THE WEEKEND MAIN COURSE HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CORRIDOR from VIRGINIA TO MAINE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
If computer model trends continue as they have in the past 24 hours, this storm has potential to eclipse December 19, 2009 ; February 15-18, 2003 ; January 6-8, 1996 ; March 11, 1993 ; February 11, 1983 ; December 1966, and could rival March 18-22, 1958. We are are not trying to be sophomoric for the sake of ratings. In this highly charged El-Nino pattern, with the 3-month Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) equal to that of January 2003, the month of February may produce societal disruptions similar to what occured in January 1994 along the eastern seaboard.
SUPPORTING DATA PROJECTIONS Forecaster Brisko of Penn State University recently issued the latest liquid equivalents from both the European (ECMWF) and US Global Forecast System (GFS) computer models. We have been examining this potential for 36 hours, and this constitutes our "FirstCast" but by no means is a "Storm Grade Amount" which is customarily released 12-24 hours before the event.
Liquid equivalents Washington to Richmond 1.75 - 2.00" | Baltimore to Philadelphia 1.50 - 1.75" | Harrisburg to Hagerstown 1.25 - 1.50"
Possible snow ratios The three most recent storms have produced ratios 2 or 3 inches higher than what our forecast team has projected (14:1 for Dec 19, actual 16.7 ; 12:1 for January 8, actual 14:1 ; 15:1 for January 30, actual >20:1). Based on this, the team and students are setting 16:1 as a general baseline snow ratio for this event.
FirstCast and rationale Using 16:1 as a guide, and 1.50" as liquid midpoint, we believe this storm could equal or exceed 24" in the Baltimore metropolitan area by daybreak Sunday. Note that several other computer models have amounts far higher.