And the reviews are in.............Little Mermaid

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

It's a $250M production budget. Normal break even for theatrical is 2-2.5X the production budget. With this open, especially overseas, it's looking like Mermaid will struggle and come under $500M WW. There is nowhere left to open except Japan, and since Covid, Disney has made nothing there.

This could be a $450Mish WW grosser, and thus a real disappointment for Disney corporate who will have to wait for after market to see this turn a profit.

It is what it is. The INT number is under Dumbo's opening weekend. That's the perspective.

Dumbo was
Box office Mar 29, 2019 $45,990,748 DOM $114,766,307 WW

So, as you can see, $69M INT for a movie that did really poorly itself, although it did show a big turn around in Europe after OW, thus saving its INT number (while never turning around DOM)...

They've already got almost 180 million as of this weekend for Mermaid if estimates are correct. The rule of thumb is if you can get half your production budget back on opening weekend, it's on its way to potentially making a profit. Mermaid has well over that. In fact, depending upon estimated budget ($200-$250 million) Mermaid is either well on its way or nearly there. Again far from the "full rejection" and "disaster" you proclaimed and much closer to the cautious optimism I portrayed.

 

[BrianL]

They've already got almost 180 million as of this weekend for Mermaid if estimates are correct. The rule of thumb is if you can get half your production budget back on opening weekend, it's on its way to potentially making a profit. Mermaid has well over that. In fact, depending upon estimated budget ($200-$250 million) Mermaid is either well on its way or nearly there. Again far from the "full rejection" and "disaster" you proclaimed and much closer to the cautious optimism I portrayed.

I agree. I think it's sitting pretty to break-even. It will likely be a decent hit, though maybe not a huge one. That's doing to depend on what kind of legs it has. Some competition is on the horizon though.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I agree. I think it's sitting pretty to break-even. It will likely be a decent hit, though maybe not a huge one. That's doing to depend on what kind of legs it has. Some competition is on the horizon though.

I noticed that. It will be interesting to see how much those two movies coming will eat up the existing pie so to speak vs increasing the size of the total pie.

 

[Disneychick13]

Saw a longer Wish trailer yesterday. Visually beautiful and music seemed good. Looking forward to it.

I am not looking forward to Elemental, but will be going. Seems like it's just another Inside Out.

I had not heard of Wish! Just watched the trailer and I’m excited about it
Elemental does have Inside Out vibes and….I wasn’t the biggest fan of that. So it’s not for me.

 

[Pooh's World]

Its struggle is not domestic - it's worldwide. Outside of the US, Little Mermaid has had a catastrophic open. It's unlikely to break even theatrically b/c the world outside of the US did fully reject it. Who knows why, since they don't really follow US/Disney issues, so that's not likely why they are skipping it.

Can’t tell anything from the first week because there was no completion and Disney cornered all be theaters and screenings with Mermaid.

The true test is if the movie has legs. Budget was $250 mil and then you add marketing costs so needs about $350-$400 mil just to break even.

Probably needs to make at least 700 million to be a success

 

[Pooh's World]

They've already got almost 180 million as of this weekend for Mermaid if estimates are correct. The rule of thumb is if you can get half your production budget back on opening weekend, it's on its way to potentially making a profit. Mermaid has well over that. In fact, depending upon estimated budget ($200-$250 million) Mermaid is either well on its way or nearly there. Again far from the "full rejection" and "disaster" you proclaimed and much closer to the cautious optimism I portrayed.

They spent a boatload on marketing. The movie needs to have legs like Mario or they will be in trouble

 

[Karin1984]

They spent a boatload on marketing. The movie needs to have legs like Mario or they will be in trouble

Definitely true on the marketing. I haven't seen so much exposure for a new Disney movie in years.

Did the other remakes get this much?

 

[Mysterian]

They spent a boatload on marketing. The movie needs to have legs like Mario or they will be in trouble

So you're saying the movie will flounder.

 

[Mysterian]

Elemental has strong Inside Out vibes to me. Not quite the same exact premise but that you have these elements that could be connected easily to emotions that were in Inside Out, same color vibes like Inside Out although people commented from the previews to the actual movie Little Mermaid wasn't represented well from the trailers.

Marvel we usually see in theaters as well although we didn't see Black Widow and still haven't actually. We ended up watching Doctor Strange Into the Madness at home too.

I agree though as a general thing for us it takes a lot to see movies in theaters these days.

Elemental looks decent. It does look a bit "familiar", but decent. I still have strong hopes for Pixar.
"Elements don't mix!", says one of the characters. Actually, elements can be mixed into compounds. There, I ruined the movie.

 

[Mysterian]

I haven't seen the movie yet, but I noticed the underwater scenes looked as cheery as the underwater scenes of Mary Poppins Returns.

Just checked, same director and same director of photography! Rob Marshall and Dion Beebe, who have also done Into the Woods and Chicago. If WB/DC needs a musical Aquaman film, they're the dudes.