Any storms brewing for next week?

[boomhauer]

Just checked on weather.com, and all I saw was scattered thunderstorms everyday. Perfectly normal for this time of year at Disney.

Are there any major storms or possible hurricanes in the forecast that I haven't heard about?

 

[Equidae]

As or right now, there isn't much to speak of. There is a TS Jose off of Mexico, not a threat to us in in FL. There is also a tropical wave off Florida's south east coast, but that will just bring rain.
Weather Info

A great site to check is weatherunderground.com when a storm is coming. Lots of models, tracking info, and pictures.The weather channel really isn't the best resource, try the local sites instead, such as the Orlando Sentinal and Florida Today.

 

[mindysue95]

I won't be in Disney World, but live in FL and am keeping my eye on this system:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=68&tstamp=200508

 

[mindysue95]

This one has indeed developed into tropical depression 12. They are going to announce it at 5PM Eastern

 

[Handbag Lady]

Thanks for the info!!!

 

[boomhauer]

What does that mean?

When is it supposed to hit?

 

[safetymom]

000
Wtnt22 Knhc 232025
Tcmat2
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast/advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122005
2100z Tue Aug 23 2005

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Government Of The Bahamas Has Issued A Tropical Warning Storm Warning For The Central And Northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Or Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Portions Of Southern Florida Later Tonight.

Tropical Depression Center Located Near 23.2n 75.5w At 23/2100z Position Accurate Within 30 Nm

Present Movement Toward The Northwest Or 310 Degrees At 7 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1007 Mb Max Sustained Winds 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 23.2n 75.5w At 23/2100z At 23/1800z Center Was Located Near 23.0n 75.2w

Forecast Valid 24/0600z 24.0n 76.5w
Max Wind 35 Kt...gusts 45 Kt.
34 Kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 0nw.

Forecast Valid 24/1800z 25.0n 77.7w
Max Wind 40 Kt...gusts 50 Kt.
34 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 30nw.

Forecast Valid 25/0600z 25.7n 78.5w
Max Wind 45 Kt...gusts 55 Kt.
34 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast Valid 25/1800z 26.0n 79.4w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 Kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.

Forecast Valid 26/1800z 26.3n 81.0w...inland Max Wind 50 Kt...gusts 60 Kt.
50 Kt... 25ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 Kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm On Day 4 And 325 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day

Outlook Valid 27/1800z 26.5n 83.5w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.

Outlook Valid 28/1800z 27.5n 86.0w
Max Wind 65 Kt...gusts 80 Kt.

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 23.2n 75.5w

Next Advisory At 24/0300z

Forecaster Stewart

 

[safetymom]

000
Wtnt72 Knhc 232025
Spfat2
Tropical Depression Twelve Probabilities Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Tue Aug 23 2005

Probabilities For Guidance In Hurricane Protection Planning By Government And Disaster Officials

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Depression Center Was Located Near Latitude 23.2 North...longitude 75.5 West

Chances Of Center Of The Depression Passing Within 65 Nautical Miles Of Listed Locations Through 2pm Edt Fri Aug 26 2005

Location A B C D E Location A B C D E

25.0n 77.7w 50 X X X 50 Jacksonville Fl X X 2 9 11
25.7n 78.5w 36 X X 1 37 Savannah Ga X X X 6 6
26.0n 79.4w 19 6 1 1 27 Charleston Sc X X X 3 3
Mucf 221n 805w X 1 X 3 4 Myrtle Beach Sc X X X 2 2
Musn 216n 826w X X X 2 2 Key West Fl X 5 3 5 13
Muha 230n 824w X X 1 5 6 Marco Island Fl X 9 4 5 18
Mysm 241n 745w 60 X X X 60 Ft Myers Fl X 7 6 5 18
Myeg 235n 758w 99 X X X 99 Venice Fl X 3 7 7 17
Myak 241n 776w 50 X X X 50 Tampa Fl X 1 7 8 16
Mynn 251n 775w 53 X X X 53 Cedar Key Fl X X 3 10 13
Mygf 266n 787w 20 6 1 1 28 St Marks Fl X X X 8 8
Marathon Fl 2 8 2 4 16 Apalachicola Fl X X X 7 7
Miami Fl 7 11 2 2 22 Panama City Fl X X X 6 6
W Palm Beach Fl 3 14 3 2 22 Pensacola Fl X X X 2 2
Ft Pierce Fl X 12 5 4 21 Gulf 29n 85w X X 1 8 9
Cocoa Beach Fl X 7 6 6 19 Gulf 29n 87w X X X 4 4
Daytona Beach Fl X 1 6 8 15

Column Definition Probabilities In Percent
A Is Probability From Now To 2pm Wed
Following Are Additional Probabilities
B From 2pm Wed To 2am Thu
C From 2am Thu To 2pm Thu
D From 2pm Thu To 2pm Fri
E Is Total Probability From Now To 2pm Fri X Means Less Than One Percent

Forecaster Stewart

 

[boomhauer]

OK....Not to sound dumb (which, when it comes to weather, I am), but what exactly does all that mean?

I'm flying down on Saturday.

 

[safetymom]

Just keep an eye on your flights and the weather. They aren't in agreement yet how this will affect FL.

 

[MelodyMack]

It means its too soon to tell...it may be something it may be nothing.

 

[xoxpluto88]

let's hope and pray this doesn't turn into anything!!!

 

[DisneyWisher]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204602.shtml?5day

5 day forecast for tropical depression 12, though our local weatherman thinks it will be a Tropical Storm tomorrow.

 

[undertheseas]

Thanks for the links guys! I'm starting to watch the weather (we leave in 10 days). Here's hoping to hurricane free vacations!!!

 

[boomhauer]

If I'm reading this page correctly, it looks like this storm will be heading way south of Orlando, and as of Saturday, will be off to the west coast of Florida...

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNati...harts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none

 

[jwfla422]

Ha ha ha ha, this is what we get for planning a quick, whirlwind trip to Disney Hoping the drive weather is not too bad on Thurs morning for our way up... looking like it's going to impact our area Thurs into Fri--let's wish for the best.

 

[sarahsmom3]

Were leaving next Tuesday, Stay Away hurricanes!!! The 10 day forecast says 60% of scattered thunderstorms. Will this ruin out park plans???

 

[Uncleromulus]

The key word is "chance" Along with "scattered". Meaning they haven't any real clue IF or WHEN or even WHERE it might (or might not) rain. Such a forecast (normal for Orlando) is virtually useless in planning anything.
Hope your weather turns out OK!!!
As for the hurricane forecast--no way they can even begin to tell you where a hurricane (or tropical storm) will be next week. MIGHT be--maybe. But WILL be?? No. A day or so away--better chance. And even then they can be totally wrong.
Just watch, wait, and hope for the best!!

 

[boomhauer]

Still not looking that bad. Accuweather is calling for rain off and on over the next few days, but no high winds as of yet.

 

[sarahsmom3]

The key word is "chance" Along with "scattered". Meaning they haven't any real clue IF or WHEN or even WHERE it might (or might not) rain. Such a forecast (normal for Orlando) is virtually useless in planning anything.
Hope your weather turns out OK!!!
As for the hurricane forecast--no way they can even begin to tell you where a hurricane (or tropical storm) will be next week. MIGHT be--maybe. But WILL be?? No. A day or so away--better chance. And even then they can be totally wrong.
Just watch, wait, and hope for the best!!

Thanks!!