ADR and FP+. Why so far out?

[DisDadDVC]

As most everyone knows, ADR's are booked at 180 days and FP's at 60 for onsite and 30 for offsite. Does it really make sense for Disney to book these THIS far out? Wouldn't having ADR's at 90 days and FP's at 30/15 have the same effect? What about 30 and 20/10?

To me, the biggest issue is FP+ timing. The 60 day window is so far from the 180 day window that you can't really coordinate with dining res anyway. By the time the FP+ window comes around, you're not going to be doing wholesale changes to your ADR's just to work with your FP+ (A&E being the exception) Why not make onsite 7 days in advance, and offsite 1?

Dining makes a little more sense because they want to fill the restaurants. But then again, does it really matter if they sell out BOG 180 days in advance vs 30?

I know the real answer is "Because Disney wants it that way". But why do they? Seems like overkill.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Disney wants it that way, IMO, because it locks people into their trips and keeps them on Disney property. The more plans you have made, the less likely you are to make a spontaneous decision to head to Universal or Sea World instead.

IMO, I agree, the 180 and 60 days is overkill. I much prefer Disneyland's 60 days for ADRs (and nothing for fastpasses ). But I also know that ship has sailed for WDW.

 

[Alesia]

From a business perspective, you want to get people locked into their plans as early as possible.

FWIW, about 6 or 7 years ago WDW started doing ADRs at 90 days instead of 180 days. It did not go well. The phone lines were constantly overloaded.

 

[DisDadDVC]

From a business perspective, you want to get people locked into their plans as early as possible.

FWIW, about 6 or 7 years ago WDW started doing ADRs at 90 days instead of 180 days. It did not go well. The phone lines were constantly overloaded.

I guess I don't really understand why that would be. If on May 1 you start taking reservations for July 1, you shouldn't have more calls than you would on Jan 1. It's the same number of people eating onsite that day. And I understand the desire for Disney to "lock in" people, but you can cancel your package within 45 days. I would say the is the real "lock in" point. Having a BOG res 6 months out isn't going to force you to do your Disney trip.

 

[lugnut33]

It helps Disney to maximize profits. It allows them to staff the parks at levels low enough to be acceptable (but on exceptional). It locks people into being on-site. It also creates a little buzz for the restaurants in that you better get your ADR or you'll miss out.

 

[DisDadDVC]

It helps Disney to maximize profits. It allows them to staff the parks at levels low enough to be acceptable (but on exceptional). It locks people into being on-site. It also creates a little buzz for the restaurants in that you better get your ADR or you'll miss out.

Yes, but I think all of that is true at 90 days too. Or less. My question isn't "why does Disney lock you in in advance?". It is "why does Disney lock you in so FAR in advance?" I just think that 180 days is overkill and 90 would have the exact same effect. And why 180? Why not 360? To me, 180 days doesn't feel like the "right" number.

 

[Alesia]

I guess I don't really understand why that would be. If on May 1 you start taking reservations for July 1, you shouldn't have more calls than you would on Jan 1. It's the same number of people eating onsite that day.

Your logic would make sense if everyone was ready to make their ADRs at 180 days, but that isn't the case.

Think of it this way (I'll simplify the numbers: ) If you will have 1,000 people dining on a given day, only about 100 of them will know what ADR they'll want at 180 days out. By 150 days out, another 100 hundred will have decided. At 120 days out, another 100 are ready to book, and so on. If you open booking at 90 days out, you'll have 400 people who are all trying to call at the same time, as opposed to the 100 you would have had if you had opened booking at 180 days. When you multiply those numbers by 10,000 or so, you can see how that makes an enormous difference. The phone lines can only handle so many calls per day.

I promise you, Disney has people who know more about this than any of us who have figured out the exact formula for maximizing profits. They aren't just making these decisions willy-nilly.

 

[DisDadDVC]

Your logic would make sense if everyone was ready to make their ADRs at 180 days, but that isn't the case.

Think of it this way (I'll simplify the numbers: ) If you will have 1,000 people dining on a given day, only about 100 of them will know what ADR they'll want at 180 days out. By 150 days out, another 100 hundred will have decided. At 120 days out, another 100 are ready to book, and so on. If you open booking at 90 days out, you'll have 400 people who are all trying to call at the same time, as opposed to the 100 you would have had if you had opened booking at 180 days. When you multiply those numbers by 10,000 or so, you can see how that makes an enormous difference. The phone lines can only handle so many calls per day.

I promise you, Disney has people who know more about this than any of us who have figured out the exact formula for maximizing profits. They aren't just making these decisions willy-nilly.

But those are rolling days. You have not increased or decreased the total amount of calls in 365 days. If you did, then you would have created 10 busier call days and 10 less busy call days. But that can't be, because those 10 days are someone else's 180 days out. Even if you only took ADR's 1 day in advance. You could get 100% of calls 365 days a year. The 1,000 calls in that day would all be for the same day. Vs 1,000 calls that day that cover other days. It's still 1,000 calls.

And I'm sure Disney has people that figure this out, but I'm not convinced they have this one right.

 

[msb578]

This is a crazy idea, but maybe they allow 180 days because enough customers want to plan that far in advance. And Disney is happy to oblige because of the way it locks people in.

Similarly, if you don't like the system, write them an email. One letter won't change anything, but I'm convinced they do listen to "macro" feedback.

 

[Accident]

As most everyone knows, ADR's are booked at 180 days and FP's at 60 for onsite and 30 for offsite. Does it really make sense for Disney to book these THIS far out? Wouldn't having ADR's at 90 days and FP's at 30/15 have the same effect? What about 30 and 20/10?.

My theory is that disney would love to get more people without any discounts so ADRs are timed so the unknowing who read it's hard to get a reservation books when it's full price for everything else.

 

[DisDadDVC]

OK, so let's forget ADR's for a minute. What about FP+? Why not 7 days in advance instead of 60?

 

[Brocktoon]

A few years back they shortened the ADR window to 90 days. WDW actually got more complaints about 90 days being too short and that availability was too low with a shortened window ... at least that was the talk on the web forums. In any event after the trying out the 90 day window, things went right back to 180 days

 

[JOE DELL]

It's not the time advance that is the problem, be it 180, 90, or even 500 days, its the fact that people can book an unlimited number of ADR and hold them till the day before is what makes it so difficult.

 

[LilyWDW]

A few years back they shortened the ADR window to 90 days. WDW actually got more complaints about 90 days being too short and that availability was too low with a shortened window ... at least that was the talk on the web forums. In any event after the trying out the 90 day window, things went right back to 180 days

I remember that time period quite well. Luckily I didn't have a trip booked so I didn't have to deal with the mess, but it WAS a mess.

 

[Alesia]

But those are rolling days. You have not increased or decreased the total amount of calls in 365 days.

That's true, but it's immaterial.

When you have more calls in a single day than the phones can handle, you're going to have trouble.

 

[Karin1984]

6 months is not a lot for a company.

For my work I am already planning my entire marketing plan for 2016. And the year hasnt even started. For everything going on in January I will start preparation in early October.

For Disney it's not just scheduling cms, but also renovations for hotels and restaurants, refurbishment for ride, etc. Same for predicting merchandise and needing characters for new movies. You would need a plan for all this months in advance to make sure the park is up to date at that time.

That's a reason I can think of why WDW does it this far in advance. DL is much smaller and needs less time.

 

[DisDadDVC]

That's true, but it's immaterial.

When you have more calls in a single day than the phones can handle, you're going to have trouble.

But I don't see why you would have more on a single day. Let's say they handle 1,000 calls a day every day now. Every day is SOMEONES 180 day mark. if you made it 270 or 90, you will still have 1,000 calls per day. You have not increased or decreased the amount of reservations.

Anyway, it's all a moot point. I just feel like mainly the FP+ advance is not needed. I can understand needing an advantage for onsite vs offsite, but what not 10/5 instead of 60/30? I don't see how it helps Disney, and I would think shorter window would help the customer plan a little better.

 

[DisDadDVC]

6 months is not a lot for a company.

For my work I am already planning my entire marketing plan for 2016. And the year hasnt even started. For everything going on in January I will start preparation in early October.

For Disney it's not just scheduling cms, but also renovations for hotels and restaurants, refurbishment for ride, etc. Same for predicting merchandise and needing characters for new movies. You would need a plan for all this months in advance to make sure the park is up to date at that time.

That's a reason I can think of why WDW does it this far in advance. DL is much smaller and needs less time.

But I think Disney already has a good idea of what the general demand is 6 months in advance. They have an idea that xxxx number of people will book BOG. Whether you have the reservation or I do is not important to them. It's not like they are going to say "Oh, look, we only have 5,345 BOG reservations 6 months out for March lets do a refurb then."

 

[Alesia]

But I don't see why you would have more on a single day. Let's say they handle 1,000 calls a day every day now. Every day is SOMEONES 180 day mark. if you made it 270 or 90, you will still have 1,000 calls per day. You have not increased or decreased the amount of reservations.

You would be correct if attendance was the same every day, but it very definitely isn't.

 

[DisDadDVC]

You would be correct if attendance was the same every day, but it very definitely isn't.

I understand that, but I don't see how total number of calls changes. Or how it puts more calls in one day vs another. The attendance per day doesn't change. You are just taking Dec 25 calls on Oct 25 instead of June 25.