Accuweather question

[Barbi]

How accurate is the 15 day accuweather forcast??? I'll be there from the 10th thru the 13th and the temps are dropping . I know it's 15 days off but i really hope they're off a bit until the forecast gets closer.

Barbi

 

[rwingerd]

Accuweather is about as accurate as any other forecaster. We been checking daily for our trip next week and the forecast has been changing daily. When looking out 15 days use it as a guide, but expect it to change daily.

 

[antmaril]

How accurate is the 15 day accuweather forcast??? I'll be there from the 10th thru the 13th and the temps are dropping . I know it's 15 days off but i really hope they're off a bit until the forecast gets closer.

Barbi

We arrive on the 8th and I noticed the predictions are dropping too. Yesterday when I checked, they predicted a high of 77 degrees on our first day, now it's down to 66!! I really think it's a little too early and, hopefully, the temps will rise. However, it is January and you never know.

Oh well, we will dress in layers. What else can you do?

 

[Lucky82061]

Anything more than about 3-5 days out is a crap shoot. That's what my buddy who works for the weather channel told me anyway. 10-day forecasts and longer are a "best guess" from computer models and can be horribly inaccurate. So while it is a good guide, you will have to check about 5 days before to get something reliable.

 

[safetymom]

Try www.wftv.com for a great local weather station here in Orlando.

 

[Barbi]

Thanks everyone, I'll look closer as the 5 day mark gets near. antmaril have a great time and the way I look at it is, it's warmer in Disney than where I'm coming from!!!

 

[antmaril]

Barbi:

Thanks. I hope you have a great time too. Yes, the weather in Florida has to be better than Michigan. We are looking forward to our trip.

Have fun!

 

[NoKatMom]

Along with checking accuweather, you can also check the national weather service. Who knows if they are right but they at least give the actual percentage for chance of showers.

 

[jcemom]

For the past several trips I've used the accuweather forecast to track our vacation dates starting at 15 days out. I haven't found them to be accurate more than 3 days out. I wonder why they even forecast 15 days in advance.

 

[Simba's Mom]

How accurate is the 15 day accuweather forcast??? I'll be there from the 10th thru the 13th and the temps are dropping . I know it's 15 days off but i really hope they're off a bit until the forecast gets closer.

Barbi

Hi! I'll also be there those days, and just noticed the same thing. However, I know from much experience that the forecast always changes several times as you get closer to the actual dates. It's a tradition for me that starting 15 days out, I go to accuweather every day and read the "new" forecast. Then I get to think (as I did today)-"Boy, it's going to be really [cold/rainy/sunny, whatever] when I'm [in this case, watching Fantasmic]. I know the forecast right now for those dates probably isn't at all accurate, but it's fun anyways.

 

[mouseketeer_mom]

ooh! ooh! something I actually know something about! As an Accuweather professional subscriber, I can give you the scoop on the 15 day forecast... this applies to all long range forecasts

The 15 day forecast is generated by computer models. These computer programs take all exhisting data, and run a likely scenerio for upcoming weather. When predicting long range weather (ie 15 days out) even the slightest shift in current conditions can drastically change the outcome. Now, looking at the weather predicted just a few days out, the models tend to be more accurate. The models for this range of forecasting are run every 6 hours. Hence, a change in the forecast can occur every 6 hours.

So, what good is it? Well, you have to look for a pattern. Are the temps generally trending upward? Do more runs than not predict some form of precip? etc....

If you really want to know what the experts think about weather that far out, read their blogs/discussions. These can be found on Accuweather and NOAA.gov. On NOAA, for any location, on the bottom left of the page will give you several links, click on "forecast discussion".

oh, and your right, I'm a weather junkie

 

[middleofamerica]

Accuweather is notoriously more inaccurate than the weather channel...and that doesn't say too much. They both use computer models with a limited amount of quality control. Don't forget, it was Accuweather that predicted death and destruction all up and down in the East Coast (including NYC) from the horrible 2006 Hurricane Season. They are a business and like to get their name out there however they can. Had they been right, they would have tooted their own horns, but they are trying to forget what their 2006 prediction was.

Accuweather is group of meteorologists that are trying to predict the weather for every spot in the country while they are in Pennsylvania. I'd go with a good local TV website or the local National Weather Service if you want more accuracy. And even that will only go out about 5-7 days.