Tldr version:
DVC is complex
I think it comes down to what makes you most comfortable after considering all factors and how they apply to you. Some are predictable, others not. It always involves guesswork. The best we can do is try choosing the path most likely to have least regret.
Even with decent Swolphin pricing, the fees kill it. $45+tax resort fee, $36+tax parking, $35+tax for 3rd adult (18+), $35+tax 4th. For my family of 4, this equals OVER $165 PER NIGHT. Doesn’t matter if I get the $227/nt date or $457/nt date, I must also add this $167/nt. Dealbreaker. We’re starting to do 2 studios for the 4 of us or just go as a couple, but fees still add $100/nt in those comparisons.
We keep returning to the Crescent Lake area with car/family, don’t have Marriot points, and enjoy using DVC. BW and BC resale prices stay at the top of cost per point per year breakdowns because there’s probably alot of other people like us that looked beyond just the buy-in cost/pt.
Some of what pushed us to buy BWV:
Lower average points per night meant smaller contract could suffice. Has the added benefit of lower dues/nt avg. We have averaged 13pts/nt for our BW studios reservations (mix of std and BW view) with an average dues cost per night of $110. That makes the $6pp/py buy-in so much more acceptable.
After applying high TVM to the buy-in, and booking expensive seasons more regularly, I’m still near ~$350/nt avg cost. Only regularly booking Easter or Christmas breaks past $400/nt territory. And if I instead paired those trips with May/Dec/Jan trips alternatively, the average comes back down under $350/nt. What’s going to matter most is which rooms we choose and get, and their cost per night on average. Mixing in 10pt/nt trips drives that average down.
Even comparing SSR’s $3pp/py resale cost, BW’s $3 premium per point delivers on location and partially offset by BW lowering our average points used per night. We popped into BW 5 nights for 50pts with no regrets on buy-in premium paid. They’d need 60pts for those 5 nights, which makes my premium nearly a wash. (Without applying TVM to either) my BW per night ($6+$8.67)x10pts=$147/nt to SSR ($3+$8.14)=$133. The difference is $14/nt. Sold! I’d pay that to quadruple my chances at staying Crescent Lake 5 nights in a row (
especially on top of a very reasonable price).
In the end the risk felt greater that S&D has little under $400/nt, leaving me to regret either accepting that price or moving to a moderate that is still costing me what BWV could have. I took the bet our most likely outcomes end up $300/nt avg cost to use our BWV, including reasonable TVM. Only time will tell how we actually used the contract, how enjoyable it was, how much we paid per night, what other competition arises, etc. We plan to use until the end but I can’t predict we won’t sell in 10 years or even what that price may be. Weigh the knowns and likelihoods - decide a path
probably best for us to take.
I’m leaning on some of the advantages but tried to be fair. Main point is to explain why people still choose BW/BC.
Another option for existing owner is getting a transfer of BW points to take a ride around the block. Good fit or not so much?