ACTUAL data on ride wait times...

[DavidNYC]

There is NO SUCH THING as actual data. If someone got on line and waited an hour - by the time they're in the front of the line and say they waited an hour that data is already out of date. And as for someone getting on line when the wait says 60 minutes. There is NO actual data other than an estimate you can make assuming that things will run normally for the next 60 minutes - which we know is not always the case.

EVERYONE - I repeat - EVERYONE is just making estimates based on various that they do know but which are always subject to fluctuations based on things they don't. Disney wait times are basically as good as anyone else's but perhaps inflated a little as people are happy when wait times are less than posted.

 

[godfather927]

There is NO SUCH THING as actual data. If someone got on line and waited an hour - by the time they're in the front of the line and say they waited an hour that data is already out of date. And as for someone getting on line when the wait says 60 minutes. There is NO actual data other than an estimate you can make assuming that things will run normally for the next 60 minutes - which we know is not always the case.

EVERYONE - I repeat - EVERYONE is just making estimates based on various that they do know but which are always subject to fluctuations based on things they don't. Disney wait times are basically as good as anyone else's but perhaps inflated a little as people are happy when wait times are less than posted.

I think you mean to say, there's no such thing as REAL-TIME data. Because everything else you describe is historical data, which is very much still considered actual data. Even the best prediction models still need to be based on a ground-truth source of information and that's exactly what someone provides when they report how long their particular wait in line was.

 

[lentesta]

I guess I misunderstood how Lines worked. I thought it did use feedback from people at the parks, but also used statistical models based on past data. As in, it knows that if Disney says a wait time at X is 60 minutes it usually means 42 minutes in actual time. That is how it is able to project out wait times for the day by combining what is being reported now with how things typically (statistically) change during the day.

Am I misunderstanding?

I'm reasonably sure this is close to how it works. There's an intraday adjustment process that looks at things like these for each attraction:

• The current posted wait time
• What we thought that posted wait time would be
• Any recent actual wait times
• Any recent actual wait times for similar/nearby/in-the-same-park attractions (and how they look)
• Recent downtime
• Recent downtime at nearby attractions

I think these things are weighted. So, for example, if Disney says the 7DMT wait time is 60 and several real people submit wait times of 80, we'll adjust accordingly.

There's a lot going on behind the scenes that I'm not going to pretend to understand.

 

[Tom_E_D]

I'm reasonably sure this is close to how it works. There's an intraday adjustment process that looks at things like these for each attraction:

• The current posted wait time
• What we thought that posted wait time would be
• Any recent actual wait times
• Any recent actual wait times for similar/nearby/in-the-same-park attractions (and how they look)
• Recent downtime
• Recent downtime at nearby attractions

I think these things are weighted. So, for example, if Disney says the 7DMT wait time is 60 and several real people submit wait times of 80, we'll adjust accordingly.

There's a lot going on behind the scenes that I'm not going to pretend to understand.

I thought you were the guy who invented the Lines app. Has the current version moved that far beyond what you invented or were you merely the guy who hired the inventor of the original version?

 

[lentesta]

On average TP might be a.little bit better then Disney's BUT a few examples. TSM disney showed a 45 minute wait, TP 10. Actual wait was closer to 50 minutes. 2 tracks were down. Remy About an hour vs 20 minutes. As I waited in line the TP kept increasing. After15 minutes in line TP time was similar to Disney.

Disney wants your actual wsit to be less then posted time. Guest satisfaction is better if you wait less then posted times.

If you know the time of day for TSM, I'd love to look at what's going on there. One of the things we noted for last week's Wall Street Journal article on downtime is that TSM, specifcally, is affected by downtime at SDD. That's hard to predict.

The last time I checked (last year), around 75% of Disney's wait times overestimated your actual wait. So 25% of the time they underestimated. I think this might have been specific to just G+ or ILL attractions. We were approached by class-action legal firms who had the same idea as you, so we did the analysis.

TP wants their wait time to be less then Disney's, subscriber satisfaction.

Dude.

 

[lentesta]

I thought you were the guy who invented the Lines app. Has the current version moved that far beyond what you invented or were you merely the guy who hired the inventor of the original version?

I did the touring plan algorithm and code. We have data scientists for modeling. I'm definitely not smart enough to do all that, and I don't know of any one person that is. And I definitely can't do the app work - that's an entirely separate set of developers.

Here's Popular Science on our process.

 

[bloomcruisers]

I remember back in the day when the CM at the line entrance would give some people entering the line a tag that they had scanned indicating the person had entered at a specific time. Then another CM at the boarding area would scan the tag to get actual wait time info. I haven't seen those being used in a long time. Do magic bands now provide that info without needing to be tapped or do they get it some other way?

 

[Scalemaster34]

I remember back in the day when the CM at the line entrance would give some people entering the line a tag that they had scanned indicating the person had entered at a specific time. Then another CM at the boarding area would scan the tag to get actual wait time info. I haven't seen those being used in a long time. Do magic bands now provide that info or do they get it some other way?

Yeah Magic Bands and people's phones with the App installed..... allow Disney to track your movements in the lines, and most everywhere else on property.

Disney has the data and the ability to utilize that along with historical data... THEY KNOW. It's a matter of just how much they use the data to info vs control. 100% I think wait times at park closing is a "control" thing... But most the reset of the day, I think they are trying to let guest know how long their wait will be... withing a reasonable margin of error. Ride breaks down, you'll wait longer. If a big show got out ten minutes before you got in line... you'll wait longer. If you on the tail end of a long wait time, you will likly wait less.

 

[DavidNYC]

I think you mean to say, there's no such thing as REAL-TIME data. Because everything else you describe is historical data, which is very much still considered actual data. Even the best prediction models still need to be based on a ground-truth source of information and that's exactly what someone provides when they report how long their particular wait in line was.

Yes. But far too many people in their postings make it clear they don’t understand this. Everyone is making guesses and people tend only to notice when the guess is off and assume there was some intent behind it. Historical data is relevant for actual long term trends over time. And Disney has far more of that than anyone else. But on any particular line at any particular moment - the wait time may be far off because the reality on the ground differs from what the long term data says is typical. Just overall way too much meaningless discussion about differences in wait time estimates.

 

[Lewisc]

If you know the time of day for TSM, I'd love to look at what's going on there. One of the things we noted for last week's Wall Street Journal article on downtime is that TSM, specifcally, is affected by downtime at SDD. That's hard to predict.

It was mid morning, earlier this year. TSM was down for an hour or so. When it came back only one track was operating. Your time would have been close, if all 3 tracks were operating. Disney's time was much longer then your app, and was on the money.

 

[lentesta]

It was mid morning, earlier this year. TSM was down for an hour or so. When it came back only one track was operating. Your time would have been close, if all 3 tracks were operating. Disney's time was much longer then your app, and was on the money.

Cool. If you recall the date, let me know. I'd love to look at the downtime and see what happened. Thanks again.

 

[Mrs.AMC]

There is NO SUCH THING as actual data. If someone got on line and waited an hour - by the time they're in the front of the line and say they waited an hour that data is already out of date. And as for someone getting on line when the wait says 60 minutes. There is NO actual data other than an estimate you can make assuming that things will run normally for the next 60 minutes - which we know is not always the case.

EVERYONE - I repeat - EVERYONE is just making estimates based on various that they do know but which are always subject to fluctuations based on things they don't. Disney wait times are basically as good as anyone else's but perhaps inflated a little as people are happy when wait times are less than posted.

Plus, say a guest enters (even using the red cards, which may or may not be in use now) and then right behind them a group of 20+ enters, the guests who go behind them will have a very different wait than the guest who went in front of that big group. Especially in a slow loading ride. I makes wait times nearly impossible to get accurately, some impossible to get even close. Most likely the displayed wait time shown won't have updated to account for said large group

 

[fireflyer]

I love Touring Plans for making them a maximized day schedule in advance. For the last visit, we didn’t follow our TP pre-plan exactly because Genie+ and $ILL shuffled around the parks a good bit…. But Having the plan pre-made helped us to make good decisions about the order to reserve Genie rides, and helped us salvage time-gaps caused by Genie’s scheduling unpredictability.

And I love that TP let’s you save your plans. This Christmas I’ll use our plan from last trip along w Memory Maker & cell photos to make a scrapbook of our trip for my young park-goer.

I’m going to make a larger effort next spring to submit my line-waits in the TP Lines app. The Disney line estimates were horribly wrong on the last trip, all day, due to ride failures. And then in the last hour, Disney’s posted waits were just plain lies.

I’m a data fan and would love to give my data to someone who can do some good with it instead of using it to manipulate my movements in-park.