Any guesses how much dues will increase in 2024 with new union contract?

[CarolynFH]

Assuming union members approve the new contract, housekeepers’ hourly pay will increase from current $17 to $20 by December this year. Any estimates on impact to our dues? I don’t think wages increased more than $1/hour per year previously.

https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-storie...members-reach-tentative-agreement-over-wages/

 

[kilik64]

Assuming union members approve the new contract, housekeepers’ hourly pay will increase from current $17 to $20 by December this year. Any estimates on impact to our dues? I don’t think wages increased more than $1/hour per year previously.

https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-storie...members-reach-tentative-agreement-over-wages/

Did I miss something? All I see is that pay is going to 18 min with back pay from oct 2022.

https://wdwnt.com/2023/03/breaking-walt-disney-world-cast-members-win-negotiations-for-18-per-hour/

Different article that has the info you referred to.

Yea, thats gonna be a pretty solid hit to dues increase I imagine.

 

[CarolynFH]

Sorry, I just realized the DISboards article doesn’t clearly show the details. See link below - I’m referring to this quote from the Union’s announcement:

“Workers in many classifications will receive additional increases, with raises retroactive to October 2022:
• Union Housekeepers: increase from $17 to $20 immediately, ending at $24 in Oct. 2026”

So housekeepers, the group of union members most important to DVC, get a $3/hour raise this year.

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...-disney-unions-reach-historic-labor-agreement

 

[Ursula J]

I'd be more concerned about junk like this: https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/disney-ceo-bob-chapek-fired-severance-2022-compensation-1235491926/

 

[kilik64]

So housekeepers, the group of union members most important to DVC, get a $3/hour raise this year.

That big hit then avg of 1.33/hr per year through 2026 too.

How will the retro pay work? Will that be added into calculations for 2024 dues too?

 

[kilik64]

I'd be more concerned about junk like this: https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/disney-ceo-bob-chapek-fired-severance-2022-compensation-1235491926/

DVC dues don't directly pay for that though.

 

[CarolynFH]

That big hit then avg of 1.33/hr per year through 2026 too.

How will the retro pay work? Will that be added into calculations for 2024 dues too?

I think this year’s raise, if it causes housekeeping expense (operating costs) to be greater than estimated for 2023 dues, will come under the provision that DVC will make up the difference whenever owners’ dues don’t cover actual expenses. (That provision is in place of DVC paying dues on the points it owns.) So we only have to be concerned about how much we’ll pay for housekeeping in the 2024 budgets. I’m preparing for a noticeable increase.

 

[tjkraz]

Since the last contract expired on October 1, 2022, I have every reason to believe that DVC budgeted for a pay increase in 2023. They had no reason not to. Even if they budgeted high, the overage is returned to owners as a capital improvements credit.

Nevertheless, if the pay increase ends up being higher than projected for '23, DVC should have to cover the excess under the Developer Guarantee.

I'm guessing DVC targeted $17 per hour in the 2023 budget. If so, the next 3 years will have to cover another $3 increase in the minimum. Maybe 3-4% increase each year for labor alone. Ballpark.

 

[CarolynFH]

Since the last contract expired on October 1, 2022, I have every reason to believe that DVC budgeted for a pay increase in 2023. They had no reason not to. Even if they budgeted high, the overage is returned to owners as a capital improvements credit.

Nevertheless, if the pay increase ends up being higher than projected for '23, DVC should have to cover the excess under the Developer Guarantee.

I'm guessing DVC targeted $17 per hour in the 2023 budget. If so, the next 3 years will have to cover another $3 increase in the minimum. Maybe 3-4% increase each year for labor alone. Ballpark.

Based on the DVC News article I linked in post 3 above, this year alone housekeeping will get a $3/hour increase, or did I misread that? If so, would labor increase 3-4%, or significantly more?

 

[SL6827]

Based on the DVC News article I linked in post 3 above, this year alone housekeeping will get a $3/hour increase, or did I misread that? If so, would labor increase 3-4%, or significantly more?

Yes, and I still think they could use another couple dollars on top of that. Housekeeping has to be one of the worst jobs at Disney.

 

[tjkraz]

Based on the DVC News article I linked in post 3 above, this year alone housekeeping will get a $3/hour increase, or did I misread that? If so, would labor increase 3-4%, or significantly more?

The agreement had expired last October and Disney knew they were going to be paying higher wages. I think it's a very safe assumption that the 2023 dues we are paying right now include the majority of these first-year wage increases. Housekeeping will get an immediate increase from $17 to $20 but I don't think we will see a huge bump in 2024 alone because some of the pay increase was already applied proactively.

The press release doesn't detail exactly how the gradual pay increase will be applied but it will be stretched-out until 2026. Probably about ~$1 per hour, per year. Very, very ballpark but I'm guessing dues will go up 3-4% per year strictly to accommodate the wage increase. (Maybe not even that much...not every employee covered by our dues is making minimum wage or even represented by the union.) Then a couple more points for other inflationary factors.

 

[drusba]

Adding to the above: the wage increases were actually tentatively agreed to in Oct/Nov; the hold-up after that had mainly to do with benefits such as vacations and paid sick leaves. The 2023 increases were built into the 2023 operations dues, despite no final union agreement at the time, and were a main reason for higher than usual increases in the dues we got in December for 2023. Employee costs are the majority of all operations costs, and thus we can expect further, noticeable increases annually. And now we need to also anticipate expected more increases next year for things other than employee costs due to increase costs resulting from runaway inflation.

Note that even if the total employee or other costs for 2023 actually end up being higher than what was provided in the budget when the dues statements were issued, DVC cannot add those extra 2023 costs into the 2024 budget because, other than for extra costs for real property taxes than budgeted, DVC has to absorb any such excess costs and cannot add them into the 2024 budget (the Developer Guarntee mentioned above).

 

[WAstateDVCDaddy]

I haven’t looked in detail (- and maybe someone will drill down on this - but I think the labor related expenses are a pretty small portion of the dues, compared to property upkeep, utilities, etc.

This is essentially a 20% increase on some (most?) labor related dues cost. So if labor is 10% of the costs associated with dues, then a 2% increase in 2024?

 

[zavandor]

I don't care much about the increase, I'm just glad housekeeping and all other CMs are getting a liveable wage.

 

[tjkraz]

I haven’t looked in detail (- and maybe someone will drill down on this - but I think the labor related expenses are a pretty small portion of the dues, compared to property upkeep, utilities, etc.

This is essentially a 20% increase on some (most?) labor related dues cost. So if labor is 10% of the costs associated with dues, then a 2% increase in 2024?

During the annual budget review, DVC has repeatedly said that wages and benefits make up about 75% of the operating portion of the budget. Almost every category of operating expense has some heavy human involvement (front desk, housekeeping, maintenance, transportation, security, etc.)

If we look at a resort like BoardWalk, the total dues for 2023 is $8.53 per point. The operating portion is $5.88 per point. If wages & benefits are 75% of the $5.88, then we're taking $4.41 per point or 52% of the total dues bill.

Although, not all of those employees are necessarily union members and/or eligible for the full increase.

 

[Genie+]

I’m not expecting it to make a huge difference. Definitely not more than 50 cents increase in dues and maybe as little as 10 cents. Think about it. I’ll use studio as a metric but 1BR and 2BR scale similar with the increase of needed points/night. Average studio costs around 15pts per night. House keeping comes in every 4 days, flips the room at end, and also daily stuff contributing to our stays. For a studio what is likely the average daily clock time housekeeping needs to maintain it? Even a high estimate of 30 minutes each day, is still just $1.50, then divide by that average 15pts per night. That would be 10 cent increase needed for dues. I’d bet somewhere under a quarter, eta- and even possibly under 10 cents.

 

[Brian Noble]

There are some categories that are almost entirely people: Admin/Front Desk, Member Activities, Security, and Housekeeping. There are others that are probably at least half (or more): Maintenance and Transportation. For example, think about any repairs you've had done that were invoiced for time and materials separately. Usually "time" is significant. (Some estimates of transport suggest labor is 70%).

But let's just call it half for both. At e.g. SSR in 2022, the first four categories total $2.55ish and half of the other two comes to $0.72. So at least $3.25ish (or half of total dues) of the total is hourly labor.

That's very close to Tim's figure of 52%.

If that goes up by 18/15ths, it is an increase of $0.65. That's an overestimate, because not everyone is currently at minimum.

Note that even if the total employee or other costs for 2023 actually end up being higher than what was provided in the budget when the dues statements were issued, DVC cannot add those extra 2023 costs into the 2024 budget because, other than extra costs for real property taxes than budgeted, DVC has to absorb any such excess costs and cannot add them into the 2024 budget.

This is very good motivation for Disney to be extremely conservative in their estimates. Estimating too high just rolls the excess into capital reserves (and potentially allows for a lower increase later). Estimating too low puts Disney on the hook.

Disney does not like being on the hook.

I'm just glad housekeeping and all other CMs are getting a liveable wage.

Too bad $18 doesn't quite cut it in Orlando, even for a single person with no dependents. It's a lot better than it was though.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm reminded of something one of my mentors told me once, when we were talking about technology "making things more efficient."

Every time you reduce the cost of anything, anywhere, you are ultimately cutting someone's pay.

 

[zavandor]

There are some categories that are almost entirely people: Admin/Front Desk, Member Activities, Security, and Housekeeping. There are others that are probably at least half (or more): Maintenance and Transportation. For example, think about any repairs you've had done that were invoiced for time and materials separately. Usually "time" is significant. (Some estimates of transport suggest labor is 70%).

But let's just call it half for both. At e.g. SSR in 2022, the first four categories total $2.55ish and half of the other two comes to $0.72. So at least $3.25ish (or half of total dues) of the total is hourly labor.

That's very close to Tim's figure of 52%.

If that goes up by 18/15ths, it is an increase of $0.65. That's an overestimate, because not everyone is currently at minimum.


This is very good motivation for Disney to be extremely conservative in their estimates. Estimating too high just rolls the excess into capital reserves (and potentially allows for a lower increase later). Estimating too low puts Disney on the hook.

Disney does not like being on the hook.


Too bad $18 doesn't quite cut it in Orlando, even for a single person with no dependents. It's a lot better than it was though.

I don't even live in the US, so I have no idea. But Disney met all (or almost all) requests made by the unions, so I guessed they're happy about the new deal. Universal pays $17 and there where good feedbacks on that too.
If then we want to talk about how some type of labor is underpaid, especially for the most vulnerable people, not just in the US but worldwide, better do it in front of a drink during next WDW vacation, I don't think Disboards policies would allow the comments I'd write

 

[Brian Noble]

You'd probably find a very sympathetic ear with me! I'm a Mario Savio guy myself.