Advice on BCV and higher ownership cost

[ct_chris]

We have been thinking about buying into DVC and I have been doing lots of numbers and spreadsheets to determine the total ownership cost of DVC. I wanted to ask the forum some questions which might help guide our decision.
My family (includes DW, DD6, DD4, myself) recently stayed for 10 nights at BC resort and absolutely loved the location, pool, proximity to Epcot, etc. so we would definitely are leaning to purchasing at BCV contract.

Our current plan with DVC would be to go to Disney every other year and stay 10 days at a 1 bdr (approx~ 383 points at BVC). That means we will be banking points the odd years and traveling to Disney the even year. I did some number crunching on purchasing 200 points at resale and here are my estimates

My assumptions:
No financing of buy-in
Dues will increase at 3.2% compounded annually for all resorts.

200 points at BCV (Contract expires 2042)
Buy-in cost - $82/point - $16,400
Total Maintenance Cost - $57,419.95 (start at 5.28%, $1056 for 2011)
Total DVC Cost $73,819.95
Maintenance % 77.78%
Years 31
Total number of points 6200
Cost/point $11.91

200 points at OKW (Contract expires 2042)
Buy-in cost - $57/point - $11,400
Maintenance Cost $54,157.45 (start at 4.98%, $996 for 2011)
Total DVC Cost $65,557.45
Maintenance % 82.61%
Years 31
Total number of points 6200
Cost/point $10.57

200 points at BLT (contract expires 2060, but would sell at 2042 for $100)
Buy-in cost - $100/point - $20,000
Maintenance Cost (2011-2042) $42,303.71 (start at 3.89%, $778 for 2011)
Selling Value - $50/point - $10,000
Total DVC Cost $52,303.71
Years 31
Total number of points 6200
Cost/point $8.84

From these estimates it seems clear that BCV is a very expensive option and BLT is the lowest cost. What I am most concerned with is the home resort availability of BCV at 11 months vs. 7 months and if we really like this resort do we have to pay such a premium?

Any thoughts and comments are appreciated.

 

[DVCconvert]

The first observation I have is that all your buy-in costs per point assume resales, and at todays rates. You are aware that after sunday 3/20, resale points will be restricted? Some speculate that Disney's ROFR activity may greatly expand in the coming weeks/months. Future resale rates are, at best, an unknown.

 

[cvjw]

We own at BCV, plus three other resorts. In the two years that we have owned DVC, we have been able to book BCV at the 7 month mark and use other points in May and Sept. We just recently had to cancel a Sept BCV reservation, and move it to right after Christmas, and book BCV for Food and Wine at the 8 month mark. If we hadn't owned BCV points, I doubt we would've gotten our desired Oct and Dec reservations at the 7 month mark. If you are set on staying at BCV, you need to own there. That's why we have points there - it is our favorite resort at Disney.

 

[chalee94]

if i would be disappointed if i couldn't stay at BCV and i could usually book 10-11 months out, then i would definitely buy at BCV.

if you'd be happy to stay at OKW or BLT, then sure, buy there and try for BCV at 7 months. but if you'd feel "stuck" at OKW, then why spend thousands of dollars only to be frustrated...

 

[mjc2003]

My family (includes DW, DD6, DD4, myself) recently stayed for 10 nights at BC resort and absolutely loved the location, pool, proximity to Epcot, etc.

Many feel the same, hence the premium. Combine the location, pool and proximity to Epcot/Hollywood Studios with the limited number of memberships, and you can understand why there is a demand. We are in the midst of buying a 200 point resale contract for all these same reasons.
I would encourage you to understand the 3/20 changes before buying resale. Unless you are willing to buy literally today, and hope it goes through before Sunday.

As to the demand, there are currently about 13 available contracts at BCV via all the major resellers. Compare that to VWL, a similarly sized resort, where there are about 65 contracts for sale. Supply/Demand= premium pricing.

We simply love it more than any other location we've seen and don't want to "hope" to get a room there. We'll be going every 18 months, and will book 11 months to the day out, and will be securing a 2 bedroom.

 

[ct_chris]

Thank you for the comments.
DVCconvert...I am aware that the future costs of resale and Disney's ROFR activity is unknown in the future. All I can do is use current selling prices to make projections. In fact if I buy BLT from Disney direct ($132/point), it still cost less to purchase than BCV.

200 points at BLT (contract expires 2060, but would sell at 2042 for $100)
Buy-in cost - $100/point - $26,400
Maintenance Cost (2011-2042) $42,303.71 (start at 3.89%, $778 for 2011)
Selling Value - $50/point - $68,703.11
Total DVC Cost $58,703.11
Years 31
Total number of points 6200
Cost/point $9.47

 

[ct_chris]

mjc2003

thank you for confirming my thoughts and reasoning for paying the premium at BCV even if it is not as "cost-effective".

As far as the 3/20 resale changes, I am fully aware of Disney's changes and do realize their potential impact, but we are just not ready to pull the trigger and thus we can't do something that we are not 100% committed.

 

[Disneyfriend]

As a brand new owner myself, I would advise you to buy where you want to stay . . . really! If you love BCV (and I can totally see why you would), go for it. The difference in cost over a very long contract is really not that important. Go where you and your family are going to be extremely happy.

Best of luck making your decision!

 

[sweetdana]

1) If you are okay with split staying you could do 100 points at BLT and 100pts at BC, and mix your costs. If you are not okay with staying somewhere else. You have to buy there. If you are okay with potentially staying there and potentially not, then split purchase or a cheaper resort is a fantastic option to save a little $$. The over all cost through the life of the loan is not a substantial diff though. IE 3400$ vrs 4200$ for a 10 day trip.

That being said, I suspect the price of the resorts holding resale prices higher, will drop a little. IE BC, BLT, and GV all holding strong on resale price and if it is only 20$-50$ more to buy direct you will see reslae markets lose business bringing down the price per point. I bet 6 months from now a 200 point BC is not resale at 85$ a point still. The larger contracts even more so.

 

[Samaya]

Your assumptions seem to be based on todays value of the dollar as being the same year after year, so you should only treat your figures as a rough guide and not as the main reason to sway you one way.

The cost for 200 points at BLT at $100 a point is $20,000

While your cost for 200 points at BCV at $82 a point is $16,400.

The saving of $3,600 today will go a long way (12+years) in paying the difference in the extra annual dues of $1.39 a point, (200 points = $278.00).

The Beach Club seems to be the resort that fit's you needs and want's, so go with your heart buy at the Beach!

 

[mjc2003]

I too did a hundred different workups, spreadsheets, etc... Finally I simplified it. I stopped factoring in the increase in MF's, b/c I can't gauge the increase in rack rates for the rooms we like, so I called it a wash. In other words, the 2 BR villa cash rate is around $700. Plus resort tax, etc...and this price will increase over time, but at what rate?
I also don't realistically think we'll be members for 31 years. I based my numbers on 15 years. If I travel 10 times in 15 years, I am getting 70 nights at around $700 per night. Again, that price will increase, but I'm not factoring that in. So, my $16,800 investment, added to my approx $16,000 in MF (yes these will be higher but so will the rack rate, so this is why I am calling it a wash; comparing at todays numbers seems the most applicable), and I am in for about $33,000. Versus about $50,000 in rooms. If I sell my contract for half price, $8,000, I vacationed 10 times for 50% of the rack rate.


Are these numbers exact? No! But, there are so many variables; when will you travel? How often? Will your plans change in 5-10 years? Not every element can be considered, so I tried to keep it REALLY simple.

I will add that we are very fiscally pragmatic, we don't have any debt and own no timeshares before this. We are paying cash, not financing. So it's not in our nature to be whimsical. I do see value, and I will tell you that the initial pains of working over the scenarios, crunching the numbers and endless discussions have all gone away now, and we simply can't wait to get our points and start vacationing. Point being, during the decision process it's easy to look at just the investment side. But once you buy, you start appreciating the vacation side, and accept the commitment. We've been increasingly excited as we get closer to being able to act on our points.

 

[disneynutz]

You need to decide what's more important, cost or staying at the resort you love? You mentioned that you stayed at BCV so that's your first choice. What if you later find out that you like a different resort more and can't get a reservation there because that isn't your home resort?

IMO the timeshare business is in a state of flux with the corporations doing what ever they want to increase profits irregardless of the negative effect on the owners. Disney has already made several changes and I expect more in the future.

Bill

 

[arthur06]

IMO the timeshare business is in a state of flux with the corporations doing what ever they want to increase profits irregardless of the negative effect on the owners.

I always thought timeshares and there sales people were on the up and up... who knew...

 

[bobbiwoz]

We bought into BCV because we knew that when we wanted to bring the DGC and have the dedicated 2 bedroom with 2 queens in the second bedroom. We've bought the points direct from Disney 25 -40 pts at a time. I balked when the price went to $105, but still be added on. I'm so happy with that purchase. We have other home resorts as well, but we do go to WDW frequently.

Bobbi

 

[disneynutz]

I always thought timeshares and there sales people were on the up and up... who knew...

I guess that I should have added that Disney use to be different than the other timeshare companies.

Bill

 

[Disneyfriend]

Just another thought . . . at the risk of stating the obvious, you are *not* making this decision primarily for financial reasons. None of us DVC owners are. I mean, we could all spend the next 30-50 years staying at the closest Motel 6 and saving a *ton*. But it doesn't all come down to cash - it comes down to many intangibles such as that elusive "Disney magic", convenience, comfort, atmosphere, proximity to the parks, extra space, etc.

(I'm not making fun of Motel 6 or budget accomodations - we've all stayed there - we all have different stages/seasons in life - but just making a point.)

It sounds like you can comfortably afford to buy into BCV. And I would thus encourage you to get what you really want and do just that. It seems like you and your family will be thrilled in the long run spending that bit of extra money. Again, best wishes.