 1 point per night. To do that, they would have to drop the Bungalows 18 points. they would have to drop the bungalows 36 points a night to add 2...and I doubt that that is going to happen.

Also the rental agencies make it harder to get rooms on short notice. I know people who have discovered the magical savings of renting a DVC room instead of paying cash, and they probably will not pay cash again unless they have to.

In another thread, I looked over all the contracts over 2 separate sample months and found that on average, a little more than 11% of Poly Owners were buying at least 250 points.

If you bank/borrow 250 points, you can stay about 6 nights in bungalows during cheap season every third year.

That's about the minimum number of points possible to routinely take advantage of bungalows. Something like 25% of that group had bought exactly 250 points. Not everyone buying 250 points are buying to use them for bungalows.

I think 10% of owners with enough points to routinely stay at bungalows is a fair estimation. 12% would also be fair and that's the estimate I had used in the prior thread. I think that's a very fair range: 10-12%

 

[hakepb]

The other potential way the system could have compressed inventory is if overall points borrowing exceeds banking.

Especially with the economy going up and down. (It seems more people were in a banking mode in 2009)

 

[MrInfinity]

There's a different way to look at the Bungalows... These are massive point-consumers for people who own cheap points but want to try the Bungalows. There are folks out there with large chunks of points which they got relatively cheap... 320, 500, even more. If you own a big lot at SSR or OKW, and decide to stay a couple nights at a Bungalow, it will drain ~250 points from owners just like that. If they had thrown these 250 pts on the rental market, they would have gone as 12 studio rooms at Poly/BLT/GF/BCV/BWV instead. In this way, the Bungalows are actually a benefit to the overall equation. Looking at availability, there are already some October dates that are fully booked. High-demand times will prevail here too.

And then you have to look at the people who made the big Poly purchases retail. If you bought 250 points @$180, you dropped $45,000. People who can afford to do this are not doing so to transfer-down at 7 months. They bought because they can afford it and will likely stay in Bungalows some of the time.

 

[cedricandsophie]

We have lots of points, over 1400 at 7 resorts, but rarely book at 11 months. We also rarely go during the busiest period. And we never get less than a one bedroom. Last week we booked a one bedroom at wilderness for the week right after thanksgiving with no problem at all. I also just booked a two bedroom st old key west for June for one night before a cruise and a one bedroom st SSR for the same time frame for another part of our group. We go to aulani ever year and because we go in may, we have always been able to get a one bedroom ocean view st 7 months or less. it really depends on when you want to go and what kind of room you want.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We have lots of points, over 1400 at 7 resorts, but rarely book at 11 months. We also rarely go during the busiest period. And we never get less than a one bedroom. Last week we booked a one bedroom at wilderness for the week right after thanksgiving with no problem at all. I also just booked a two bedroom st old key west for June for one night before a cruise and a one bedroom st SSR for the same time frame for another part of our group. We go to aulani ever year and because we go in may, we have always been able to get a one bedroom ocean view st 7 months or less. it really depends on when you want to go and what kind of room you want.

You really enjoy your DVC!

 

[keishashadow]

When I bought a BWV contract back in 2011, it came fully loaded and the owner had already let 2 years worth of points expire just cause they n ever got around to using it. These days it seems like half the contract for sale are stripped and most likely the points rented out. So points are being us ed much more efficiently today than in the past, all of which makes bookings harder.

Absolutely!

Before the point reallocation, when weekends were made pricier, it seemed more difficult to book. Assume locals were making good use of their memberships.

Pandora is the problem. People have been waiting for a long time. This is the biggest thing to happen to wdw since animal kingdom came. So people want to come and come a lot. I haven't been to wdw in over 2 and a half years going June,sep,dec, than next may. Than I will take a year off until Star Wars comes to Hollywood studios. Pandora is a good problem to have thou.

I'm happy to be signed up to enjoy Pandora previews next month but most i know are still scratching their heads as to why the theme was selected. People will take the time to come to see it, whether it's as new guests or they decide to visit AK in lieu of another park twice for a trip already planned. However, only if it's great will they return.

I disagree that this was possible for an October trip which has been busy for ages

I didn't run into being shut out @ the 11 month window for a standard studio @ BWV until SSR was offered. Several times over past few years was initially 'out-walked'. Waitlisting/watching was able to fill in the gaps more times than not.

Heck, I saw a poly owner today on Facebook posting surprise/upset because she just learned there were no 1BRs there. And a lot of people asking how the heck someone bought at Poly without noticing that on point charts.

I'll be charitable and say perhaps she assumed, as in past practice, there would automatically be 1 BRs. Likely, she thought the points necessary to book a week were quite the deal. Could be she never fully looked at the point charts. Certainly an expensive oversight.

 

[Dean]

I agree with Kat

Didn't they also reallocate the the tree house villas as well after they were sold? Also they just created the two SSR categories so now people who bought with the intention of always requesting to stay in the springs/confess park have to pay more now. Any reallocation will have "winners" and "losers". DVC is just supposed to act in the best interest of the resort's owners as a whole.

There is some question that this may have been somewhat purposeful. IMO THV should have been a separate resort. This move certainly hurt those who bought for the THV and did not help the other owners enough to make a difference.

 

[LAX]

I agree with Kat

Didn't they also reallocate the the tree house villas as well after they were sold? Also they just created the two SSR categories so now people who bought with the intention of always requesting to stay in the springs/confess park have to pay more now. Any reallocation will have "winners" and "losers". DVC is just supposed to act in the best interest of the resort's owners as a whole.

I don't disagree. I was merely responding to a post regarding dropping points on the bungalows while raising points on the studios won't be in the "best interest" of most PVB owners. I guess my follow up question is how to determine what's the best interest of the PVB owners as a whole.

LAX

 

[dclpluto]

Absolutely!

Before the point reallocation, when weekends were made pricier, it seemed more difficult to book. Assume locals were making good use of their memberships.



I'm happy to be signed up to enjoy Pandora previews next month but most i know are still scratching their heads as to why the theme was selected. People will take the time to come to see it, whether it's as new guests or they decide to visit AK in lieu of another park twice for a trip already planned. However, only if it's great will they return.



I didn't run into being shut out @ the 11 month window for a standard studio @ BWV until SSR was offered. Several times over past few years was initially 'out-walked'. Waitlisting/watching was able to fill in the gaps more times than not.



I'll be charitable and say perhaps she assumed, as in past practice, there would automatically be 1 BRs. Likely, she thought the points necessary to book a week were quite the deal. Could be she never fully looked at the point charts. Certainly an expensive oversight.

A lot of people who rides splash mountain probably never seen the movie it was based on. Most people love the ride even thou they never seen the movie or liked the movie. I never seen the movie splash mountain was based on. So if you didn't like avatar should have very little if you like the rides or not.

 

[crisi]

A lot of people who rides splash mountain probably never seen the movie it was based on. Most people love the ride even thou they never seen the movie or liked the movie. I never seen the movie splash mountain was based on. So if you didn't like avatar should have very little if you like the rides or not.

It is an odd theme choice in retrospect. Disney signed that contract and made that commitment far too fast - and what was the hottest film and potential franchise EVER kind of became "really, you turned down Harry Potter and skipped over Star Wars for THAT?"

It looks lovely and I'm sure it will be enjoyable to people even if they didn't see the movie (I never have), but it isn't going to be the draw that Harry Potter is - which is how it was positioned when announced.

(I love Song of the South, even recognizing the racism. I personally find it a shame that the folk tales that do have a huge African American influences have gotten lost because of the offensiveness of the "happy slave" narrative. I wonder sometimes if we haven't lost as much as we've gained in burying that, I sort of wish it could be seen with context put around it. I haven't seen it in 30 years - I last saw it in a college classroom that had special dispensation to show it.)

 

[keishashadow]

A lot of people who rides splash mountain probably never seen the movie it was based on. Most people love the ride even thou they never seen the movie or liked the movie. I never seen the movie splash mountain was based on. So if you didn't like avatar should have very little if you like the rides or not.

You should, it's a great movie that reflected the story. I do understand it is considered offensive by many in this day and age and respect that.

I'm told Avatar did very well in non-US markets, perhaps that's the droids they are looking for as new influx of guests lol.

It is an odd theme choice in retrospect. Disney signed that contract and made that commitment far too fast - and what was the hottest film and potential franchise EVER kind of became "really, you turned down Harry Potter and skipped over Star Wars for THAT?"

It looks lovely and I'm sure it will be enjoyable to people even if they didn't see the movie (I never have), but it isn't going to be the draw that Harry Potter is - which is how it was positioned when announced.

(I love Song of the South, even recognizing the racism. I personally find it a shame that the folk tales that do have a huge African American influences have gotten lost because of the offensiveness of the "happy slave" narrative. I wonder sometimes if we haven't lost as much as we've gained in burying that, I sort of wish it could be seen with context put around it. I haven't seen it in 30 years - I last saw it in a college classroom that had special dispensation to show it.)

Universal did a wonderful job acquiescing to Ms. Rowlings demands for the portrayal of her world!!!

I have a copy, my children & grandchild watched the movie and we discussed it thoroughly afterwards. It helped them to understand the theme of the ride and opened dialogue about slavery and that truly shameful time in our country's history. "Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it"

 

[Dean]

I don't disagree. I was merely responding to a post regarding dropping points on the bungalows while raising points on the studios won't be in the "best interest" of most PVB owners. I guess my follow up question is how to determine what's the best interest of the PVB owners as a whole.

LAX

There's the direct benefit or loss to a member related to their planned usage and to the resort as a whole. The way a given owner planned to use their points (? studio only) would not be germane to the management of the resort itself. Every reallocations hurts some and helps others so it's really a wash technically.

 

[edk35]

I am not that picky about where we stay. I know that is not the case for most people. I don't mind staying at OKW and SSR.

 

[quandrea]

I am not that picky about where we stay. I know that is not the case for most people. I don't mind staying at OKW and SSR.

Agreed. I have had some wonderful last minute stays at both. So welcoming, great amenities, love the pools and dining. SSR has the best Community Hall in my opinion.