Annual Passes - Which is most popular?

[bumbershoot]

I always feel that it's important to realize that passes are blocked *because it's ALREADY going to be busy*. They are trying to quell an even busier day by keeping a group or two out. It's going to be busy already; that's why those passes are blocked.

 

[Frozen2014]

But I don't think crowds will be worse, they'll probably be better with the earlier date you picked. It only costs more if you're only going for one day. Multi day tickets are the same price no matter when you go, and hotel prices are probably similar for the two weeks.

Awesome. Good to hear. Thanks.
Yes...we would be buying 3 or 4 day park tickets. DH was thinking of cost also in terms of hotel and airline. Although when I checked airline for this year, the two weeks seemed equal. Hotels may differ though.

 

[Frozen2014]

I always feel that it's important to realize that passes are blocked *because it's ALREADY going to be busy*. They are trying to quell an even busier day by keeping a group or two out. It's going to be busy already; that's why those passes are blocked.

Yes, that makes sense...that they are blocking people since it is already busy with it being summer. Just trying to gage the two weeks and understand the % of passholders in each group (since not all are blocked). I know it won't be empty and summer is a busy time...which gives us Canadians a bit of an advantage...but then there's the Haunted Mansion delima.

Another plus though with going Aug 15th is that we do want to see CA too...so we won't be rushed to get back (i.e. if we pick the last week, then we will only have a couple days before we need to return home for start of school).

 

[Skyegirl1999]

Maybe i"m thinking of it wrong, but if only 25% of annual passholders are actually blocked (since the top 3 types are not blocked Aug 15th week), then then there are still tons of people that can visit. But if most of the people that have annual passes purchase the Southern California, then the bulk of passholders are blocked. Not sure if that makes sense?

Yes correct...we are looking at August of 2017, but using this year as a gage. True ...next year won't be the 60th anniversary which may drive crowds up in a different way.

I see what you're saying, but the number of passholders matters less than the effects on the park. It could be 50% of the passholders and not really make an effect, or it could be 10% and be a big difference... Not a big deal, I was just pointing out that some of the confusion upthread was people focusing on a different issue than you were actually wanting to know about.

Also, the number of APs is often reported to be around a million... So even if it's only 25%, that's 250,000 people (and they're all people who live local with those passes).

Anyway, I see you've already gotten lots of wisdom and ideas, I just wanted to clarify. . I hope you have a great trip!

 

[SMD]

Disney doesn't release the number of passholders or the breakdown of percentages, so there really is nothing to understand. Any number that anyone would give you is probably fiction. I would decide based on any cost differences and scheduling. Either which schedule works best for you, or in this case it sounds like when this one must do ride will be operating. On any given day several large groups could decide to show up at buy tickets, whether a fraction of APs are blocked or not. Or Disney could start some promotion like they did with Food & Wine or Get Happier Mondays that will draw people to the parks. We know that when APs are about to be blocked or are recently unblocked there is some crowd swell. We know that race weekends are popular. Those should be factors, but trying to plan around hard crowd numbers that don't exist and can't be predicted is a losing game.

 

[sheetz]

You're trying to overthink things. Because there are so many variables it's not a simple matter to predict crowds. If it were then Touring Plans wouldn't be so wrong so many of the times.

 

[Frozen2014]

Thank you all. Appreciate the replies...all helpful. Leaning towards the earlier date if not a huge cost difference, but lots of time to decide.