Executive Summary
In September 2001, Cambridge University Press published Bjørn Lomborgs The
Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the True State of the World. The books
comprehensiveness (515 pages; 2,930 footnotes), the authors green credentials (a former
Greenpeace member, Lomborg began the books research to debunk Julian Simons forecasts
of continuing environmental improvement), and Lomborgs powerful refutation of the
doomsday litany of our ever-deteriorating environment, sparked considerable interest.
Favorable reviews followed in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Economist. When
the book became an international best seller, ideological environmentalists launched an angry
counter-attack. Among the key figures to impugn Lomborgs scholarship is the subject of this
paper: Harvard Professor John P. Holdren.
Holdren, a Clinton-era leader of climate policy and energy technology task forces, is
now the leading academic member of the National Commission on Energy Policy, a $10
million, two-year project tasked with formulating a centrist energy policy. Holdren is also
one of four authors to denounce Lomborg in the January 2002 issue of Scientific American, in a
feature article pretentiously titled, Science Defends Itself Against The Skeptical
Environmentalist.
A more accurate title would be Environmental Establishment Fears to Debate Bjørn
Lomborg, because Scientific American refused to publish Lomborgs replies to his critics.
Scientific Americans one-sided presentation of evidence, while claiming to defend science
from just such abuse, easily qualifies as Orwellian.
In January 2003, a group calling itself the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty
issued an official denunciation of Lomborg, alleging that his book is contrary to standards of
good scientific practice because it offers a systematically biased representation of
environmental data. Yet, rather than conduct an independent investigation, the Committee
simply rehashed the four attacks published in Scientific American. And just as Scientific
American refused to publish Lomborgs 34-page rebuttal, so the Committee declined to
evaluate it. A more honest name for this panel would be the Committees for Scientific
Dishonesty.
The present paper, written by energy historian and policy expert, Robert L. Bradley, Jr.,
President of the Institute for Energy Research and senior research fellow at the University of
Houston, confines itself to the task of examining the Holdren-Lomborg debate on energy
issues. It demonstrates that Holdrens critique of Lomborg fails dismally. Insofar as the
Danish panel relies on Holdrens allegations, it is retailing falsehoods and exaggeration in the
name of science.
Holdrens attack on Lomborg in Scientific American reveals major shortcomings in
Holdrens analysis and understanding of scientific discourse:
Holdren falsely accuses Lomborg of debunking a straw man (the notion of an
impending physical or geological exhaustion of petroleum supplies), while
3
controversially forecasting increasing scarcity of oil as an economically recoverable
resource over the medium to longer term. (Would he like to wager?)
Holdren fails to appreciate the technological innovations that are commercializing
crude oil substitutes like Alberta oil sands and Venezuelan orimulsion, sustaining the
petroleum era beyond even optimistic forecasts of recoverable crude reserves.
Holdren refuses to consider the reasons for climate optimism: enhanced CO2
fertilization and a moderate, predominantly nighttime warming under realistic climate
scenarios. Instead, he naively endorses full-scale government energy planning in the
quixotic quest to stabilize climate.
Holdrens charge that Lomborgs energy analysis careens far across the line that
divides respectable (even if controversial science) from thoroughgoing and unrepentant
incompetence applies not to Lomborg but to Holdren himself.
In addition, Bradley documents shortcomings and outright errors in Holdrens 30-year
career as a physicist-turned-energy-polemicist.
Holdren in the 1970s forecast major ecological and economic crises absent a
revolution in human behavior and a massive political campaign to de-develop the
United States.
Holdren has not outgrown his 1970s opinion that, Our limited knowledge of the details
of air pollution permits little hope for early relief. He continues today to call air
pollution acute, belittling the tremendous gains in air quality trends in cities from Los
Angeles to Houston to New York due to remarkable advances in oil, gas, and coal
technologies and mostly incremental regulation.
Holdren once predicted that as many as one billion people could perish by 2020 from
man-made climate change. He now hedges: That the impacts of global climate
disruption may not become the dominant sources of environmental harm to humans for
yet a few more decades cannot be a great consolation. Yet he remains firmly in the
alarmist camp.
As Bradley documents, Holdrens publication record over 30 years reveals a penchant
for exaggeration, error, and now wholesale intolerance of reasoned dissent. Holdrens
criticisms of Lomborg should be dismissed as inadequate and troubling, and the National
Commission on Energy Policy should consider Holdrens track record and reconsider
Holdrens leadership role in devising a centrist approach to U.S. energy policy.
Marlo Lewis, Jr.
Senior Fellow, CEI