A serious discussion on future 'guestimates' of MF's..

[mustinjourney]

Eh...I don't pay rack rate. Never have, never will. I've been to WDW about 25 times (give or take) and what I paid 20 years ago isn't super far off from today's discount prices. If I average my nightly room cost over all my trips (some value, a few moderate, but mostly deluxe) it's around $250-$300/night. Our upcoming trip will be 11 nights in Club Level accommodations and our nightly room cost is less than the cost to rent points for a studio at $14/point, and we'd much rather be in a club level room.

When Disney eliminates all discount programs, DVC might be more attractive, but when we are getting 35-40% off rack rate every time, DVC ends up being substantially more expensive over the long run. I can just stop going if the price hits a tipping point. As it stands, I average a trip every other year. I don't need to go more than that, as I live in Disneyland's backyard.

Edit:
I just pulled out my folio from our honeymoon at WL in June 2001. Our room rate (taxes all in) was $261. Club Level room. I entered the same dates for this year and my discount price would be $412 taxes in, same room type. The cost (using a discount) has increased about 2% per year for this room since 2001. Not a big increase. Looking at the rack rates only, the increase has been 2.7%. So, still less than 3% per year. In contrast, the cost per point just to buy in to DVC between 2001 and 2018 has increased 5%...

what discount are you using to get that price?

 

[DLgal]

what discount are you using to get that price?

The Armed Forces Salute discount for active duty and retired military members. Husband is active duty but they extend the discount to spouses so he doesn't always travel with us. He will retire in 2 years and continue to be eligible, as long as Disney keeps offering the discount.

 

[mustinjourney]

The Armed Forces Salute discount for active duty and retired military members. Husband is active duty but they extend the discount to spouses so he doesn't always travel with us. He will retire in 2 years and continue to be eligible, as long as Disney keeps offering the discount.

Thanks for the reply. For a minute I thought I might have missed some big secret to getting good deals on rooms.

One thing you might consider is to add an "ETA" in your earlier post identifying that your discount is a military discount. That way anyone reading this thread for the first time (like me) won't be confused.

 

[DLgal]

Thanks for the reply. For a minute I thought I might have missed some big secret to getting good deals on rooms.

One thing you might consider is to add an "ETA" in your earlier post identifying that your discount is a military discount. That way anyone reading this thread for the first time (like me) won't be confused.

I'm sure I meentioned it in a later post.

This discount started around 2003. Prior to that I used other room discount offers. Our honeymoon we got a measly 10% discount because we had a WDW wedding. The night of our wedding our room was free. That was probably the LOWEST discount we ever got. We went to WDW in October 2003, after my husband's first combat deployment to Iraq (just as the war started there, he was one of the first units in). We stayed at POR for $59/night and were given two free 5 day park hoppers. That was a special military deal offered that morphed into the current Armed Forces Salute which also provides a 50% discount on 4 and 5 day hoppers. That entire week long stay cost us under $1000 (including food and souvenirs) at a moderate.

 

[Bing Showei]

I'm sure I meentioned it in a later post.

This discount started around 2003. Prior to that I used other room discount offers. Our honeymoon we got a measly 10% discount because we had a WDW wedding. The night of our wedding our room was free. That was probably the LOWEST discount we ever got. We went to WDW in October 2003, after my husband's first combat deployment to Iraq (just as the war started there, he was one of the first units in). We stayed at POR for $59/night and were given two free 5 day park hoppers. That was a special military deal offered that morphed into the current Armed Forces Salute which also provides a 50% discount on 4 and 5 day hoppers. That entire week long stay cost us under $1000 (including food and souvenirs) at a moderate.

Thank you, and your family, for your service to our country. I’m glad Disney takes care of you and hope they continue to do so for years and years to come.

If your free wedding night, moderate/value stays, and the military discounts are all factoring into the equation (in terms of averaging your cost per stay), you can see how most people aren’t going to be able to replicate your savings when doing a comparison to DVC.

For the rest of us, paying for DVC will beat out paying cash (discounts not withstanding) for the same rooms and same number of stays over time, every time. Full stop.

One can argue that’s comparing apples to oranges (two very different products), but if you’re going to compare apples to oranges you should keep in mind you’ve got a serious James-and-the-Giant-Apple business going on in your equation.

 

[DLgal]

Thank you, and your family, for your service to our country. I’m glad Disney takes care of you and hope they continue to do so for years and years to come.

If your free wedding night, moderate/value stays, and the military discounts are all factoring into the equation (in terms of averaging your cost per stay), you can see how most people aren’t going to be able to replicate your savings when doing a comparison to DVC.

For the rest of us, paying for DVC will beat out paying cash (discounts not withstanding) for the same rooms and same number of stays over time, every time. Full stop.

One can argue that’s comparing apples to oranges (two very different products), but if you’re going to compare apples to oranges you should keep in mind you’ve got a serious James-and-the-Giant-Apple business going on in your equation.

I did acknowledge that. However, there are still often public room only discounts available in addition to special travel agent offers (often 50% through certain travel agencies that cannot be mentioned here). I would guess, on average, people can save 20% on Deluxe level accommodations if they work the discounts, which are still plentiful (they just announced a summer room only offer with a 25% discount at Deluxes).

Anyway, I was responding to the comparison to Rack Rate prices, which I guess you could use, but only if that is how you typically pay for rooms at Disney. I started paying for my own trips as a college student in 1998, and always booked discounted rates, never rack. Sometimes, the miiltary discount is unavailable for our dates so I book through Disney using a discount. If no discount, I won't go. Simple as that.

I know DVC works for many people. And it IS a discount over rack rates, but the degree to which it is a discount is what is important in determining whether it is a good value for any given family or not.

My sister is strongly considering a DVC contract at Aulani because they traveled there last December and fell in love, and want to return there at the same time every year (she is a teacher so limited travel windows). They stayed on a 30% discount offer the third week of December.

They did the tour there and were fed SO MUCH misinformation I feel like Disney is breaking some laws with the blatant lying. They were told that maintenance fees were fixed for the life of the contract at the current price. They were told that contracts were only 50 years for people who bought in the FIRST year they started selling Aulani and decrease by one year for every year since then, so if they buy right now, they will have a 45 year contract. They were told that ALL DVC properties have the same maintenance fees and cost the same amount per point. They were told they were GUARANTEED to be able to book at their home resort at 11 months. They were told DVC would be equivalent to a savings of 50% off rack rates for the life of their contract. They were told they would always get discounts on their Disneyland annual pass. On and on. My head was spinning. They were very close to actually signing a contract. I'm so glad they didn't. My point was, this guide was full of bad information and completely downplayed the MF as a cost of ownership and wouldn't even tell them how much per point it would be (his exact wording was, "it's a couple dollars per point...you won't even notice it"). With guides like that, it is no wonder why people come out of these meetings thinking DVC is a great deal.

 

[wnielsen1]

They were told that contracts were only 50 years for people who bought in the FIRST year they started selling Aulani and decrease by one year for every year since then, so if they buy right now, they will have a 45 year contract.

That is true. The property is subject to a ground lease which determines the expiration date.

 

[DLgal]

That is true. The property is subject to a ground lease which determines the expiration date.

Really? Is this just for Aulani?

 

[Ben E N]

Really? Is this just for Aulani?

No. All properties.

 

[Bing Showei]

They did the tour there and were fed SO MUCH misinformation I feel like Disney is breaking some laws with the blatant lying.

This is the reason I ended up dumping my first guide. She was pushing Copper Creek despite our clear interest in a "sold-out" resort, told us we were getting the "extra" points (they were current UY points), gave me a special limited-time offer on some developer credits (those were good for several months on the public DVC site, even though her printout literature showed a date 7 days later) and told me I could break even on my purchase in a few years. While she didn't blatantly lie like your sister's guide is reported to have, she did leave a lot of room for me to interpret freely.

At one point, she wrote down "$7.33" on a piece of paper and said "That's all it costs per point in annual dues." [True, at that moment.] "And in the years to come, all you'll be paying are annual dues for your room." [True again.]

But those two true statements together seem to suggest something that I could've easily filled in on my own. I'm not saying your sister didn't get a bum guide, but I will say they are remarkable at helping "guide" you to a certain conclusion.

In any case, I think you may underestimate how informed some of the decisions are that people make buying into DVC. Sure, there are some who drink the kool-aid freely, but a lot of us, before ever putting in an offer, created multi-paged spreadsheets that highlight the cost breakdown of ownership, corrected for projected inflation. And despite the tens/hundreds of thousands that will be paid in annual dues, a lot of us made the decision that this was worth it for our family.

If no discount, I won't go. Simple as that.

And therein lies the most fundamental difference in the two products. You could make the argument that your freedom is of MUCH greater value than being shackled by DVC. That, I can buy. I will never argue that DVC will save one money. In fact, I'm certain it wont. But you seem wholly convinced that if one went the route of CRO with 20+% discounts for the same number stays, over the same number of years, that it would beat out DVC in cost. The numbers would argue otherwise.

 

[robinb]

I agree. It doesn't seem like people really understand how much a 3% annual increase is after 40 years. That $6.55/pt maintenance seems reasonable now, but in 40 years it becomes $21.37. Yikes! On a 200 point contract, you're talking over $4k per year in just MF.

This is what has always ultimately kept me from joining DVC. Looking at the total upfront costs (excluding park tickets, airline tickets, food during trips, and all the other stuff you buy on vacation) over the life of the contract, it's just way too much money.

I bought BWV in 2002 when the MFs were 3.92. They are now $6.55. That's a 72% increase. I can't find rack rates for 2003, but I found rack rates for moderate resorts in 2005. My MF were $4.41 in 2005, or an increase of 48.53%.

In the meantime, rack rates at POR have increased at a far greater rate (sorry about the formatting).

2005 2018 Difference %increase
DVC $4.41 $6.55 $2.14 48.53%

POR
Std value $134.00 $232.57 $98.57 73.56%
Std Regular $149.00 $272.29 $123.29 82.74%
Std Peak $169.00 $266.29 $97.29 57.57%
Std Holiday $184.00 $340.00 $156.00 84.78%
Wtr Value $149.00 $285.43 $136.43 91.56%
Wtr Regular $165.00 $341.29 $176.29 106.84%
Wtr Peak $194.00 $319.57 $125.57 64.73%
Wtr Holiday $209.00 $378.00 $169.00 80.86%

2018
Peak = Summer
Water = River

ETA: here is an updated chart

2005 2018 Difference %increase
DVC $4.41 $6.55 $2.14 48.53%

POR
Std value $134.00 $228.00 $94.00 70.15%
Std Regular $149.00 $272.00 $123.00 82.55%
Std Peak $169.00 $265.00 $96.00 56.80%
Std Holiday $184.00 $339.00 $155.00 84.24%
Wtr Value $149.00 $281.00 $132.00 88.59%
Wtr Regular $165.00 $341.00 $176.00 106.67%
Wtr Peak $194.00 $320.00 $126.00 64.95%
Wtr Holiday $209.00 $378.00 $169.00 80.86%

2018
Value 1/26-2/1 Std Avg 73.44%
Regular 2/25-3/3 Wtr Avg 85.27%
Peak 6/2 - 6/8
Holiday 12/22-12/28

 

[DLgal]

I bought BWV in 2002 when the MFs were 3.92. They are now $6.55. That's a 72% increase. I can't find rack rates for 2003, but I found rack rates for moderate resorts in 2005. My MF were $4.41 in 2005, or an increase of 48.53%.

In the meantime, rack rates at POR have increased at a far greater rate (sorry about the formatting).

2005 2018 Difference %increase
DVC $4.41 $6.55 $2.14 48.53%

POR
Std value $134.00 $232.57 $98.57 73.56%
Std Regular $149.00 $272.29 $123.29 82.74%
Std Peak $169.00 $266.29 $97.29 57.57%
Std Holiday $184.00 $340.00 $156.00 84.78%
Wtr Value $149.00 $285.43 $136.43 91.56%
Wtr Regular $165.00 $341.29 $176.29 106.84%
Wtr Peak $194.00 $319.57 $125.57 64.73%
Wtr Holiday $209.00 $378.00 $169.00 80.86%

2018
Peak = Summer
Water = River

I think you may have flipped two rates above (water regular and water peak 2018 rates). Correcting for that, your average price increase across the board is only 66%. Not that far off from 48% in the same time period.

Regardless, moderates have increased at the greatest percentage over time, and I think Deluxes need to be the comparison here. Particularly a deluxe like BWI which was always a DVC property.

Again, these are rack rates. Anyone paying $378 per night at a moderate needs to have his head examined, IMO.

 

[mustinjourney]

I think you may have flipped two rates above (water regular and water peak 2018 rates). Correcting for that, your average price increase across the board is only 66%. Not that far off from 48% in the same time period.

Regardless, moderates have increased at the greatest percentage over time, and I think Deluxes need to be the comparison here. Particularly a deluxe like BWI which was always a DVC property.

Again, these are rack rates. Anyone paying $378 per night at a moderate needs to have his head examined, IMO.

if you're just trying to compare how much percentage something has increased -- as the poster was doing -- whether you use the posted rack rate or a possible 20% discount of rack rate, you end up with the same exact result. So the poster's point about the percent increase is still valid.

 

[DLgal]

if you're just trying to compare how much percentage something has increased -- as the poster was doing -- whether you use the posted rack rate or a possible 20% discount of rack rate, you end up with the same exact result. So the poster's point about the percent increase is still valid.

I know. Room rates have increased at a pace slightly higher than DVC DUES, but the buy in cost for points purchases has outpaced both those metrics.

 

[robinb]

I think you may have flipped two rates above (water regular and water peak 2018 rates). Correcting for that, your average price increase across the board is only 66%. Not that far off from 48% in the same time period.

Regardless, moderates have increased at the greatest percentage over time, and I think Deluxes need to be the comparison here. Particularly a deluxe like BWI which was always a DVC property.

Again, these are rack rates. Anyone paying $378 per night at a moderate needs to have his head examined, IMO.

I noticed that too! I didn't switch them, but the data I used from Mouse Savers may have been wrong. I just checked over at the POR website (http://www.portorleans.org/) and cross referenced MS's seasons with the POR daily rack rates. I noted the dates I used below.

The average increase over all season available in 2005 (there are many more now) is 73% for standard rooms and 85% for water view rooms.


2005 2018 Difference %increase
DVC $4.41 $6.55 $2.14 48.53%

POR
Std value $134.00 $228.00 $94.00 70.15%
Std Regular $149.00 $272.00 $123.00 82.55%
Std Peak $169.00 $265.00 $96.00 56.80%
Std Holiday $184.00 $339.00 $155.00 84.24%
Wtr Value $149.00 $281.00 $132.00 88.59%
Wtr Regular $165.00 $341.00 $176.00 106.67%
Wtr Peak $194.00 $320.00 $126.00 64.95%
Wtr Holiday $209.00 $378.00 $169.00 80.86%

2018
Value 1/26-2/1 Std Avg 73.44%
Regular 2/25-3/3 Wtr Avg 85.27%
Peak 6/2 - 6/8
Holiday 12/22-12/28

 

[robinb]

... and because I am a glutton for punishment. Here is a chart with the BWV points for each of the seasons using the dates listed above. I've compared the increase in MFs for the week with the increase in the rack rate for the same week.

So, in Holiday season I pay $293 more for a week in a BW View Studio than I would have in 2005. At POR people are paying $1183 more for a week at POR in a Water View.

SV Points Increase POR Std Inc PV Points Increase POR Wtr Inc
Value 66 $141.24 $658.00 92 $196.88 $924.00
Regular 89 $190.46 $861.00 111 $237.54 $1,232.00
Peak 87 $186.18 $672.00 105 $224.70 $882.00
Holiday 105 $224.70 $1,085.00 137 $293.18 $1,183.00

 

[mustinjourney]

I know. Room rates have increased at a pace slightly higher than DVC DUES, but the buy in cost for points purchases has outpaced both those metrics.

I'm not so sure that is true -- but in any case, the initial buy-in is actually an asset that you can sell at a point into the future and get money back. if you buy resale today and sell 10 years from now, you will likely get a small profit back on that purchase. heck -- I've seen a recent report where someone flipped a VGC contract a month after closing for a $40 per point profit (minus transactional fees).

If buying direct -- the math changes a little -- but it's still not awful. Particularly since, as you pointed out, the MFs are the primary expense over the life of the contract.

 

[tjkraz]

I know. Room rates have increased at a pace slightly higher than DVC DUES, but the buy in cost for points purchases has outpaced both those metrics.

But the purchase isn't a recurring annual expense. It's one time. Has the buy-in cost outpaced room rates? Sure. But that's of little consequence since you can't go back in time and purchase at a lower price. Today...right now...it is quite simple to evaluate the cost of a 2018 direct or resale purchase, amortized over the remaining life of the contract, and fit it into a value analysis.

Doesn't matter a bit if the buy in price goes to $240 next year and $300 the year after that. All that matters is what YOU pay at the time of acquisition.

(Actually the price increases do matter, relative to the present value of the contract. As others have pointed out, most DVC purchases have actually appreciated in value. Every one of my DVC contracts could be sold today for more than I paid. Some were purchased 15 years ago.)

 

[Frederic Civish]

In any case as to property taxes, if they did increase on BLT despite it's relative smaller acreage vs other DVC's in WDW, wouldn't that mean that the land itself is gaining value? If that IS the case (that the land gains in value) then wouldn't (I hope I hope!) the cash prices at resorts would also increase and thus offset any future increases in MF's with higher values per night?

As taxes go up, you can be pretty sure that cash prices will go up to a commensurate about, if it is possible for Disney to arrange them, and to try to keep them in lockstep. However Disney might not always be able to raise rates. In a bad economy or a period of time when there are few visitors to Disney, raising room rates and cash prices will be difficult. One reason Disney is raising cash prices so quickly now is because the economy actually has been good and demand is very high.

If prices for cash room go up more, then the relative value of the DVC units will be even better, if the DVC units cost less and do not go up in an equal amount. However that is a relative value. If cash prices rise quickly and if DVC expenses also go up quickly then the DVC expenses are still high even if they may be better than the cash prices. That is probably something that it would be better for us to avoid if possible

 

[Deb & Bill]

As taxes go up, you can be pretty sure that cash prices will go up to a commensurate about, if it is possible for Disney to arrange them, and to try to keep them in lockstep. However Disney might not always be able to raise rates. In a bad economy or a period of time when there are few visitors to Disney, raising room rates and cash prices will be difficult. One reason Disney is raising cash prices so quickly now is because the economy actually has been good and demand is very high.

If prices for cash room go up more, then the relative value of the DVC units will be even better, if the DVC units cost less and do not go up in an equal amount. However that is a relative value. If cash prices rise quickly and if DVC expenses also go up quickly then the DVC expenses are still high even if they may be better than the cash prices. That is probably something that it would be better for us to avoid if possible

Creakkkkkkkkkkkkk. Reopening a five month old thread.