Maybe I'm a frugal person or I'm more conscious with my money, but for the life of me I wouldn't even imagine forking out $4000-$5000 per year (size of our family) for a product that I won't use or use to it's potential. To me, this is nuts. Imagine putting that money into investments, stocks, charities, or even using it for another vacation.
It's investing in future savings; which is basically the same thing you did when you purchased
DVC in the first place. No one would have expected you to realize the full savings of purchasing DVC the year you purchased it. The ROI is years in the making.
Lets say I am able to renew my AP for 3 years, but I am not able to replace it. I do not use it this year which costs me about 1K per person. So I spend 1K to retain that future savings. Now say next year I want to take 3 trips. So I am still paying 1K. The next year I take 2 trips, and it costs me 1K. I have spend 3K per person for 3 years and 5 trips.
Now say I did not pay the 1K for year 1. Year 2 would have cost me 2.5K and Year 3 would have cost me 1.5K, for a total of 4K (assuming an 8 day ticket)
Am I likely double my investment of 1K in stocks? POSSIBLY. .
Now lets say Disney chooses to allow renewals for more than 3 years, but not allow new purchases. I know it seems unlikely, but then again no one thought AP sales would have been paused for 3 years, and here we are... Each future year brings more savings.
Bottom line - if I intend to keep going to Disney (and as long as I continue to hold DVC, I do), then it's cheaper to invest the 1K in future savings right now then to let that drop.
There is risk; just like there is risk in stocks; that Disney opens up AP sales again and that investment I did goes to waste. It's the same risk you take in any investment. I am betting that I am going to go to Disney MORE than once next year and that AP sales will not kick in prior to those trips. (Note, my annual cycle is September, and I am expecting a late September or early October trip). As long as that happens, I break even.
That does not include the ancillary savings that I get from an AP (discounts that do not apply to DVC), nor other extras like collectables for magnets, pins, and such.
No. I'm going to disagree. Tie it to resort stays. No 'good neighbor.' No S&D. No nothing unless it's a WDW hotel. Price it like an AP with a discount over 'normal' APs because it is tied to a WDW stay. And leave it alone. It will be no different than evaluating any other AP offering. The consumer decides if the value is worth it to them, just like we do with APs now. People with 1000+ points won't 'gain' the system, any more so that somebody with 200 will lose out.
Ok, you make a fair point. I agree with that. People who go a lot may save a lot more than people who do not go as much, but it still boils down to each individual making the assessment based on their expected travel which is the same as an AP today.
I withdraw my protest.