ACTUAL data on ride wait times...

[HydroGuy]

We all know the posted wait times by Disney are not that reliable. And while Thrill Data info is useful, it appears they use the Disney data. Obviously same thing when you try and use the Disney app to see what is going on. Really the same thing as TP isn't it?

We also see lots of reports about inflated wait times by Disney near park closing times.

I have used TP's Lines app pre-COVID at both WDW and DLR and it was my sense their data for actual expected wait time was better than Disney's.

Does anyone have any sense if TP is now providing better actual data than Disney? Anyone using Lines in recent weeks?

 

[jbish]

I would think that TP's info is the same as what it was pre-Covid as their wait times use real wait times from users while in the lines. I'm sure there are other elements to their calculations to come up with an estimated wait time for someone hopping into the line and not purely rely upon the person that just submitted their actual wait time just before hopping into the ride vehicle. My point is, if you thought their data for actual expected wait time was better than Disney's before, then I would assume the same now. I did use it last June (no FP+/LL at the time) and found the estimated waits to be more accurate than Disney, but would occasionally be off. I don't have good data to back that up but I still plan on using the app in April for our next trip. As I write this now, Lines shows expected waits shorter than posted wait for most rides.

 

[MainMom]

I don’t know why it would be any different than pre/Covid since it relies on guests who are in line to report waits the same which is how it’s always been.

 

[HydroGuy]

I guess I misunderstood how Lines worked. I thought it did use feedback from people at the parks, but also used statistical models based on past data. As in, it knows that if Disney says a wait time at X is 60 minutes it usually means 42 minutes in actual time. That is how it is able to project out wait times for the day by combining what is being reported now with how things typically (statistically) change during the day.

Am I misunderstanding?

 

[Spaceace5150]

Good question on how TP calculates the estimated wait times. I'll be interested in hearing the answer.

I was at WDW a few weeks ago and also found the TP wait times to be more accurate.

 

[jaysmom4285]

I also thought that the TP expected wait times came from people who had submitted their actual time standing in line. Perhaps they can clarify. We were at WDW in early December and found the TP expected wait times to be very accurate in nearly all instances.

 

[IndyToThere]

On my trip last Oct, I used an app called 'Magic Guide for Disney World'... it shows wait times and lets you submit your observed wait time as well. Also has handy things like Park hours and maps at a glance. Loads much quicker than the official Disney app.

Note - it does have ads or prompts to get the paid version, although I found the free version pretty capable.

 

[HydroGuy]

I guess I misunderstood how Lines worked. I thought it did use feedback from people at the parks, but also used statistical models based on past data. As in, it knows that if Disney says a wait time at X is 60 minutes it usually means 42 minutes in actual time. That is how it is able to project out wait times for the day by combining what is being reported now with how things typically (statistically) change during the day.

Am I misunderstanding?

FWIW I subscribed today because I hoped the wait time estimates are better than Disney's (as I have observed in past trips). After reading further into the subscriber area, and without giving anything away I shouldn't, I can say that the method I summarized above is pretty much what they do.

 

[Kerr84]

I don’t know how accurate TP Lines is right now. When I try to look at user’s submitted times for rides, there are like 0-4 submitted times all day long for most rides. They have to be using some statistical data especially for the rides where no one posted a wait time all day.

 

[jpkkld]

Here this week and we found TP very accurate most of the time. A few exceptions were when a nearby ride would close and the crowd would fill unexpectedly. We saw a 45 go to 60 while we waited, and our actual was 55. But the WDW posted time started at 60 (when we got in line) and jumped to 80 while we were in line.

The WDW times were consistently wrong. Just wrong. We had my MIL with us, and she was forever saying “wait, did that sign say X? Is this line really X long?” And we would have to explain again that the posted time was not the actual time.

The thing to understand isthat TP is only as accurate as the last person who posted - the last person who finished waiting. You are just STARTING to wait. So the line could have changed while that other person was in line. It’s a good idea to refresh a couple times while waiting to see if the times are trending in an unfavorable direction.

 

[HydroGuy]

As I said above I think they only partially use reported wait times. They also have statistical data that I am guessing uses Disney’s reported wait times and adjusts from there. And also historical models.

 

[DisneyFive]

Yes, as far as I am aware they use past statistical data from actual waits primarily. In general it is far more accurate than Disney’s posted times.

Dan

 

[LSUfan4444]

Are there any free options for actual wait times (or another alternative) other than TP? I let my subscription expire and yes I am being cheap LOL but not sure I want to renew for $18 for one day in the parks and only using the app for actual standby times?

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

We also see lots of reports about inflated wait times by Disney near park closing times.

Yes, Disney does intentionally inflate wait times in the evening to discourage late riders. This technique is called Line Stacking and they are very good at it. We first read about this in the 1998 Unofficial Guide and have been using it to our advantage ever since.

Another thing to keep in mind is that many Touring Plan users won’t report these low wait times in the evenings either.

Let’s say you find a posted wait of 80 minutes at Rise of the Resistance about a half hour before closing time. However, the actual wait is only 10 minutes. Are you going to punch that time into the app so that other guests know about it, or are you going to keep that info to yourself then hop back in line for another quick reride.

 

[Scalemaster34]

I tried TP... Found their statistical data, just didn't work with today's reality. Neither their touring plans nor wait times reflected the reality of crowds today. I did try adding my wait times, but often I was too busy to add it, or didn't track it as closely as should have.

Now it did work pretty well last Feb when we went, but later in May and Sept it was just off. I'm an old spreadsheet planned, so kind of got into the planning of a trip. But in today's world of 7AM Genie+.... best laid plans.

Yes Disney's own data is often wrong... sometimes it's due to it's a lagging indicator - An attraction shows a short wait, everyone heads over.... you don't know it's wait has doubled, till someone waits that long. Then the ride shows a really long wait time, and everyone avoids it.... till the wait drops. But too they sometimes it's used at park closing to get guest to "move on along".

 

[Lewisc]

On average TP might be a.little bit better then Disney's BUT a few examples. TSM disney showed a 45 minute wait, TP 10. Actual wait was closer to 50 minutes. 2 tracks were down. Remy About an hour vs 20 minutes. As I waited in line the TP kept increasing. After15 minutes in line TP time was similar to Disney.

Disney wants your actual wsit to be less then posted time. Guest satisfaction is better if you wait less then posted times.

TP wants their wait time to be less then Disney's, subscriber satisfaction.

My understanding is wait times aren't updated once the projected wsit timebus beyond park closing

 

[reddog21]

I have always just used Disney wait times and it's have been good enough for me. Have I missed a ride that stated a 40 minute wait that was actually 10 minutes probably but oh well that's they way
it goes. Wait times fluctuate so much that I would never pay for a service. It's like going in to a store you walk in there's no one in line quickly grab what you need head back now there's 100 people in line and your left wondering if you missed a free giveaway.

 

[Tgoody]

I follow @WDWWait on twitter. Each day they put up details of average wait times and data for each park and ride. I usually start looking at it the week before our trip to guage what it may be like. It is a great source of data and info.

 

[gharter]

We had good luck with TP for our last trip. It certainly is much more useful when many are posting wait times instead of a few.
We noticed our last 2 trips, that there seem to be far fewer posting wait times now than pre-covid. Not sure why there would be a difference. We found the posted times were hit or miss.

 

[BrightMorningStar]

I don’t know why it would be any different than pre/Covid since it relies on guests who are in line to report waits the same which is how it’s always been.

And the scanned red tags.